The analysis of hydropower generation and revenues shows that storage hydropower plant operators try to produce as much as possible in high winter price hours (peak hours) using their inherent flexibility. This strategy is similar to that under current climate conditions. In contrast, generation by RoR plants is directly linked to water availability and their revenues are thus driven by electricity market prices. Changes in inflow seasonality resulting from climatechange seem to be favorable for Swisshydropower since less water has to be spilled. Climatechange effects considered in this paper seem to have a positive impact on Swisshydropower under average or wet conditions, but a strong negative impact under dry conditions. However, due to the focus on three selected hydrological years, we cannot identify whether one of these effects dominates the other. Furthermore, storage power plants revenues are more strongly affected by an exacerbation of dry conditions due to climatechange than revenue of RoR power plants. This effect might seem counter intuitive at first as storage power plants are much more flexible than RoR power plants, but the effect can be explained by the amount of unused capacity in winter peak price hours. This amount of unused capacity is almost zero for storage power plants under historical conditions. This means that they produce at full capacity in winter peak price hours. In contrast, RoR power plants have excess capacity in winter peak price hours, as they follow seasonal inflow patterns. Accordingly, RoR power plants can compensate for some of the overall losses in revenue due to decreased inflows by increased generation in winter peak price hours, using a more beneficial seasonality of inflows.
Nobody can say that it does not exist. A lot of small pieces put together in a puzzle show us now how dramatic it already is. And it does not only have an im- pact on civilians, it also has an impact on the military. However, this means that we maybe have to change our planning and training according to consequences of climatechange. Militaries are concerned about climatechange because it is their job to ad- dress all credible threats to their respective nation’s security. These threats come in forms both direct and indirect, including direct threats to military installations from sea level rise and extreme droughts, and indirect threats through the exacerbation of instability in critical regions.
Abstract: This paper reviews the climatechangeimpact on rainfall as well as extreme events occurrences. The global extreme weather contributes to the uncertainties of the climate trend and water scarcity problems to the whole world. Thus, numerical models such as General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the response of the global climate system to the expected increment of the greenhouse gases concentrations. However, the GCM cannot be directly applied to climatechangeimpact studies, hence downscaling is needed. A large number of downscaling methods are available but there is no universal method exists at present that performs best for all conditions, depending on the application and this remains a subject of investigation. Therefore, this paper compares the performances among statistical and dynamical downscaling models that have been applied by different researchers in various purposes. It can be concluded that the statistical downscaling has been widely used and able to provide reliable climate projected results especially for Malaysia’s climate variables. This review is very significant especially to the policy maker in deciding the reliable climatic methods for the long term planning and management of water resources. Besides, the reliable projected rainfall will be very beneficial in estimating water availability and water resource policy.
3.Impacts on water situation in India India stands to face major challenges in many fronts in so far as the impact of climatechange is concerned. Water security is one of the most important threats in this regard. Water resources will come under increasing pressure in the Indian subcontinent due to the changing climate. The Himalayan glaciers are a source of fresh water for perennial rivers, in particular the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra river systems. In recent decades, the Himalayan region seems to have undergone substantial changes as a result of extensive land use (e.g. deforestation, agricultural practices and urbanization), leading to frequent hydrological disasters, enhanced sedimentation and pollution of lakes.
Pricing is bases on accurate statistics (mortality and morbidity rates linked to disasters, frequency of events…), which are difficult to establish for largely unpredictable weather disasters. But large natural disasters, such as the South Asia tsunami, can help to improve understanding of how a tsunami propagates and to better assess the risk. Actuaries and organizations such as the World Health Organization, which is working on the impact of climatechange on health in the long term, must also develop new tools to evaluate the effects of the climatechange on human morbidity and mortality. Taking up the challenge of prevention
To evaluate the discharge in future we can use the predicted precipitation data. They are estimated using E-OBS which takes into account the climatechangeimpact. E-OBS is a gridded data set of daily precipitation and temperature values from all around the Europe and is based on data which have been gathered during the European project ECA&D – European Climate Assessment & Dataset project. It was carried out by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI, 2013). The E-OBS grid shows the spatial arrangement of precipitation and temperature data for the continental part of the Europe for each day since 1950. Today the data for the E-OBS grid are contributed by 7848 meteorological stations from 61 countries. The point data are interpolated over the whole area which ensures the proper data grid to be used in any analysis (Haylock et al. 2008).
The vulnerability of the Indian subcontinent to the impact of changing climate is of vital importance because the major impact of climatechange in this continent would be on the hydrology, affecting water resources and agricultural economy. However, very little work has been carried out in India on the impact of climatechange on hydrology. The major river systems of the Indian subcontinent, namely Brahmaputra, Ganga and Indus which originate in the Himalayas, are expected to be vulnerable to climatechange because of substantial contribution from snow and glaciers into these river systems. It is understood that the global warming and its impact on the hydro logical cycle and the nature of hydrological events would pose an additional threat to the Himalayan region. Basically, the climatechange direct emphasis on floods and droughts disasters. Additional effects of global climatechange that have important implications for water resources include increased evaporation rates, a higher proportion of precipitation received as rain, rather than snow, earlier and shorter runoff seasons, increased water temperatures, and decreased water quality in both inland and coastal areas. Increased evaporation rates are expected to reduce water supplies in many regions. The greatest deficits are expected to occur in the summer, leading to decreased soil moisture levels and more frequent and severe agricultural drought. More frequent and severe droughts arising from climatechange will have serious management implications for water resource users (Ministry of Earth Science, 2015).
Abstract—This study is aimed at using the physiographic inundation model to simulate inundation potential of 24-hour and 48-hour design rainfalls for baseline and climatechange scenarios for several return periods and then discuss the impact of climatechange on inundation potential. The Typhoon Haitang in 2005 and Typhoon Morakot in 2009 were used to verify the physiographic inundation model by comparing with field investigations. Furthermore, the inundated potential was simulated with the hydrologic conditions for the duration of 24-hour and 48-hour design rainfalls for baseline and climatechange scenarios for 25- year, 50- year, 100-year and 200-year return periods. The comparisons reveal that the inundated areas and volumes increase significantly under climatechange scenario. Hence, climatechange results in more serious flood damages.
The main premise to modeling the impact of climatechange is the assumption that a “1 00 years event” turns into a “ much lower year event ” ; in this case, the probability of exceeding the record level in a given year will increase from 1% to 25%, from 1 event every 100 years to 25 events every 100 years. Therefore, we have to create a new annual energy generation path that computes a 4 years return level (R 4 ) equal to -77.8.
allows computing car travel time between destinations. We expect remoteness and skier visits to be negatively correlated. The variable ln km is the natural logarithm of the total length of ski runs (in kilometers). It controls for scale effects meaning that the sign of its associated coefficient should be positive. Based on data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, we use several variables to describe the supply characteristics of hotel accommodation: the average number of available beds during the winter season per km of slopes (ln Bedkm), the average number of beds per establishment (ln BedEst), and the percentage of beds in 4–5 stars hotels (HLux). The first two of these variables are transformed with the natural logarithm. Taken altogether, their aim is to control for the hotel accommodation’s size and structure at a given ski area. Common sense suggests that skier visits should be positively correlated with the number of hotel beds which would translate into a positive regression coefficient on the variable ln Bedkm. We make no guess as to the sign of the coefficients on the other two variables. Our measure of artificial snow production capacity (ART) represents the percentage of the ski slopes’ length that can be snowed using the available snowmaking facilities. This information was gathered from different sources including the direct questioning of ski operators. Eventually, information on transport infrastructures at ski areas was either obtained from the Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development or, for more recent information, from the Swiss Ski Operators Association. The transport capacity related variable is computed in three steps. The first step amounts to multiply a ski lift, chair lift or cable car’s transport capacity (persons/hour) with its difference in height (given in km). We then sum this value over all facilities located at a given ski area and divide that sum by the total length of ski runs. We end up taking the natural logarithm to obtain the variable ln PIkm. We expect the regression coefficient to be positive for this variable.
Although the road to reduction of GHG emissions and combating climatechange with regards to management of the waste biomass resources is through a number of mitigation measures or projects, still some barriers hin- der the progress of these proposals. On the top of the list of barriers is the weak enforcement of the existing laws and regulations concerned with waste management . Other barriers that face the utilization of waste include Technical barriers due to lack of local expertise, ma-
According to the evaluations made in the 1980s, it is reported that all the forests in the earth have stored 830 Pg carbon (petagram = 1015 g = 1 gigaton = 1 billion tons) in total and that the amount stored in the soil is 1.5 times more than the storage in the vegetation (Brown, 1997). In this total budget, young temperate and boreal forests serve as a net repository, while tropical forests, which are constantly destroyed, emerge as a clear CO2 source (emissions). Globally, forests are a clear source of carbon, and the reasons for this include deforestation, particularly in tropical regions. However, proper management of forests will ensure that the clear CO2 emissions from the forests are stopped and serve as a clear repository. In this way, 11-15% of fossil fuel emissions can be stored in CO2 forests (Brown, 1997). Globally meaning forests with quantities of C stored in terrestrial ecosystems It is estimated that in 2005, 572 billion tons of stems (280 billion tons of Carbon equivalent) were carried; 33% in South America, 21% in Africa, 11% in Asia and 4% in Oceania. In 2005, it is estimated that the total forest carbon is 633 billion tons, which is equivalent to 160 tons of carbon per hectare. The total carbon in the forest biomass in Europe is 16% of the global total, while the carbon in the earth in Europe is more than 40% of the global total. Greenhouse gas emission rate (especially CO2) is calculated on the basis of biomass loss based on land use change and deforestation estimates. Globally, the rate of decline of forest carbon is estimated to be 1.6 billion tons per year, with 0.25% of total forest carbon. Tropical forests have an important influence both on input and output in global carbon budget. For example, forest
Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climatechange and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global par- tial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil’s specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Grid- ded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climatechange forcing is in-
Cervigni et al. (2015) present a comprehensive analysis of the future of water- related infrastructure (including both hydropower and irrigation in agriculture) under IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange)’s RCP warming sce- narios. The authors focus on the question of how to design and build the es- sential infrastructure needed for Africa’s development, while factoring in and addressing the challenge of climate resilience. The study covers seven major river basins (Congo, Niger, Nile, Orange, Senegal, Volta, and Zambezi) and all four of SSA’s electric power pools (Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western). It is argued that failure to integrate climatechange in power and water in- frastructure could entail, in dry scenarios, losses of hydropower revenues in the 10-60% range with respect to a no-climate-change scenario (in part because the transmission lines and power trading agreements needed to bring the extra hy- dropower to the market could not be available). Threefold increases in consumer expenditure for backstop energy (e.g. diesel generation) are projected under the driest scenarios, with significant impact on infrastructure investment and future power mix configurations. Climatechange is projected to have the largest im- pact on electricity consumer prices in the Southern African Power Pool, where transmission lines are limited and the percentage of hydropower in the total installed capacity is high. For instance, hydropower generation could decline by more than 60% in the Zambezi basin. On the other hand, an unexploited wetter climate (in terms of underdeveloped capacity) could imply forgone revenues of 20-140% vis-` a-vis the baseline.
Climatechange poses significant challenges to hydropower development and management in mountainous basins. This study examined the impact of climatechange, and the associ- ated risks, on the energy production of the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project, which is located in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal. The outputs of three GCMs—namely MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, and MPI-ESM-M—under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used for the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the basin are projected to increase by 6.33 °C and 3.82 °C, respectively, by 2100. The projected precipitation varies from 8% to +24.8%, which is expected to alter the streamflow by 37.83% to +47% in the future. Based on the streamflow output, the risk for energy production was calculated with respect to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h and 2281 GW h. Using the three GCMs, the risk associated with annual hydropower production under altered runoff was analyzed. The risk percentage in the future periods shows a mild risk varying from 0.69% to 6.63%. MPI-ESM-M GCM projects a higher percentage of risk for energy production during the same future periods, as compared to the baseline energy production of 1963 GW h. A mild to moderate risk, ranging from 2.73% to 13.24% can be expected when energy production in the future is compared to the baseline energy production of 2281 GW h.
The impact of climatic changes on permafrost stability (Kääb 2008 ) or glacier wasting (Chiarle et al. 2007 ) and the associated occurrence of debris flows have been addressed in a series of studies, mostly focusing on the European Alps. Keiler et al. ( 2010 ), for instance, assumed that climatic changes and related glacier and permafrost melting could lead to widespread surface destabilization and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of geomor- phic hazards. Sattler et al. ( 2010 ) compared zones of marginal permafrost with recent (post- 1983) initiation zones of debris flows, and conclude that no links exist between atmospheric warming, permafrost degradation and debris flows occurrence in South Tyrol. In the Italian Dolomites, Floris et al. ( 2010 ) observed an increase in high-intensity, short-duration rainfalls since 1990 and suggested that such local changes could lead to more rainfall events which can potentially trigger debris flows. Similar results were reported for non-permafrost sites in the French Alps, where Jomelli et al. ( 2007 ; 2009 ) predict a decrease in debris-flow frequency.
Although adaptation to climatechange is often considered local, it also has international dimensions. For example Finland is not only affected by the changes that happen directly in Finland – as an open economy, Finland can experience changes for example in global prices of commodities (e.g. energy, food) that happen elsewhere because of climatechange. The indirect impacts of climatechange to the Finnish economy and society were studied in the FICC-project by CMCC in 2015 (Bosello, Orecchia & Standardi 2015). The study was carried out using a global general equilibrium (CGE) model which took into account results from global climatechangeimpact studies on crops’ productivity, tourism flows, sea-level rise, residential energy demand, river floods, health and fisheries. The results of the study suggest that “the intersectoral and international trade effects are likely to be very important, potentially, more than the direct effects triggered by climatechange itself.” (Bosello et. al. 2015, 27)
Table 11 shows the predicted impacts of climate changes on electricity generation. The amount of energy is calculated on a monthly basis in each scenario, and annual energy is the summation of monthly values. Due to increased river discharges during the early and late rainy season, the Vishnugad Pipalkoti power station would be able to generate more energy in 2025. However, this increment may be relatively modest at about 7.5 percent. The impact of decreased water in the lean flow season would be marginal, because the baseline scenario has already taken into account the fact that the Alaknanda River even now has the very low level of water flow during the lean season. Because of lack of sufficient storage capacity, the Vishnugad Pipalkoti power station will not fully take advantage of water resources available in the high-water season.
Abstract: Water is the most essential element for hydropower energy production. However, it has been well established that climatechange will negatively globally impact water resources and in Sub-Saharan Africa particularly. It is therefore important to take this into account when assessing the potential hydropower energy of rivers to avoid overestimating their production’s capacity. This article firstly deals with the impacts of climatechange on the forecast of potential hydropower energy of the Ouémé River Basin by 2040 and secondly develops the best equations for its exploitation. The data collected on three representative sites of the Ouémé River Basin (Bétérou, Savè, Kétou) from 1989 to 2016 and those derived from simulation of its flows from 2017 to 2040 by the Rural Engineering model (GR2M), made it possible to determine, first the monthly mean flow and, with the classified flow rate method, then evaluate the associated operating times. Using the obtained two parameters (mean flow-rate, production’s time), the hydropower energy was estimated as well, for period of 1989 to 2016, as for that of 2017 to 2040, and this in each of the retained three sites. The results show that the exploitable nominal flow-rates by hydro- electrical equipment set that can be installed are respectively 50 m 3 /s at Bétérou, 90 m 3 /s at Savè and 145 m 3 /s at Kétou. These results showed Kétou as the best site capable of hosting the largest hydropower energy plant on the Ouémé river basin. In Bétérou and Savè, the two-machines option (respectively 25 m 3 /s and 45 m 3 /s) is the most profitable, in terms of potential hydropower energy and its production duration, whereas in Kétou, the three-machines option of 50 m 3 /s each is the best.