In this chapter, we examine the college enrollment and persistence of CPS graduating classes of 2003 through 2007. The 2007 graduating class is the most recent cohort for whom we can estimate the likeli- hood of making an immediate transition to college and staying two years. We restrict our analysis to CPS students who are not in special education or alternative high schools and who entered senior year with the ACT scores and GPAs that would suggest that they would have access to: (1) somewhat selec- tive four-year colleges, and (2) selective colleges. These are the two groups where we observe wide variation in coursetaking within and across schools.
Figures 23 and 24 present the college outcomes of CPS students from these cohorts among graduates with access to somewhat selective colleges (qualified for a four-year college) and graduates with access to selective colleges. Students in Figure 23 represent 30 percent of CPS graduating classes in these years. Students in Figure 24 represent 19 percent of CPS graduating classes in these years.
Among CPS students who are qualified to attend a four-year college, 43 percent enrolled in a four-year college in the year after graduation. These students largely attended nonselective and somewhat selec- tive colleges (36 percent). We counted a student as
retained in college for two years if s/he remained continuously enrolled in any four-year college for two years after graduation. As seen in Figure 23, overall only 60 percent of graduates with access to a somewhat selective college enrolled in a four- year college in the fall after graduation and were continuously enrolled in any college for two years.
Figure 24 shows the same outcomes for students who have access to selective colleges. The majority (66 percent) of students who are more qualified to attend four-year colleges (access to a selective four-year college) enrolled in a four-year college in the year after graduation. Less than one-third, however, enrolled in a selective or very selective college. Once in college, more qualified students had significantly better retention. Overall, three- quarters of more qualified students who enrolled in a four-year college were continuously enrolled for two years after graduation. While this is substantially better than our students with access to somewhat selective colleges, it still means that only half (0.66* 0.76 = 0.50) of CPS students who have access to selective colleges go to a four-year college and stay in college for two years, and only 24 percent enrolled in a selective or very selective college (a match college) and stayed for two years. Figure 3-2-a
Seniors with Access to Somewhat Selective Colleges (CPS Graduates 2003–2007)
Note: This figure represents 18,983 CPS graduates between 2003–07 with access
to somewhat selective colleges.
Two-Year College 16% No College 41% Non/ Somewhat Selective 36% Selective/ Very Selective 7%
College Enrollment College Enrollment and Persistence at Four-Year Colleges
Overall
Non and Somewhat Selective Colleges Selective/ Very Selective Colleges Retention Rate of College Goers 60% 58% 71% FIGURE 23
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courses is about the same as the estimated effect of tak- ing only one AP course senior year. This suggests that for students with access to a somewhat selective college, it is having an AP experience—not the number of AP courses—that matters. Taking a fourth year of math is also associated with a smaller, but statistically signifi- cant, effect increase in the probability of these students enrolling in a four-year college.
Table 9 presents the same set of results for students with access to selective colleges. After addressing selec- tion, students who are positioned to attend a four-year college and who take two or more AP courses are substan- tially more likely to enroll in a selective or very selective college than similarly qualified students who take one or no AP class.53
Among these more highly qualified students, tak- ing one AP class has no greater effect than not taking any. But the predicted effect of taking two or more AP courses on the probability of a student with access to a selective college enrolling in a selective or very selec- tive college is quite large. We estimate that, among these higher achieving seniors, taking two or more AP courses is associated with a 19 percentage point increase in the probability of enrolling in a selective or very selective
college. This translates into a 60 percent increase in the probability of a college match or overmatch. Importantly, our estimates of the effect of taking AP courses on these students’ college enrollment vary little between the two models (with and without selection controls), suggesting that these findings are robust.
The general pattern of results, as seen in Tables 8 and 9, is that coursework, particularly participation in AP courses, matters for college enrollment at the mar- gin. For students who have access to somewhat selective colleges AP increases the likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college. However, for this group of students AP does not have a significant impact on attending a selective or very selective four-year college, which is unsurprising given their ACT scores and eleventh grade cumulative GPA. Among those students who are qualified to attend selective four-year colleges, taking multiple AP courses is strongly correlated with enroll- ment in a selective or very selective four-year college. AP does not, however, increase the likelihood of attend- ing a four-year college among this second group—partly because these students already are overqualified for most colleges.
Finally, for both groups, we find that coursetaking
COLLEGE ENROLLMENT AND RETENTION... CONTINUED
Figure 3-2-b
Seniors with Access to Somewhat Selective Colleges (CPS Graduates 2003–2007)
Note: This figure represents 18,983 CPS graduates between 2003–07 with access
to selective colleges. Two-Year College 9% No College 25% Non/ Somewhat Selective 36% Selective/ Very Selective 30%
College Enrollment College Enrollment and Persistence at Four-Year Colleges
Overall
Non and Somewhat Selective Colleges Selective/Very Selective Colleges Retention Rate of College Goers 76% 72% 80% FIGURE 24
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has no direct effect on persistence within four-year colleges. It is important to recognize, however, that while there are no direct effects of coursework, AP in particular does have an indirect effect on college retention because participation in AP is associated with enrolling in a four-year college and, among more highly qualified students, entering a selective college. Thus, AP indirectly leads to increases in the probability of persisting in college for two years. That is, taking an AP course is associated with improvement in college gradu- ation, not because students who take AP do better once enrolled but because a student’s likelihood of enroll- ment increases substantially.
Summary
This chapter is focused on whether there is evidence that the differences we observe in students’ coursetak- ing across high schools shape their college access and performance. The central finding is that senior year coursetaking makes it more likely that students will at- tend colleges that they are qualified to attend. Taking AP courses and a fourth year of math makes it more likely that students who have GPAs and ACT scores at the end of eleventh grade that position them to enroll in a some- what selective four-year college will enroll in a four-year college. Taking two or more AP courses makes it more likely that students who have GPAs and ACT scores at the end of eleventh grade that position them to enroll in a selective college will enroll in a selective four-year col- lege. In some ways, these findings are not surprising. The most obvious interpretation is that senior year course- work is advantaging students in college admissions. In Chapter 1, we found that colleges explicitly state that they use students’ coursetaking senior year as a signal of a students’ motivation and academic preparation, often conflating AP with rigor and college preparedness. That interpretation is supported by the fact that we find that it is taking one AP course and a fourth year of math that matters for enrollment in somewhat selective colleges, and it is taking two or more AP courses that matters for more selective colleges. CPS students who are more qualified and competing for slots in selective institutions in Chicago, such as DePaul or Loyola, are competing against students from other school systems who most often have multiple AP courses over multiple years.
Yet another interpretation is that students who take AP and a more college preparatory senior year may also garner more support in their college search and application process from their high school. Using CCSR data, Stoker (2010) found that CPS students who take two or more AP courses in their junior and senior years report greater levels of information and support in college planning and application. Even after matching students on their demographic characteristics, prior coursetaking, and school performance (ACT scores and GPAs), seniors who have taken two or more AP courses before graduation reported higher levels of support from teachers and counselors in filling out applications, applying for scholarships and financial aid and making decisions about colleges.52 These students were also more likely to report that their peers valued academic achievement. Importantly, Stoker did not find differ- ences in reports of parental involvement and expecta- tions for college attendance. The lack of a difference in parental support between students in the AP and matched control group suggests then that the differ- ences students reported in guidance and support for college planning from teachers and counselors reflects differences in these students’ experiences in school.
It also is not surprising that we did not find that AP courses alone led to greater college persistence within four-year colleges once we accounted for student selec- tion. This is consistent with previous research and the very low passing rates of AP exams for students in Chicago. As with our positive findings on the effects of AP on college enrollment, there are several alternative interpretations of what is driving the lack of effects of AP on college performance. The first is simply that AP is oversold and does not increase college readiness for any student, especially students who have low probabilities of passing the exam. A second interpretation, however, is that one or two AP courses may help a student in par- ticular subjects (e.g., AP English will assist in develop- ing college ready skills in English) but that we cannot expect one AP course to have effects across disciplines and effects on overall persistence. Sadler (2010), in a study of the effects of honors and AP science course- work on performance in college science, found that students who took AP reported higher science grades. This study did not address selection, but it does suggest
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that AP could have positive effects that are not picked up when AP is being judged by a student’s overall perfor- mance across her/his classes. And yet a third connected interpretation is that two-year retention in college is not an appropriate measure with which to evaluate the effect of AP. Unfortunately, we do not have access to CPS students’ transcripts once in college; thus we cannot examine whether CPS students who take AP do better in their courses, are placed in higher level courses, or are less likely to be placed in remediation—all potentially important effects.
Where we do diverge from prior research findings is that we do not find evidence that taking a fourth year of math shapes college retention. Again, we are using a rather blunt outcome—second year persistence within a four-year college. The most direct effect of students taking a fourth year of math might be on college grades and remediation rates outcomes that we were not able to study.55 Just as important may be the difference in
the kinds of math students are taking. Many CPS students who take a fourth year of math do not take advanced math (e.g., Pre-Calculus and Calculus), which might dilute benefits.
At the beginning of this chapter, we argued that coursework in senior year must accomplish two objectives. First, students need to be competitive in college admissions; and second, they need to be well prepared academically for college. Senior year coursework may benefit students through shaping college access and enrollment. But just adding a fourth year of math or an AP course, or ensuring that students take an academically focused senior year, does not appear to offer a magic bullet for college readiness. What would a senior year that is preparing students for college look like and how would that differ across students? In the next chapter, we turn to this final question by using a qualitative lens to look within and across courses.