Anticipating problems

Anticipating manpower problems by projecting present resources into the future and comparing them with the forecast of the requirements, adequacy both quantitatively and qualitatively should be estimated.

4. Planning

Planning for recruitment, selection, training, deployment, utilization, transfer, promotion, development, motivation and compensation should be undertaken for manpower requirement.

The following figure depicts HRP process:

Organizational plans & policies

Human Resource Planning

Forecasting needs for human resources

Forecasting supply of human resources

Human Resource Planning

Surplus human resource Shortage of human resource Action plan for bridging gap

Organizational Objectives

The starting point of any activity in an organization is its objectives which generate various plans and policies. this leads to further course of action necessitating various sub-systems and programmes. in this process of HRP following questions will be raised.

1. Are vacancies to be filled by promotions from within or by hiring from outside?

2. How do the training and development objectives interface with the HRP objectives?

3. What union constraints are encountered in HRP and what policies are needed to handle these

4. How can the employee’s job be enriched?

5. How can one downsize the organization to make it more competitive?

6. How can one ensure continuous availability of adaptive and flexible workforce?

Human Resource Planning

Taking direction from organizational objectives and plans and above policy consideration human resource plan is prepared. the planning process consists of two major activities: forecasting needs of human resources and forecasting supply of human resources.

Identification Of HR Gap

Forecasting needs for human resources and forecasting supply of human resources, both taken together helps to identify gap between human resources needed and their availability.

Action Plans

Various action plans are devised to bridge the human resource gap. If there is surplus of human resources either because of improper HRP in the past or because of change of organisational plan, such as disinvestment of business or closing down some businesses because of various reasons, action plans may be devised to reduce their size through layoff, voluntary retirement etc. If there is shortage of human resources, action plans may be devised to recruit additional personnel.

Techniques For Forecasting Resource Needs

The following techniques are usually used.

1. Managerial Judgment Method 2. Delphi Technique

3. Work-study Technique 4. Ratio-trend Analysis

5. Statistical and Mathematical Models.

Managerial Judgment Method

This is a conventional method of human resources forecasting method. in this method managers prepare the forecast of human resource needs of various categories in their own departments on their past experiences. this method can be applied in two alternatives,

top-down approach or bottom-up approach. in top-top-down approach, top management prepares human resource plan for the organization as a whole with the assistance of HR department. this plan is circulated among various departments with an advice to make necessary amendments whenever required with justification. after receiving the document from various departments, human resource needs of various departments are finalized usually in a committee meeting of department heads.

Delphi Technique

This technique is named after the ancient Greek Oracle at the city of Delphi where the greek used to pray for information about the future. In the present World Delphi Technique is used in decision making in small groups. The problem and questions relating to HR requirement and related issues will be circulated to the expert group.

Their suggestions and replies will be sent to others and if needed queries made and final decision taken. This exercise is repeated until some consensus is reached. Delphi technique is quite useful where the problem cannot be solved by using analytical technique but its solution requires subjective judgements on a collective basis.

Delphi Technique can be used for forecasting human resource needs in two forms. First, it can be used to know the trends for changing job profile and consequently, the changing personnel profile across the country or at international level. Secondly, this technique can be used to solicit views of experts in different functional areas of an organization about the changing profile of personnel in their respective departments in the light of changing environment. Such views are collected and summarized by HR department to arrive at a decision about the types of personnel needed in future.

Work Study Technique

Work study technique is based on the volume of operation and work efficiency of personnel. Volume of operation is derived from the organizational plan documents and increase/decrease in operation can be measured. Work efficiency or productivity is measured by time and motion study which specifies standard output per unit of time, say per hour. Thus, the number of operatives required to complete specified

volume of operation is .

Planned Output

Standard Output Per Hour x Standard Hours Per Person

However, standard output per hour is not always a constant factor. Over a period of time it may increase due to training and higher technology. In this way required personnel may be worked out.

Ratio – Trend Analysis

Under this method, the main emphasis is on the ratios between production/sales level and direct operatives; ratios between direct operatives and other personnel say supervisory and managerial personnel. These ratios are worked out for a number of years based on the past records of the organization and future trends are projected on these ratios.

Such ratios can be worked out for various categories of personnel such as ratio of supervisors and middle management personnel, ratio of middle management personnel and higher level management for a comprehensive forecast of human resource needs.

Statistical and Mathematical Models

Following are the models that could be used for HR forecast.

1. Burack – smiter model 2. Regression analysis 3. Econometric analysis

In fact combination of different methods could also be used.

Forecasting of HR Supply

Forecasting of human resource supply is another important ingredient of HRP. After forecasting human resource needs, it is only

logical to determine how these needs can be met. For a new organization all personnel that are needed have to be procured from outside. But in an existing organisation, existing personnel are a source for higher positions. Armstrong has defined “Manpower supply forecasting measures that number of people likely to be available from within and outside an organization, after movements and promotions, wastage and changes in work hours, and other conditions of work”.

Identification of Human Resource Gap

Human resource gap is the difference between human resources required at a particular point of time and the human resources being available at that particular time. This gap can be identified on the basis of forecasts for human resources. Based on the analysis of this gap, action plans must be developed to overcome this gap. In the end it may result in reducing the personnel or increasing and recruiting the personnel in different categories.

Short-term Human Resource Planning

This may arise due to certain immediate vacancies that have fallen due to sudden increased production and large new orders necessitating more personnel.

Long – term HR Planning

This is based on projections and long term expansion programmes.

There will be sufficient time for deep contemplation, programming, recruiting and selection. Both quantitative and qualitative aspects of human resources could be taken care of in long – term planning and proper tuning.

Various Factors in HR Planning

Human resource planning at the enterprise level, to a large extent is influenced by a number of factors outside the enterprise. The human resource planner has to take into account with varying degrees of uncertainty political, social, economic and technological factors which

will have some influence on the planning process. Some of the factors are: