The outdoor climate is changing. In order to assure thermal comfort in new and existing residentialbuildings we need to revise and adapt our building designs. Therefore, 10 meteorological stations in Iran were selected to investigate and predict the influence of climatechange on the local climate diversity and variability. In order to provide a comfortable and healthy indoor environment, bioclimatic designrecommendations during early design stages were revised, in- cluding during the two periods of 1986–2015 and 2020–2050. A modified Givoni's bioclimatic chart was used to visualize the climate variation and to inform designers about accurate and climate-proof bioclimatic design re- commendations. The second-generation Canadian Earth System Model was used to predict changes in the maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity components of future decades. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 for the greenhouse gas emission section of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, the effects of climatechange on different cooling and heating strategies were examined. The findings of this study showed that for all the studied stations, apart from Abadan, the trend in temperature increase over the coming decades is not unforeseen. The use of heating strategies will decrease, and the use of cooling strategies will increase. Finally, this study presents an adjusted bioclimatic chart of Iran and quantifies the adaptation measures to climatechange to reduce energy use and avoid overheating.
The consequences of climatechange for the insurance sector is a growing field of research also in academia. 7 There is however a lack of academic case-studies on the effect of climatechange scenarios on insurance risk. This can partly be attributed to a lack of available insurance data mainly due to insurance companies being very protective of their data. Haug et al. 8 model the daily number of weather-related insurance losses in each of the 19 counties of Norway separately and use climate scenarios for 2071–2100 to project future insurance losses. They show a significant increase in the insurance risk. While the regional downscaled climate projections have since been improved upon, there are still considerable weaknesses in projecting the correct distribution of precipitation. In a new study, Orskaug et al. 9 evaluate regional downscaled climate models by comparing the projected precipitation distribution for 1961–2000 to the historical meteorological records. The results show among other things that higher levels of precipitation are underestimated. What is well-established, however, is that we are in fact facing climatechange and it is useful to consider different plausible scenarios of the future climate to investigate what the impacts might be. Given that the future regional downscaled climate projections are associated with such great uncertainty, it makes sense to do a simple study of the effect of plausible increases in precipitations compared to a present-climate reference year. Scheel et al. 10 propose a coherent spatial model for the daily number of weather-related insurance losses at the municipality level, fitted to the same historical insurance loss data for
during summer. Hacker et al., in 2008 published their findings on the relationship between thermal mass and overheating risk in buildings using the medium-high emission climatechange scenario. In 2010 Jenkins et al., and Patidar et al., in separate studies employed statistical methods to evaluate the effect of climatic change on the thermal performance of UK dwellings. Ali and Ahmed (2012) explored how different shading devices affect thermal performance of dwellings and Kamal (2012) in the same year evaluated the relationship between passive cooling techniques and thermal comfort. In 2013 Amoako-Attah and B-Jahromi using thermal analysis simulation investigated the impact of varying climatic patterns on five building performance indicators and indicated how improving building energy efficiency will challenge future innovative design and adapt the technological process. Anh-Tuan and Reiter (2014) used simulation approach to investigate the design, operation and thermal comfort of low-cost dwellings and Taleghani et al (2014) using thermal simulation investigated heat mitigation strategies using vegetation and ponds.
A number of areas of work are identified in this study, but there appear to be few significant problems offering the possibility of quick wins or easy gains. One of the few that has been identified, is to liaise with relevant BS and CEN committees to discuss how standards such as BS 6399-2: 1997: Code of Practice for Wind Loads on Buildings, and associated design tools such as BREVe (Cook 2001) can be updated to include data on potential future wind environments. However, the wide range of uncertainty in predictions of future wind speeds means that it is not yet possible to determine what changes to make to the code of practice. It must also be borne in mind that much of the impact of wind on the built environment is caused by buildings that do not comply with existing codes. There appears to be little point in refining codes of practice against a background of general non-compliance. A combined strategy of improved education and training in the construction industry, improved supervision during the construction process, changes to rules governing insurance claims 12 and an enhanced role for Building Control would be likely to be more effective. The
In this chapter, the uncertainty of crop yield projections is discussed as stemming from three different sources, following the framing of Ruiz-Ramos and Mínguez (2010): from climate models, crop models, and the linkages between them. It is argued here that this framing indicates that apart from crop yield projections being ‘inherently uncertain’ (e.g. Asseng et al., 2013), the field of climate-crop impact assessment is also inherently multi- and inter-disciplinary. Impact studies combine the climate sciences with crop agronomy and agricultural sciences, and they also utilize many statistical tools to reach the end-goal of yield projections. This means that research in impact studies requires a common understanding of key concepts and tools. To bring a common understanding to these important disciplinary concepts, in this review of literature, firstly, climate models are reviewed, in addition to a discussion of downscaling methods that are used to change global climate model simulations to a more regional scale. The method of bias correction, which is the use of statistical approaches to improve the output of climate models as a post-processing step, is also reviewed, in light of the ongoing discussion and criticism that it does not address underlying climate model error, nor that bias correction methods are appropriate for use in future climate projections.
However, these are long term issues. The overriding immediate concern for India should be the fast pace at which negotiations are taking place on the climate front. India‟s main energy resource is coal. With the threat of climatechange, India is called upon to change its energy strategy based on coal, its most abundant resource, and to use other energy sources (e.g. oil, gas, renewable and nuclear energy) instead, which may turn out to be expensive. Thus, an immediate issue is to come up with a better negotiation strategy such that we have more freedom to decide which type of energy we use, how we generate power, how to reduce methane emissions by agricultural practices or forestry and so on. Negotiations are important for us as a means to reduce or postpone future vulnerability by getting the developed countries to reduce their emissions.
According to the evaluations made in the 1980s, it is reported that all the forests in the earth have stored 830 Pg carbon (petagram = 1015 g = 1 gigaton = 1 billion tons) in total and that the amount stored in the soil is 1.5 times more than the storage in the vegetation (Brown, 1997). In this total budget, young temperate and boreal forests serve as a net repository, while tropical forests, which are constantly destroyed, emerge as a clear CO2 source (emissions). Globally, forests are a clear source of carbon, and the reasons for this include deforestation, particularly in tropical regions. However, proper management of forests will ensure that the clear CO2 emissions from the forests are stopped and serve as a clear repository. In this way, 11-15% of fossil fuel emissions can be stored in CO2 forests (Brown, 1997). Globally meaning forests with quantities of C stored in terrestrial ecosystems It is estimated that in 2005, 572 billion tons of stems (280 billion tons of Carbon equivalent) were carried; 33% in South America, 21% in Africa, 11% in Asia and 4% in Oceania. In 2005, it is estimated that the total forest carbon is 633 billion tons, which is equivalent to 160 tons of carbon per hectare. The total carbon in the forest biomass in Europe is 16% of the global total, while the carbon in the earth in Europe is more than 40% of the global total. Greenhouse gas emission rate (especially CO2) is calculated on the basis of biomass loss based on land use change and deforestation estimates. Globally, the rate of decline of forest carbon is estimated to be 1.6 billion tons per year, with 0.25% of total forest carbon. Tropical forests have an important influence both on input and output in global carbon budget. For example, forest
3.Impacts on water situation in India India stands to face major challenges in many fronts in so far as the impact of climatechange is concerned. Water security is one of the most important threats in this regard. Water resources will come under increasing pressure in the Indian subcontinent due to the changing climate. The Himalayan glaciers are a source of fresh water for perennial rivers, in particular the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra river systems. In recent decades, the Himalayan region seems to have undergone substantial changes as a result of extensive land use (e.g. deforestation, agricultural practices and urbanization), leading to frequent hydrological disasters, enhanced sedimentation and pollution of lakes.
suspected to occur in the future, based on an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon, or a decline in occupied habitat, range or habitat quality. For example, recently the IUCN SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group recommended listing this species as VU under Criterion A3 due to global warming (Wiig 2005). Although this is the most straightforward way to red-list species threatened by climatechange, there are two issues to consider. First, this criterion requires a projected reduction in abundance. Although this population reduction may be based on a projected decline in occupied habitat, range, or habitat quality, any assumed relationship between abundance and habitat/range must be justified, as discussed above. Second, for short-lived species, Criterion A has a limited time horizon (3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer). Because climatechange can affect species in long time horizons (50+ years), three generations will often be too soon for the impacts of climatechange to be apparent on these species, even if past greenhouse gas emissions have already determined (and have made inevitable) climatechange effects in longer time horizons. In most cases, however, uncertainties and lack of knowledge of environmental trends and demographic characteristics of species make it very unreliable to make predictions of extinction risk over periods longer than 3 generations. In cases where sufficient data exist, and assessors are confident that longer-term predictions are justifiable, Criterion E can be used (see below). In addition, recent studies demonstrate that climatechange can affect species viability much faster than implied by range shifts, when it interacts with other factors (Pounds et al. 2006). When such factors are incorporated into the assessment, a 3-generation time scale may be sufficient to project impacts on many short-lived species.
R auch (2007) assembled national data to analyse intensity of care provision for older people and showed that Sweden’s LTC provision is not the most generous among Nordic countries or other European states. Rauch’s indicator combines the proportion of population aged 65 years and over in residential LTC with a measure of the intensity of home help services (calculated from percentage covered and average hours of service). Rauch’s data and the OECD data in Table 6.9 are not directly comparable because of differences in the method of data collection – Rauch includes semi-residential care. In 2006, an annual average of 46,500 people were in receipt of home help services in Ireland, averaging 4.7 hours weekly, according to the HSE’s database of home help hours and recipients. This would comprise 9.9 per cent of the Irish population aged 65 years and over but, since the HSE does not record recipients’ ages, this is probably an over-statement of the coverage rate for over 65s. By Rauch’s measure, Denmark offers the most generous services to older people, followed by Norway, the Netherlands, France and then Sweden. Ireland, on this calculation, offers more generous coverage than Germany, at the bottom of this ranking, attributed by Rauch to its targeting only the most severely impaired, with consequent heavy demands on informal care-givers (Table 6.11). Germany has relatively low female labour force participation at 50 per cent, relatively generous acute care provision and is forecast to face heavily increased demand for formal care (Table 6.9, and Source note; Schulz, 2004).
Regional impact studies of the future climatechange effects are necessary because projected changes in meteorological variables differ from one region to another, and different climate systems can react in varied ways to the same changes. In this study, the effects of climatechange on bioclimatic deficiency were compared in two cultivation methods (irrigated and rainfed) in a semi-arid region, Ahar (East Azarbaijan, IRAN). The agricultural land uses selected for evaluation were wheat (Triticum aestivum), alfalfa (Medicago sativa), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris), potato (Solanum tuberosum), and maize (Zea mays). In this way, Terraza model included in the land evaluation decision support system, called MicroLEIS DSS, was used. Terraza gives a quantitative prediction of a site bioclimatic deficiency. Soil morphological and analytical data were obtained from 44 sampling points based on a grid survey. Agro-climatic data, referred to temperature and precipitation, were collected from weather stations located in Ahar region, which benefits from more than 20 consecutive years of weather data. A future scenario of climatechange was calculated according to the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) on regions of Asia under scenario A1FI (highest future emission) for 2080s. Although, increasing of precipitation being available by climatechange in the future scenario, humidity index will be reduced because of high temperature. The results showed that climatechange is likely to cause severe water stress in irrigated cultivation of alfalfa, sugar beet, potato, and maize, the use of irrigation methods being essential to maintain agricultural productivity. Although irrigation is indicated as very important in this regime of semi-arid agriculture, cultivation of rainfed wheat can be possible instead of the irrigated one. Also, it is revealed that climate perturbation effects on rainfed conditions are more serious than those on the irrigated conditions in the area.
Recently, the use of solar energy for both heating and cooling applications have received more attentions, especially in the Middle East and North Africa countries,Iran. It is because, the electricity demands for both heating and cooling by the domestic sector, during winter and summer, respectively, are quite high. The conventional electric heater and air conditioner used in the buildings/domestic sector consume a lot of electricity . Iran as a big oil producer in the world, most of its electricity demands are supplied by conventional power plants driven by fossil fuels. The problem is that oil will be ceased to dominate as the main energy source by the end of the 21st century. Also, with the growth of world’s population and civil modernization, the world energy demand will definitely escalate in the next 20 years . With the fossil fuel resources continue to decrease, the energy demand is rapidly increasing, and this will definitely leads to an energy crisis in the near future [3,4]. Furthermore, Ghaddar et al. (1997) carried out a research on the performance of a solarabsorption system in Beirut. They reported an analytical study on the solar energy utilization in the space cooling of a small residential application using solar lithium bromide absorption system. They made a simulation program for the modeling and performance evaluation of the solaroperated absorption cycle for all possible climatic conditions in Beirut. Their results revealed that for every ton of refrigeration, it is essential to have a minimum collector area of 23.3 m 2 with apeak water storage
The objective of this research is to investigate the effort taken by all selected design companies in Kuala Lumpur and Melaka to implement sustainable interior design in their residentialdesign project. Thus, the objectives of the research are stated as below:
Findings suggest that kapok fibre is effective as a roof insulation material in residentialbuildings in hot climate. In addition, thicker kapok fibre improves its effectiveness. The highest outdoor-indoor temperature difference was 5.09 °C for 10-cm kapok fibre insulated house model, which is 2.37°C higher than the uninsulated house model. For future research, it is recommended that higher thicknesses of kapok fibre are used for evaluation. Also, the evaluation can be conducted in actual houses with the presence of occupants, appliances and furniture.
The thermoregulatory influence of building materials to improve the thermal comfort of buildings has been examined primarily using climate modelling based on the work of Fanger (1972). This modelling has limitations because it does not accept that building occupants are active participants in controlling their thermal environment. This thesis addresses this knowledge gap by examining how thermal comfort in the temperate climate of Hobart, Tasmania, Australia is influenced by thermal mass in buildings. This research assessed: how the temperate climate of Hobart impacts the thermal environment of a building; how past research in passive design for energy efficiency has been adopted, and; what methods of modelling and studying thermal comfort are appropriate. The nine case studies examined a range of building and occupant types. An analysis was undertaken for each building including zoning and layout, building materials and insulation. Occupants were interviewed at the commencement of each case study which included examining acclimatisation to the local climate and thermal satisfaction with the dwelling. Seasonal temperature data were recorded in the central living space of buildings over a three month period. The research gathered dry bulb temperatures, surface temperatures, and humidity data in each building. Direct observations were made on the activities of the occupants within their thermal environment and they were surveyed regarding thermal comfort levels. Results indicate that thermal mass impacts thermal comfort levels of occupants. However, this impact can be negative or positive depending on other external factors such as the placement of thermal mass within the building, exposure of thermal mass to insolation and insulating materials around the thermal mass. In dwellings with poor thermal performance occupants can increase thermal comfort levels by more closely adapting to the thermal environment. Such techniques for adaptation include: the adjustment of clothing; the use of controls such as windows and blinds; relocation within the building; changes in posture and levels of physical activity; and acclimatisation to the local climate.
The energy consumption of urban buildings is affected by the surrounding microclimate which differs from standard weather data and by mutual obstructions between buildings, which decrease sunlight and wind potentials for internal solar gains and passive cooling. The building construction itself affects both outdoor and indoor microclimate. This research addresses these interdependences in respect with energy performance. An urban structures are investigated with a fixed value of H/W and solar orientation. The numerical method used is the building energy model (TRNSYS), for simulating building energetic and thermal responses to external and internal settings and the Sombrero software to evaluate the to evaluate the shading of surrounding buildings.
Hyde and Kammerer (2009) studied adolescent views about moving from one place to another and living in a congregate care setting. Congregate care refers to care provided in an institution, shelter, residential care facility, or a group home. Participants spoke about moves due to foster parents not knowing what to do and the difficulty of sudden changes. They also complained about staff and the establishment of rules, made without their input, which did not make sense to them. The young people interviewed noted discrepancies between what they were told would happen and what actually took place. This led them to believe that those who are caregivers are not honest with them, and thus cannot be trusted. The youth also made poor choices as adolescents. One of the risks of not listening to young people is that they have an increased likelihood of making poor choices and not caring about the consequences because they perceive that no one cares about them, hence their choices matter very little.
theoretical exercises until the relevant variables can be measured simultane- ously. While early field campaigns were conducted to accomplish that goal, the amount of useful data is in- sufficient to confidently model and un- derstand the processes determining the microphysical and optical proper- ties of contrails and contrail-cirrus in a wide range of atmospheric conditions. Cloud-to-regional scale measurements and modeling are necessary steps in building a dependable set of tools for determining contrail-cirrus impacts on climate. They form the basis for mod- eling the effects on a global scale. However, knowledge of the global dis- tribution of contrail-cirrus optical prop- erties and coverage still remains un- certain. To date, satellite-based esti- mates of contrail particle sizes, optical depths, altitudes, and coverage are confined to only a few regions, sea- sons, or years. The most studied area is Western Europe followed by the United States. A more comprehensive climatology of aircraft-induced cirrus properties and radiative effects is needed, at least, for those areas where air traffic is significant or will become significant in the near future, e.g., eastern and southern Asia. The climatology should include several years that differ in upper tropospheric humidity in order to determine the variability over the actual range of conditions that occur over time scales greater than a decade. A database of this type will serve as the basis for un- derstanding the direct impact of con- trails and contrail-cirrus and for guiding and validating global climate models that include this new class of ice clouds.
Yang et al. (2014) also studied the effectiveness of using a built-in central ventilation shaft (CVS) for ventilating office spaces in a public building. They used the CFD simulation procedure to predict the aeration flow behaviour within the spaces. They also measured the interior air velocity and temperatures of 16 different positions on three different floors inside the main building. The most significant part of their findings was that ventilation shafts are effective in interior ventilation. They also validated the simulation software, in addition to asserting that the simulation procedure was a useful analysis tool for designers to improve the natural ventilation of buildings at the design stage. In their case studies research, Meiss and Padilla- marcos (2017) submitted that such a shaft inhibits the free circulation of air, although they attributed the inhibition to the influence of a building‘s geometry. Hence, the ventilation shaft as an architectural element could be said to have some negative impacts on the quality of the air in a building depending on the building‘s design. In other words, as long as the geometry is designed appropriately in relation to the ventilation shaft, it would enhance interior air circulation by letting in clean air and removing foul air. Through their analysis, Padilla-marcos et al. (2017) submitted that, for a shaft to yield efficient results regarding interior natural ventilation, it has to be up to 12 metres high. Some proffered reasons for that are factors like the surrounding urban environment around the building and the building design, which interfere with the ability of the shaft exchange process. Their submission was supported because the shaft height is very low, the exhaust effect inside it is weak, and reduces rapidly (Zhong et al., 2011). Some researcher argued that height alone cannot be the efficiency determining factor for a ventilation shaft. Saleem et al. (2016) strongly implied that, to improve a shaft‘s performance, which they called solar chimney, other parameters needed to be taken into account, such as the width and inclination angle. They concluded that, for ventilation shaft researches to be more meaningful, the various parameters need to be studied cumulatively to define the optimal design.