Our analysis indicates that climatechange will have mixed impacts on Indiana’s energydemand and supply. Residential energydemand is expected to decline by about 3 percent, due to the importance of heating in that sector, while commercial demand is expected to increase by about 5 percent, due to the greater reliance on cooling in that sector. Changes in per capita demand in the state’s urban areas follow a similar pattern, with 8 to 28 percent decreases in residential and commercial heating demand and 18 to 38 percent increases in residential cooling demand due primarily to warmer summers and winters. At the same time, our analysis projects that changes in energydemand have a small impact on the projectedenergysupply mix, which is influenced much more by projected trends in future fuel and technology prices. In this respect, we project that coal is likely to be replaced as a source of electricity by natural gas, wind, and/or solar by 2080, due mainly to expected trends in fuel prices and technology costs. We also illustrate how modest policies such as a low carbon price or an investment tax credit for renewable energy could shift the distribution of future energysupply even more heavily in favor of low- or zero-carbon energy options. In addition, we note other important potential effects of climatechange on energy infrastructure. These include possible limits on generation due to changes in the availability and temperature of water for cooling, greater threats to power lines and other infrastructure from higher temperatures and potentially stronger storms, and changes in the use of biomass as a feedstock due to impacts on crop yields.
Hydropower exploits resources that vary temporally, and this affects the reliability of the hydro energysupply. However, the controllable output provided by hydropower facilities that have storage can be used to meet peak electricity demands and help to balance out electricity systems that have large amounts of variable energy generation (IPCC 2011). Conventionally, hydropower potential is forecast based on the 90% dependable river flow (Jain and Singh 2003). However, changes in this flow due to climatechange will alter the energy potential or even result in the operation becoming suboptimal where a plant is designed for a particular flow distribution (Iimi 2007). For example, in the past decade, hydroelectric plants in East African countries such as Kenya and Tanzania have been affected by drought, with resultant country-wide electricity shortages (Loisulie 2010).
Future projections suggest that climatechange will exacerbate these trends and cause even more substantial changes. Ecotones, from forest to tundra in the north and to steppe in the south, are very vulnerable to climatechange. In particular, increases in atmo- spheric water demand could lead to water stress and higher tree mortality. Changes in species composition toward better adapted tree species may buffer productivity losses, although they will also alter forest composition and structure and hence the forest land- scape and its associated uses. Projectedclimatechange will also induce an increase in fire danger and fire intensity while defolia- tors and other pests and diseases could be stimulated by a warmer and drier climate. Such increased occurrence of disturbances could also affect biodiversity and vegetation distribution, especially in transition zones.
According to Nzau (2013), Kenya is also experiencing the impacts of climatechange. It is costing Kenya 2.4% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). He further states that; climate variability and change is impacting many sectors of the economy and there is a need for diversification at both national and local level to reduce on reliance on rainfed agriculture as the main source of livelihood for the local communities across Kenya. The agricultural sector is one of the major economic activity in Kenya, which accounts for about 30% of the GDP and 60% foreign exchange earner. It also forms the main source of employment (ICPAC, 2006). Some of the other sectors of the economy that are climate depended include; livestock keeping, hydro-energy generation, transport, and tourism. 60% of socio- economic activities are dependent on climate (WRI et al., 2007). Climate extreme such as floods and droughts have a high influence on the social-economic activities of the country and thus also affect performance of the country’s economy (GOK, 2013). Thus, understanding climate variability and change and its future scenario at a local scale is very important for economic growth and formulation of adaptation strategies that will increase the resilient of the local community.
they include increasing air and water temperatures, decreasing water availability in some regions and increasing intensity and frequency of storm events, flooding and sea level rise. Also, the impact of climatechange on the energy sector is often assessed in form of impacts on energysupply, demand, transmission, distribution and infrastructure; or indirect effects through other economic sectors. The most common aspect often analyzed in empirical literature is the demand and supply side. While the demand side examines climatechange effects on use of energy by consumers, the supply side considers the effects of climatechange on production, distribution and transmission of energy. The focus of this study would, however, be on energysupply. The relationship between climatechange and the energy sector is important especially considering the bi-directional flow between the two, where as energy use and production contributes to climatechange, policies are also targeted towards the energy industry in tackling the climatechange menace. With the energy sector been one of the key sectors most vulnerable to climatechange impact, coupled with the current epileptic nature of energysupply in Nigeria, there is a need to explore how energysupply will be affected in the face of the threats presented by climatechange. This is given the aim of government at increasing electricity generation capacity to 25,000MW by 2020 from the current installed capacity of 6500MW while also pledging to connect 75 per cent of the population to the grid from the current 40 per cent by 2025 (Gujba et al, 2010).
Although, urbanisation is not linked to climatechange, their combined impacts are important to consider. Over the last three decades, the Arab region has experienced a development boom, with rapid population growth. To meet the accompanying rising demand for food, many countries have prioritised food security and socio-economic development through policies to expand agricultural land and irrigated cultivation. However, they have failed to consider water’s limited availability and the need for conservation and demand management (UNDP, 2013: 41). Therefore, international freshwater law principles would need to be applied to mitigate complex risks along different sub-regions of a transboundary river basin (Kandeel, 2019).
These results are indicative of a need for regionally distinct strategies to adapt to climatechange. Some areas, particularly in the southern United States, will experience substantial increases in the “peakiness” of electricity demand, whereas others, such as the Northwest, may actually see decreases in average and peak loads as a result of climatechange. Some regions, such as the Northwest, currently have “winter peaks”: Most energy is con- sumed during the coldest hours of the year, because much of the heating load is borne by electricity. This regional heterogeneity in future peakiness will depend, of course, on appliance choices in the future. That is, regional differences are likely to persist in some form, although perhaps not in ways we can currently antic- ipate. In conclusion, these regional changes imply shifts in the need for new transmission and generation (or storage) capacity in particular.
viii. The impact of policies on transmission, distribution and balancing costs – The transmission and distribution costs in the analysis are based on data from price controls – Ofgem’s regulatory mechanism for setting the investment allowances of transmission and distribution companies. 115 These costs are driven by a number of factors, including the replacement of aging infrastructure, the connection of low-carbon generating capacity and the reinforcement of networks to cater for increased peak demand due to electrification of heat and transport. Not all of the connection of low-carbon generation and network reinforcement may be considered “additional as a result of policy” if it partly replaces aging infrastructure. Moreover any additional costs of investment needed to upgrade the network will be spread over a number of years. In addition, where polices drive load shifting in consumption or generally reduced consumption, this may save on the costs involved in improving network
In this framework, it seemed necessary to us, to include electricity demand for water withdrawals in the POLES model. For that reason, a water demand module, called GeoPol, is under construction in our Institute, aiming to project the water demand by sector use in each region of the POLES model. Exogenous data concerning the share of surface, underground, treated and desalinate water supply by country is under preparation as well. Furthermore, our technological database (TECHPOL) is enlarging with costs and performances of desalinated water technologies in order to better represent the competition between thermal and membrane processes. Many drivers affect electricity demand for fresh water: water demand, available water supply by source and technologies used to access, treat and manage water.
warehouse (for simplicity we assume only one warehouse, owned by the retailer) for a certain amount of time until the product is in demand by the retail store, and we assume in the base case that it is then trucked directly to the store, packaged in bulk. While in some cases a shipment may go through a secondary warehouse belonging to the retailer (or an intermediate distribution warehousing facility) before it is shipped to the actual store, we assume direct delivery from the wholesale warehouse to the retail store. Individual consumers drive by car from their homes to the nearest retail store to pick up the product and then return home. Of course the consumer’s trip to the retail store could include multiple stops or purposes, and this is discussed below in more detail. It should be noted that because the recording process itself (denoted in red in figures) was assumed to be similar between all 6 scenarios, it was not analyzed.
The GHP estimates are representative of the effect of climatechange on hydropower if all of the natural runoff could be captured. The effect of climatechange on DHP is an interme- diate estimate that takes into consideration the regulation of reservoirs as if they were operated for hydropower only. The combined direct and indirect impacts of climatechange on hydropower can be very complicated, e.g., the more frequent extreme heat and drought may reduce power generation ca- pacity in the future (Bartos and Chester, 2015) which may affect the electricity supply from the state grid and therefore change the demand of hydropower generation. Nevertheless, the strong linkage between climate–streamflow–hydropower potential is one of the main ways that climatechange af- fects hydropower. Climatechange can directly modulate re- gional water availability, such as the increased temperature and depressed precipitation may give rise to drought events (Dai et al., 2004), while more intensive and spatially concen- trated rainfall may result in more floods (Wasko et al., 2016). The consequent streamflow variations will then directly af- fect GHP and the reservoir storage which is associated with DHP. Besides the temperature and precipitation, several cli- mate variables can alter river streamflow (e.g., Tang et al., 2013; Liu et al., 2014) and then affect hydropower poten- tial. In this study, streamflow changes under changing cli- mate conditions are projected by GHMs, and most of them include several climate variables, but two models use only temperature and precipitation as input (see Table S1). There- fore, this study presents the compound effects of the changes of multiple climate variables on hydropower potential. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to identify the contributions of all climate variables to the changes of hydropower poten- tial. We limit the current analysis of meteorological forcing to a discussion on changes in temperature and precipitation, which are main drivers for streamflow projections.
production may be affected due to the loss of biodiversity or water scarcity which will eventually cause disruption of manufacturing processes. Extreme weather conditions could affect many operations of the Utility sector (e.g. transmission cables impacted by higher temperatures and greater electricity use during extreme heat). The proximity of energy generating plants may be subject to disruptions as their proximity to water renders them vulnerable to storm surges and rises in sea level. The Materials’ sector is vulnerable to precipitation patterns and water availability. Shortages of water could increase operational costs and could lead to increased competition for water between local communities and the operations sites. More heavy rains over shorter periods could cause flooding in transport infrastructures, disrupting roads so the delivery of products is compromised. Changing fuel regulations and carbon taxes may lead to financial penalties and loss of demand for products of the Consumer Discretionary’s sector. Additionally, sourcing materials may become more difficult resulting in price rises and resource constraints. The Industrials sector is vulnerable to physical risks, such as extreme weather events and rising sea levels, because the latter could cause production factories to shut down. It is obvious that all the aforementioned sectors run regulatory risks and potential reputational losses.
With regard to the historical significance, as shown in the graphs below, the three plants already show a trend towards an important reduction in flow and production (the production for Mengíbar has been reconstructed with the current configuration for the years prior to 1975, given that only since then has the plant had this specific configuration). The first is more significant conceptually, as the second may stem from technical reasons or design changes. Despite some logical data dispersion, the consistent decrease can be observed in Figure 10 for Cala as the dotted line showing the linear tendency in flow evolution. The reduction in flow, according to the linear tendency, is substantial between 1961 and 2012 (44% in Cala, 82% in Mengibar and 28% in Tranco). This fact is influenced by the rainy start of the 1960’s. However, tracing back to 1930 for the plants where information is available, we find reductions as well (33% in Cala and 73% in Mengibar).
Based on projected changes in thermoelectric and hydropower generating capacity under climatechange, we calculated changes in wholesale electricity prices, production and electricity producer surplus. We used scenarios of future installed power plant capacities, electricity exchange capacities, cost figures and electricity demand based on the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E 2010, 2011, 2012). Our calculations are based on the assumption that at each point in time electricity supply has to meet electricity demand. In addition, we assumed that existing power plants are used in order of their short-term marginal cost 6 . Country specific electricity supply curves were identified taking the cost for electricity imports into account. The wholesale price corresponds to the price where electricity supply meets demand, and the price at the wholesale market equals the production cost of the most expensive power plant in operation. We assumed a price elasticity of 0 for the demand for electricity, because changes in spot market prices have overall small impacts on end-user prices and demands. Equations (1a)–(1c) show the optimization approach (objective function) of our model. Equation (1b) reflects that electricity supply has to meet electricity demand, whereas electricity can be supplied either by using domestic power plants or by importing electricity from a foreign country. Equation (1c) describes the grid capacities, which could be used to export electricity from country n to country m.
Produced natural gas is primarily methane, but it also contains heavier hydrocarbons consisting of ethane (C 2 ), propane (C 3 ), butanes (C 4 ), and pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons (typically referred to as pentanes plus or C 5 +), all of which are referred to as natural gas liquids (NGLs). Natural gas also contains water and contaminants such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S). In Alberta, the production of all ethane, pentanes plus, and most propane and butanes are from the raw natural gas stream. Most of the NGL supply is recovered from the processing of natural gas at gas plants, although some pentanes plus is recovered as condensate at the field level and sold as product. Other sources of NGLs are crude oil refineries, where small volumes of propane and butanes are recovered, and from gases produced as by-products of bitumen upgrading, called off-gas. Off-gas is a mixture of hydrogen and light gases, including ethane, propane, and butanes. Most of the off-gas produced from oil sands upgraders is currently being used as fuel for oil sands operations. Coalbed methane (CBM) is generally dry gas, so it is not expected to contribute to future NGL reserves. Shale gas appears to have a wide range of liquids content, from lean to liquids-rich. Consequently, depending on development trends, shale gas may contribute significantly to the province’s NGL reserves in the future. 1
We consider three major stakeholder groups, the state government, the electrical distributor and the custom‐ ers. The state government sets the terms under which electricity is supplied. In Queensland this means equality in pricing across the state. This means that customers in Brisbane pay the same rate for electric‐ ity as in Birdsville, 1500 km to the west. The govern‐ ment also specifies a high level of reliability, 99.5%, which implies that there should be one level of redun‐ dancy at all locations in the distribution system. The state government also introduced very attractive buy‐ back tariffs to encourage residential customers to in‐ vest in photo‐voltaic panels. This program was so suc‐ cessful that the scheme was revised to reduce the buy‐ back tariff to a level nearer the standard supply rate.
Several studies have reported that two important AGI, cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis, have seasonal variability and may therefore be affected by climatechange [7–10]. Extreme precipitation events have been implicated in sev- eral waterborne AGI outbreaks [11–14] and in sporadic AGI . Extreme precipitation may increase pathogen transfer from environmental reservoirs (e.g. animal ma- nure) into surface water either directly, by increasing stream discharge, which increases turbidity and promotes the re-suspension of infectious cysts/oocysts from river sediments , or indirectly, by increasing overland runoff into water systems [17–19]. Such increases in water tur- bidity can reduce the efficacy of drinking water treatment [4, 20, 21]. Ascertaining the vulnerability of drinking water systems to extreme weather events in the present and the future is necessary for climatechange adaptation ap- proaches to protect public health.
information provided under key parameters of different projects and arrive at appropriate conclusions. This format will also facilitate for a comprehensive comparative analysis between the DSM Programmes implemented in India and worldwide. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), demand response is “a subset of the broader category of end-use customer energy solutions known as Demand-Side Management.” Even the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) finds that “the rapid evolution of demand response programs, rules and names increases confusion among respondents and staff alike. FERC lists 14 demand response programs — from direct load control (DLC) to real-time pricing and system peak response transmission tariff. While many of these methods have been tried over the years, utilities have often been stymied in their efforts to make them cost - effective and to employ them as dependable methods for controlling peak energy needs.