Top PDF Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

Water allocation under future climate change and socio-economic development : the case of Pearl River Basin

The integrated approach developed in this thesis has been validated in the Pearl River Basin. It performed well for water allocation and management in the Pearl River Basin under future climate change and socio-economic changes. There are potentials for applying this integrated approach to other large river basins, which are also suffering from water shortage, for example, the Yellow River in northern China. Compared to the Pearl River Basin, water shortage in the Yellow River basin is even worse. During 1972-2000, there were 22 years that the Yellow River failed to reach the sea for a period of different length each year (Magee, 2011). By implementing a water allocation policy named the water–sediment regulation since 2002, drying up of the Yellow River was alleviated (Kong et al., 2015). However, the basin is still facing severe water shortage in recent years (Zhuo et al., 2016). Unlike in the Pearl River Basin, future climate change is likely to yield a positive effect in the Yellow River basin as discharge is projected to have a consistent increase in early Spring (Immerzeel et al., 2010). Retained in reservoirs, the additional water could enhance water availability for irrigated agriculture and food security. There is no previous study exploring water allocation in the Yellow River basin under consideration of both socio-economic and climate change scenarios and their impact. Therefore, applying this approach in the Yellow River basin is recommended for future studies. In addition, it is also interesting to modify this approach to identify and assess robust water allocation plans for large water transfer projects, such as the South-to-North water transfer project in China. Results show that the increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage in the Pearl River Basin. Integration of supply and demand management is thus highlighted in this thesis. However, water allocation at the basin scale means that we have to look not only at water supply and demand for cross-sectoral and upstream-downstream water users, but also institutional issue involved with the provision of water services (Rijsberman and Molden, 2001). A more extensive analysis about institutional issues, including better insights into the impacts of planning, policies, regulations, and allocation procedures on water supply and use would be needed for future modeling. To develop a new framework involving institutional interventions would constitute an important breakthrough in decision making under future uncertainties.
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Can integrative catchment management mitigate future water quality issues caused by climate change and socio economic development?

Can integrative catchment management mitigate future water quality issues caused by climate change and socio economic development?

sess the influence of many of these factors. While large-scale processes, such as climate change or socio-economic devel- opment, propel global change, understanding the effects of global change on water resources requires focusing on the regional or even local context. Improving water quality at the outlet of a catchment requires a reduction of relevant point or non-point sources of pollution within the catchment, which depend on land use and infrastructure. Therefore, the effec- tiveness of a particular management strategy may strongly differ between catchments. Some water quality management strategies require long-term investments, e.g. improving the wastewater infrastructure. Hence, scenario analyses about possible future developments and their influence on the ef- fectiveness of water quality management strategies are cru- cial for decision-making in this field. Just like any interven- tion into a complex system, water quality management can also have undesired side effects. A blind application of man- agement recipes can actually have a partly undesired out- come. For example, the reduction of suspended solid loads increases water transparency, which, given enough residence time in large rivers such as the Danube, can lead to advanced eutrophication (ICPDR, 1999). This could have been fore- casted by an integrated modelling approach, but side effects can also come from outside the simulation domain of catch- ment models; the revitalization of a section of the Aare River in Switzerland has improved recreational attraction, which caused an unexpected increase in disturbance and waste load (Witschi and Käufeler, 2014).
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Climate change, water management and stakeholder analysis in the Dongjiang River basin in South China

Climate change, water management and stakeholder analysis in the Dongjiang River basin in South China

In recent years, water management in the DjR basin has been facing some significant challenges, such as rapid population growth, urbanization, industrial development, reduc- tion of agricultural land use, ecological degradation, and annual fluctuation of river flow due to natural and human-induced factors, including climate change. As the discrepancies between increasing water demands and shrinking water supply, as well as seasonal and pollution-induced water shortages, are increasingly acute, DjR basin water allocation is becoming the most important issue. In particular, during the three consecutive dry years of 2002–2004, the recorded annual precipitation was about 30% less than normal, while other issues, such as salt tide intrusion and water pollution, also have frequently occurred in the Pearl River Delta. Thus, the contradiction between water supply and demand has become increasingly prominent (Liu, Yang, Lu, Deng, & Immanuel, 2012).
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Optimization of Surface Water Allocation in the Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin

Optimization of Surface Water Allocation in the Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin

The river flow is also necessary to maintain and safeguard proper functioning of the river including several subsistence uses such as subsistence irrigation, hydropower developments, navigation, using of riparian people and livestock etc. Allocating water efficiently to all water uses is a critical issue. To assess the water allocation on the local or sub-basin scale, a case area can be used. Moreover, water allocation is often focused on maximization of benefit or minimization of shortage of water. A number of studies carried out on hydro- economic modeling for water allocation considering different allocation criteria such as improvement of basin water use efficiency and alternative water pricing etc. In several modeling studies the instream water use benefits are mainly considered as hydropower generation and lake and reservoir recreation. However, it is apparent in many developing countries that the poor’s livelihood carries significantly more economic value than recreation. Dams also result in adverse impacts to the flow regime of a river with grave implications to the health of floodplains and the ecosystem services they provide to local livelihoods. Major threats to the ecological and hydrological integrity of the Ayeyarwady River Basin include: hydropower developments; logging and deforestation; mineral prospecting; unsustainable fishing practices and overfishing; land use change; habitat destruction; and climate change. The navigation route needs to be maintained, particularly from Hyacinth growth and keeping depth required for navigation in order to intensify transport of passengers and goods. Inland water transportation, which is expected to be low cost and a means of mass-transit transportation, is impeded by large difference of water level between rainy and dry season in Myanmar. Inland water transportation in dry season is sometimes very difficult as a lot of shallow places (only 1m draft) appeared in Ayeyarwady River. Shallow water depth of navigable waterways due to water shortage during the hot season in some parts of Inland Water Transport at Mandalay Station is shown in Figure 2.
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Estimation of groundwater recharge in the context of future climate change in the White Volta River Basin, West Africa

Estimation of groundwater recharge in the context of future climate change in the White Volta River Basin, West Africa

The importance of water, particularly freshwater, has been recognized since the beginning of man. In every human society anywhere on the planet earth, water is said to be life because all aspects of life depend on it. Freshwater constitutes less than 3 % of the world’s water resources but it is one of the world’s most important natural resources and an indispensable part of all terrestrial ecosystems. It is a necessary input for many sectors of the global economy. In many world regions, particularly in developing regions like Africa, availability and access to freshwater largely determines patterns of economic growth and social development (Odada, 2006). Freshwater resources are pivotal to key economic and social activities such as water supply and sanitation, agriculture, industry, urban development, hydropower generation, inland fisheries, transportation and recreation among others. These activities provide employment and generate revenue that sustains many economies of the world. Besides its economic value, freshwater plays an important role in addressing issues of health, poverty and hunger and has been rightly recognized in the formulation of the United Nations’ millennium development goals.
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Water scarcity under various socio economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

Water scarcity under various socio economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

Many studies have investigated the changes in water sup- ply under various climate change but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development (Tang and Oki, 2016). It becomes important to develop qualitative scenario storylines to assess future wa- ter scarcity in a changing environment at the regional scale. These storylines would facilitate assessment of the water use competitions among different sectors and regions and thus aid development of adaptation strategy for the river basin. A few studies have tried to describe the main characteristics of future climate change scenarios and development pathways at the global scale (Elliott et al., 2014; Schewe et al., 2014). These efforts, though important, are too coarse for vulner- ability assessment at the regional scale in the following as- pects. First, the global studies do not consider the water flow regulation rule implemented by the local river administra- tion, which sets limits on water withdrawals for each sub- basin. Second, the global studies usually set a strict criterion on discharge reduction for human water use such as 40 % (Schewe et al., 2014) while human water use in the YR basin has already exceeded the criterion (YRCC, 2013). Third, the global studies often exhibit considerable biases in water sup- ply assessment as most global models are not validated using streamflow observations. Fourth, the YR river supplies water for irrigation districts not only inside the river basin but also
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Inter Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project  Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Inter Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

col will supply a larger group of people. However, PA and FU protocols will put a slighter pressure on the stakeholders who live in the main basin. As a conclusion, there is a tradeoff between the benefit and difficulties of each protocol, but if the economic costs of the project are considered, FD protocol will illustrate its efficiency be- sides more supplied people. FD protocol will achieve more than 93% of the project’s aim in duration from 2010 to 2050 whereas Table 5 shows 80.84% and 74.63% for PA and FU. Current results are rational because FD protocol focuses on maximum possible water transmis- sion in this case; while FU protocol looks for minimum water transmission and PA has a moderate behavior. This research contains the result of the first layer of climate change impacts and a governmental project with consi- dering its special limits. It’s recommended to Future re- searches to focus on the second layer of socio-economic affairs and consider real cost of project as an effective item. In addition, some social issues like immigration to constructed areas and effects of new reservoirs, rate of job cutting, governmental subsides on agriculture and hy- dropower and other factors should be considered. These factors are important to develop an unbiased model which can help water resources managers to have a clear image of the future, and have a multi-criteria knowledge about the real cost and benefits of each protocol.
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Hydrological response to climate change: The Pearl River, China under different RCP scenarios

Hydrological response to climate change: The Pearl River, China under different RCP scenarios

The Pearl River in southern China is the second largest river in China in terms of streamflow. Since the late 1970s, the Pearl River basin plays an important role in Chinese economic development. The delta in particular has become one of the leading economic regions and a major manufacturing center of China. In about 0.4% of China’s land territory, the delta produces about 20% of the national GDP, and attracts 40% of foreign investment ( Chen et al., 2010 ). The Pearl River is influenced by a subtropical monsoon climate. About 80% of the streamflow occurs during the monsoon season from April to September, with peak flows during May and July ( PRWRC, 2010 ). Due to highly uneven spatial and temporal distribution of flows, there are frequent floods and droughts in the basin. The extreme events have caused large life and property losses ( Zhang et al., 2009, 2012 ). In addition, the increasing water demand in combination with low water availability in the dry season is causing increased seasonal water shortages ( Zhu et al., 2002 ). Reduced flows in the dry season, in combination with seas level rise have resulted in increasing salt water intrusion in the delta. This increased salinity poses a potential threat to water supply and freshwater ecosystems. Seasonal variation in river discharge is a key factor determining salt intrusion in the delta ( Gong et al., 2013 ). Salt water intrusion could further increase in the future if low flows continue to reduce. Therefore it is important to assess the impact of future climate change on river discharge.
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Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

According to IPCC (2007), between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change in Africa by 2020. The increasing wa- ter demand of upstream countries in the Nile Basin coupled with climate change impacts can affect the availability of water resources for downstream countries and in the basin, which could result in resource conflicts and regional inse- curities. Moreover, climate variability (i.e., the way climate fluctuates yearly and seasonally above or below a long-term average value, caused by changes in forcing factors such as variation in seasonal extent of the intertropical convergence zone like El Niño and La Niña events) is already imposing a significant challenge to Ethiopia by affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction, and sustainable socioeconomic development efforts. To mitigate these chal- lenges, the Ethiopian government therefore carried out a se- ries of studies on Upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNRB), which has been identified as an economic “growth corridor”, focused on identifying irrigation and hydropower potential of the basin (BCEOM, 1998; USBR, 1964; WAPCOS, 1990). As a result, large-scale irrigation and hydropower projects in- cluding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa, have been identi- fied and are being constructed as mitigation measures for the impacts of climate change. However, most studies have put less emphasis on climate change and its impact on the hy- drology of the basin, and hence identifying local impacts of climate change at basin level is quite important. This is espe- cially important in the UBNRB for the sustainability of large- scale water resource development projects, for proper water resource management leading to regional security and for finding possible mitigation measures to avoid catastrophic consequences.
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Hydrological Implications of Climate Change on River Basin Water Cycle: Case Studies of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Basins, China

Hydrological Implications of Climate Change on River Basin Water Cycle: Case Studies of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Basins, China

Abstract: Climate change is a global issue that draws widespread attention from the international society. As an important component of the climate system, the water cycle is directly affected by climate change. Thus, it is very important to study the influences of climate change on the basin water cycle with respect to maintenance of healthy rivers, sustainable use of water resources, and sustainable socioeconomic development in the basin. In this study, by assessing the suitability of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Automated Statistical Downscaling model (ASD) were used to generate future climate change scenarios. These were then used to drive distributed hydrologic models (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for hydrological simulation of the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins, thereby quantifying the effects of climate change on the basin water cycle. The results showed that suitability assessment adopted in this study could effectively reduce the uncertainty of GCMs, and that statistical downscaling was able to greatly improve precipitation and temperature outputs in global climate mode. Compared to a baseline period (1961–1990), projected future periods (2046–2065 and 2081– 2100) had a slightly decreasing tendency of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In particular, a significant increase in runoff was observed during flood seasons in the southeast part. However, runoff of the upper Yellow River basin decreased continuously. The results provide a reference for studying climate change in major river basins of China.
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Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

Climate change through the temperature, precipitation, evap- oration and other factors to change the impact of hydro- logical circulation system, leading to different spatial and temporal scale of water redistribution (Stocker, 2013).With the global climate changes, both the precipitation and runoff in Yellow River Basin (YRB) present obviously decreasing, while the water shortage of the Yellow River basin will likely be intensifying with the economic development (Wang et al., 2011; Hao et al., 2011; Duan et al., 2014). Meanwhile, YRB is well known not only for its history and large drainage area but also for its frequent floods and serious droughts. So, it is important to analysis climate change and its impact on the hydrological process in YRB.
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Hydrological Modeling to Evaluate Future Climate Change Impacts in Sind River Basin, India

Hydrological Modeling to Evaluate Future Climate Change Impacts in Sind River Basin, India

Rahman et al., (2012) [4] applied SWAT in Southern Ontario basin with Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) generated daily future data under SRES A2 scenario. Model results indicated that the average annual stream flow may increase by 12% when compared to baseline period. Gosain et al., (2006) [5] simulated the impacts climate change scenarios on stream flows of 12 major river basins in India, ranging in size from 1,668 to 87,180 km 2 for the period 2041-2060. Surface runoff was found to be decreased and the severity of both floods and droughts were increased due to impact of future climate change projections. In another study SWAT applied at continental level in African by Faramarzi et al. 2013 [6]. Future climate projections applied were generated from four IPCC emissions scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, and B2) under five GCMs (HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and ECHAM4). The results indicated that in Africa, decrease in blue and green water resources. These variations has a considerable impact on the economic development and agricultural, which lead to vulnerability and food security. Meng et al. (2008) [7] for the upper reaches of Yangtze River, China using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and applied five GCMs generated future climate change scenarios derived from Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Study outcomes indicated, a little decrease in stream flow in January to June and in contrary there is a drastic increase in stream flow during the months of August to October.
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The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

Abstract. Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to cli- mate change, thereby affecting crop production. Informa- tion about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the infor- mation providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This pa- per analyses the economic value of information on drought events taking into account the risk aversion of water man- agers. We consider the effects of drought management plans on rice production in the Ebro river basin. This enables us to compute the willingness to compensate the river basin authority for more accurate information allowing for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, river basin planners can consider the reduction of water allocation for irrigation in order to eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately, river basin planners may decide to maintain water allocation and accept a reduction of water supply reliability, leaving farmers exposed to drought events. These two alternatives offer dif- ferent risk levels for crop production and farmers’ incomes which determine the value of this information to the river basin authority. The information is relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) within the context of climate change.
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Study of Water Allocation for Existing and Future Demands under Changing Climate Condition: Case of Upper Awash Sub River Basin

Study of Water Allocation for Existing and Future Demands under Changing Climate Condition: Case of Upper Awash Sub River Basin

The main aim of this study is to study the existing and future water availability under climate change in upper awash sub-basin which contributes significant flow to Koka dam and also on water allocation of the existing and planned water resource projects (irrigation, hydropower, industries, livestock etc.) in the upper awash. HEC- HMS hydrologic model is used to assess the water availability of sub-basin. The future stream flow forecasted in the sub-basin were simulated by the dynamically downscaled A1B scenarios known as RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) has been adopted from CORDEX archive and bias correction were done by using power transformation equation before using in HEC-HMS model. The result of future water availability from 2006 to 2031 in sub-basin was found to be nearly 1001 MMC. The Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model is used for optimal water allocation for existing and proposed water resource projects using the monthly based data in both the demand side and supply sides and by priority setting situation for demand sites. The reference period used for the simulation ranges from 1981-2009 while the future scenario period ranges from 2006-2031.The monthly water requirement for each crop mainly sugarcane is estimated using Cropwat 8.0 software by adopting Penman Monteith approach and crop coefficient of the crop. The existing irrigation projects were around 95,155 ha while in the future scenario period the irrigable land expected to increase by 21,103 ha. According to reference scenario the downstream irrigation project shows the highest supplied volume about 479.4 MCM annually. According to future scenario period the UV1 and UV3 irrigation projects shows increasing water demand from the refinance period by about 203.5 and 357.5 MCM annually due to expansion of the irrigation projects. The annual water demand and supplied for the reference period found to be 1716.3 MCM while the demand increases to 1953.3 MCM for the future scenario with no unmet demand.
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Climate change vs  socio economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap

Climate change vs socio economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap

mainly be explained by the fact that in our study the domes- tic and industrial sectors are also able to abstract groundwa- ter, which consequently results in larger depletion rates. In the Brahmaputra river basin, no blue water gap is simulated, because all demands can be sustained by surface water and renewable groundwater. In the Indus river basin, the seasonal demand, supply, and gap are largest during the monsoon and melting season, which coincides with the prevailing grow- ing season, the kharif. In the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins, the seasonal demand, supply, and gap (i.e. only in the Ganges river basin) are largest during the winter, which coin- cides with the rabi season. Assuming climate change without socio-economic development, demand and supply are pro- jected to decrease in all basins on an annual basis, and in general during the winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon sea- sons for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. During the monsoon (i.e. only in the Brahmaputra river basin) and post-monsoon seasons, demand and supply are projected to increase. The water gap is projected to decrease under all circumstances, with mean annual relative decreases of up to 37 % and 55 % (Table 2) in the Indus and Ganges river basins, respectively, for RCP8.5, at the end of the 21st century. On a seasonal basis, the largest mean relative decreases are projected during the winter sea- son, with relative decreases of up to 52 % and 66 % (Ta- ble 2) in the Indus and Ganges river basins, respectively, for RCP8.5, at the end of the 21st century. The decreasing de- mand (met and unmet) and supply can mainly be explained by shorter growing seasons that emerge from temperature in- creases, and increasing precipitation that result in a shift from blue water irrigation to green water or rainfed irrigation. The increases in monsoon and post-monsoon (i.e. first half of the kharif (monsoon) and rabi (post-monsoon) seasons) seasons can likely be explained by enhanced atmospheric evapora- tive
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Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China

Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China

Abstract Water resources are an integral part of the socio-economic-environmental system. Water resources have dynamic interactions with related social, economic and environmental elements, as well as regulatory factors that are characterized by non-linear and multi-loop feedbacks. In this paper, a complex System Dynamic (SD) model is used to study the relationship among population growth, economic development, climate change, manage- ment strategies and water resources, and identify the best management strategy to adapt with the changing environment in the Tuwei river basin of Northwest China. Three management alternatives viz. business as usual, water supply management and water demand manage- ment are studied under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that water shortage rate in Tuwei river basin may increase up to 80 % by the year 2030 if current management practices are continued or the supply based management strategy is adopted. On the other hand, water demand management can keep the water shortage rate within a tolerable limit and therefore can be considered as the sustainable strategy for water resources management to maintain the economic growth and ecological status of the Tuwei river basin.
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Analysis of rainfall extremes and water yield of Krishna river basin under future climate scenarios

Analysis of rainfall extremes and water yield of Krishna river basin under future climate scenarios

The Krishna river basin, India was selected as study area due to its semi-arid nature, and vulnerability to climate change, owing to the erratic distribution of rainfall along with warmer climatic conditions. Few studies have been conducted to analyse the climate change impact on water resources of the Krishna river basin. However, these studies use the greenhouse gas (GHG) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, which carry an enormous uncertainty in the assumption of factors such as economic development, population growth, and developed technology ( Soro et al., 2017 ). For instance, using the GHG scenario, Gosain et al. (2006) concluded the Krishna basin to experience regular or seasonal water-stressed conditions in future, due to a decrease of precipitation and water yield. Kulkarni et al. (2014) projected an increasing trend in annual precipitation, surface runoff, water yield and actual evapotranspiration in future (2041-70), displaying no significant changes in these parameters in the early century (2011- 40) using the SRES scenario. In both these studies, a single GCM data was used without any bias correction, while performing calibration at the only one-gauge station. Mishra and Lilhare (2016) projected an increasing trend of water balance components along with rainfall and air temperature in Krishna river basin under future climate scenarions (CMIP5 models with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios).
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Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate induced socio hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate induced socio hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil

Infrastructure is planned, designed, and built considering future conditions of supply, demand, and variability. Sup- ply under water-scarce conditions is determined by hydro- climatic and basin processes, especially surface water and groundwater flows, as well as water quality. It is increas- ingly recognized that forecasting future demand is strongly influenced not just by demographic trends but also by wa- ter allocation among different uses (e.g., cities, agriculture, and ecosystems), management practices (e.g., water use effi- ciency), pricing and supply/rationing regimes, and end-user awareness. In this paper, we address the concept of infras- tructure sufficiency as the ability of water supply systems to reliably meet future demands given the uncertainty inherent in future supply-and-demand conditions. It is essential to as- sess supply–demand imbalances, particularly if they are pro- jected to get progressively worse or if supply targets are not met for prolonged periods of time, causing economic, social, and environmental damage. The most appropriate method to estimate impacts is the use of scenarios run through global circulation models (GCMs). The GCM outputs are used as inputs to hydrological models, which calculate the stream- flow in the basin. The combined use of mathematical mod- els makes possible the estimate of the possible impact of streamflow reduction in water allocation, as can be seen in Condappa et al. (2009) and Vaze et al. (2011). Integration of the GCMs/hydrological models has been accomplished using different types of models such as VIC (Variable In- filtration Capacity) (Liu et al., 2010), Large Basin Hydro- logical Model (MGB-IPH) (Nóbrega et al., 2011), and Di- CaSM (Distributed Catchment Scale Model) (Montenegro and Ragab, 2012), among others. A similar strategy involves the use of regional climate models (RCMs) nested within GCMs to improve the spatial resolution and to permit hy- drological simulation in smaller basins (Akhtar et al., 2009; Driessen et al., 2010). The vulnerability of infrastructure sys- tems – understood here as the inverse of sufficiency, i.e., the inability to meet demand targets – can also be evalu- ated using coupled or sequentially run models – e.g., GCMs, rainfall–runoff models, and simulation models (Cha et al., 2012; Matonse et al., 2013; Hall and Murphy, 2010) – and using different indices (resilience, reliability, vulnerability) for estimating the robustness of the systems (Matonse et al., 2013), water use to resource ratio (Hall and Murphy, 2010), and percentage of the demand not met.
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Impact of climate change on evaluation of future water demand in the Euphrates and Aleppo basin, Syria

Impact of climate change on evaluation of future water demand in the Euphrates and Aleppo basin, Syria

The Euphrates is the biggest river flowing in Syria, with a total length of 680 km. It originates in Turkey, flows through Syria, and joins the Tigris in Iraq to form the Shatt al Arab, which discharges into the Persian Gulf. Three dams have been constructed on the Euphrates in Syria (Tabqa, Baath and Tishreen). The mean annual rainfall decreases from 300 mm in the northern regions along the border, to 150 mm in the middle reach of Euphrates valley and 100 mm at Abou Kamal. Water use in the EAB Basin focuses on irrigation, hydropower, industry and drinking water supply.
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Developing new scenarios for water allocation negotiations: a case study of the Euphrates River Basin

Developing new scenarios for water allocation negotiations: a case study of the Euphrates River Basin

Bankruptcy theory is a branch of cooperative Game The- ory which can be used in dispute resolution and resources allocation when demand or claim of countries is more than the total available resources (Ansink and Weikard, 2012). The bankruptcy theory was introduced in the seminal pa- pers by O’Neill (1982) and Aumann and Maschler (1985) and some aspects of this theory have been studied by sev- eral researchers (Alcalde et al., 2014; Aumann and Maschler, 1985; Hendrickx et al., 2005; Lorenzo-Freire et al., 2010; O’Neill, 1982; Pérez et al., 2010; Thomson, 2003, 2012). Few researchers tried to apply the bankruptcy rules to allo- cate the shared available water among riparian countries (Mi- anabadi et al., 2014, 2015; Madani and Zarezadeh, 2012). However, due to different definition of fairness, there is no certain documented method to choose the most appropri- ate allocation rule. Therefore, in this paper we established a new method to choose the most appropriate allocating rule which seems to be more equitable and reasonable than other allocation rules to satisfy the riparian countries. To eval- uate this new proposed method, we applied seven Classi- cal Bankruptcy Rules (CBRs) including Proportional (CBR- Pro), Constrained Equal Awards (CBR-CEA), Constrained Equal Losses (CBR-CEL), CBR-Talmud, Adjusted Propor- tional (CBR-AP), CBR-Piniles and Minimal Overlap (CBR- MO) and four Sequential Sharing Rules (SSRs) including SSR-Pro, SSR-CEA, SSR-CEL and SSR-Talmud in allocat- ing the Euphrates River water among three riparian countries.
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