Anticipated Development and Population Increase

3.4.1 Projections Research

Research of published population and dwelling projections for Wollondilly was undertaken as part of the preparation of this contributions plan (refer to Parsons Brinckerhoff 2004). This analysis compared projections compiled for the previous contributions plan, and those compiled for the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources and the former Department of Transport. Some of these projection sources were either outdated or not sufficiently fine-grained in their methodology to represent a meaningful reflection of future demand in the Wollondilly Shire. For this reason, an updated fine-grained projections assessment was undertaken – the findings of which are included in Section 3.4.2. A selection of data of annual housing production levels and forecasts from the projections research is shown in Table 3.4.

Table 3.4: Annual Housing Production Levels and Forecasts

Source Average Annual Net

Dwelling Creation

Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing 1991 to 2001

263 Wollondilly Section 94 Contributions Plan 2000 forecasts for period

1999 to 2009

328 Metropolitan Development Program (2002) for period to 2006/07 311 Wollondilly Shire Council dwelling data for the period 1998 to 2001 320 Wollondilly Shire Council dwelling data for the period 1991 to 1998 238

Average 292

The projections research assumed that, notwithstanding major individual land releases, Wollondilly LGA will continue to perform a fringe metropolitan development role (rather than comprise substantial ‘Bringelly-like’ urban release areas) and that overall dwelling creation in the future might reflect the net dwelling creation data recorded in Wollondilly in recent times.

The findings of the preliminary projections assessment by Parsons Brinckerhoff found that:

ƒ around 300 net additional dwellings might be expected to be created per annum, on average, over the longer term. This would translate into 8,100 additional dwellings (over the 1999 base) by 2026;

ƒ based on these findings and applying the household occupancy rate adopted for the current contributions plan (3.0 persons per dwelling), this would translate into an additional 24,300 people living in the Shire over the same period; and

ƒ using a lower occupancy rate, reflecting the aging population phenomenon, would yield a lower population increase over the same period.

The findings of the preliminary assessment were used as a basis to evaluate the reasonableness of the outcomes of the updated fine grained assessment discussed below.

3.4.2 Fine-Grained Population and Dwelling Projections

Methodology

The updated population and dwellings projection assessment sought to produce projections on a LGA/precinct/urban area/rural area basis for June 30 of each year from 2005 to 2026, inclusive. Results for each year were required in response to different facilities in the contributions plan having different timeframes.

The steps used to produce the projections are outlined below:

1. Calibrate population and dwelling numbers to 2005 levels. Data from the 2001 Census returns was adjusted to 2005 levels on a collector district (small area) basis, accounting for estimated resident population (instead of Census night count) and estimated private dwellings using Council development approval and waste services data for the 2001-2005 period.

2. Project LGA population based on different growth rate scenarios. The 2005 estimated resident population for the LGA was then projected forward to 2026 using three annual average growth rate scenarios: 1.8 percent, 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent (or low, medium and high scenarios). This resulted in a set of population projections for each year up to 2026.

3. Account for population in non private dwellings. The set of projections from step 2 were then adjusted to discount the estimated resident population living in non-private dwellings, as it is not likely that these types of development (hospitals, hostels and the like) will occasion the need for a Section 94 contribution. Based on recent Census results it was assumed that in the future 4 percent of the population will reside in non private dwellings.

4. Determine annual and total dwelling need for each of the scenarios using a range of marginal occupancy rates. ‘Marginal occupancy rate’ here means the rate of dwelling creation compared to population growth for a given time period. Between 1991 and 2001, Wollondilly’s marginal occupancy rate was 2.66 persons per dwelling. A marginal occupancy rate is a better occupancy rate to use to determine new dwelling need than say applying the prevailing gross occupancy rate to future dwellings (currently 3.01 persons per dwelling in Wollondilly), as the latter does not account for the phenomenon of ageing populations and declining occupancy rates over time. A set of low, medium and high marginal occupancy rates (2.5, 2.75 and 3.0 persons per dwelling) were then applied to the set of population projections to determine the annual dwelling requirement. Note: The marginal occupancy rate is an average across all dwellings and is distinguished from the occupancy rates used to determine per dwelling contributions under this plan (refer to Section 2.10). 5. Decide on the most appropriate population growth/dwelling need scenario.

The result of steps 1 to 4 yielded a range of projections results. The total and average annual results are summarised in Table 3.5. Upon further consideration it was determined that the most appropriate population growth/dwelling need scenario to consider at the next stage of projections analysis was ‘Medium population growth/medium marginal occupancy rate’ (highlighted in Table 3.5).

Table 3.5: Population Growth/Dwelling Need Scenarios Summary

Projections Steps and Scenarios

Population Growth 2005 to 2026 Additional Dwelling Need 2005 to 2026 Average Annual Population or Dwelling Growth Estimated Resident Population (step 2)

Low growth scenario 1.8% per annum 19,065 908 Medium growth scenario 2.1% per annum 23,601 1,124 High growth scenario 2.5% per annum 28,705 1,367

Estimated Resident Population in Private Dwellings (step 3)

Low growth scenario 1.8% per annum 18,303 872 Medium growth scenario 2.1% per annum 22,739 1,083 High growth scenario 2.5% per annum 27,557 1,312

Additional Dwelling Need (step 4)

Low growth scenario Low marginal occupancy rate 2.5 persons per additional dwelling 7,321 349 Medium marginal occupancy rate 2.75 persons per additional dwelling 6,655 317 High marginal occupancy rate 3.0 persons per additional dwelling 6,101 291

Medium growth scenario Low marginal occupancy rate 2.5 persons per additional dwelling 8,841 421 Medium marginal occupancy rate 2.75 persons per additional dwelling 8,037 383 High marginal occupancy rate 3.0 persons per additional dwelling 7,367 351

High growth scenario Low marginal occupancy rate 2.5 persons per additional dwelling 11,023 525 Medium marginal occupancy rate 2.75 persons per additional dwelling 10,021 477 High marginal occupancy rate 3.0 persons per additional dwelling 9,186 437

6. Distribute annual growth across the planning precincts in a way that most closely reflects the global LGA results. The annual LGA population increase and additional dwelling need projection results were then disaggregated on a planning precinct basis (refer Figure 1.1). The disaggregation was primarily based on assigning dwelling growth to the key growth areas identified in

Table 3.1. It was not possible or appropriate to reflect the average 2.1

percent per annum population growth rate assumed from step 5 in the population/dwelling forecasts for each year over the projections period, as it was envisaged that growth would occur in some growth areas in some years and other growth areas in other years. In other words, growth is to occur unevenly throughout the period 2005-2026, rather than at an average 2.1 percent per annum rate.

3.4.3 Synthesis

Based on:

ƒ a review of recent development and population trends up to 2005; ƒ an analysis of other published population and dwelling projections;

ƒ the range of environmental and infrastructure constraints that limit the ability for Wollondilly to greatly expand its capacity to provide new residential and rural residential development opportunities;

ƒ an understanding that much of the focus for new urban development in south west Sydney will centre on areas north of Wollondilly LGA;

ƒ the likely availability of new urban and rural residential development opportunities being largely limited to rezonings currently before Council and growth areas identified in Wollondilly Vision 2025; and

ƒ a projected population growth/dwelling need scenario in accordance with that highlighted in Table 3.5.

Projections for population have been compiled for the Shire as a whole and for the various planning precincts within the Shire. These projections are contained in Tables 3.6 and 3.7.

Table 3.6: Wollondilly LGA Population Projections

Estimated Resident Population at 30 June

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2005-2026 Additional population in occupied private dwellings by year (as adjusted) 588 1,180 1,132 1,798 1,605 1,605 1,550 1,621 1,529 1,377 1,352 1,132 1,065 1,007 966 822 612 587 570 376 184 Cumulative population in occupied private dwellings by year 40,135 40,722 41,901 43,033 44,831 46,436 48,041 49,592 51,213 52,742 54,118 55,470 56,601 57,666 58,673 59,639 60,461 61,073 61,660 62,230 62,607 62,876 22,739 Cumulative population in all dwellings by year (assume 96% reside in private dwellings) 41,806 42,418 43,647 44,826 46,699 48,371 50,043 51,658 53,347 54,939 56,373 57,781 58,960 60,069 61,117 62,124 62,980 63,618 64,229 64,823 65,215 65,407 23,601

Source: Wollondilly Shire Council Development and Environment Division

Table 3.7: Population in Private Dwellings Projections for Urban, Rural and Precinct Areas

Estimated ADDITIONAL Population Residing in Private Dwellings

2005 total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total change 2005-2026 PRECINCTS (ADDITIONAL) Precinct 1 4,785 33 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 225 225 225 225 222 170 170 170 170 170 170 33 33 3,437 Precinct 2 9,939 270 243 195 167 2 2 2 30 57 55 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 7 1,325 Precinct 3 19,579 220 220 220 831 831 831 776 825 750 738 738 793 755 776 735 619 327 312 312 281 141 12,032 Precinct 4 5,832 66 547 547 629 602 602 602 596 496 358 358 83 58 31 31 86 86 75 58 32 3 5,945