Table 1: Dataset: Samples and Sources
Country Sample period GDP Sample period CPI Source
Australia 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Austria 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Belgium 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Bulgary 1960q1-2008q4 1997q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Canada 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Cyprus 1995q1-2008q4 1996q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Czech Republic 1990q1-2008q4 1991q1-2008q4 OECD
Denmark 1966q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Estonia 1993q1-2008q4 1995q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Finland 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
France 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Germany 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Greece 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Hungary 1991q1-2008q4 1980q1-2008q4 OECD
Iceland 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Ireland 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Italy 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Japan 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Latvia 1990q1-2008q4 1996q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Lithuania 1995q1-2008q4 1995q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Luxembourg 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Mexico 1960q1-2008q4 1969q1-2008q4 OECD
New Zealand 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Netherlands 1960q1-2008q4 1960q2-2008q4 OECD
Norway 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Poland 1990q1-2008q4 1989q1-2008q4 OECD
Portugal 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Republic of Korea 1970q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Slovenia 1992q1-2008q4 1995q1-2008q4a Eurostat
Slovak Republic 1993q1-2008q4 1993q1-2008q4 OECD
Spain 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Sweden 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Switzerland 1965q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
Turkey 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
United Kingdom 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
USA 1960q1-2008q4 1960q1-2008q4 OECD
a: Original series in monthly frequency.
Weights for averaged indicators where computed by using annual data on real GDP (source:
Penn World Table) in international dollars with reference in 1996 (Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Com-parisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, August 2009) for the period 1950-2007 updated up to 2008 using the GDP raw data described above and used for the extraction of business cycles. For each country, weights were calculated relative to the group considered. Two schemes of weights were used. The first one, a time-varying scheme in which for each year the weight was calculated and therefore a series of (annual) weights was used when computing the indicators. The second one is a scheme based on the mean weight for the whole sample period. This last weighting scheme was used when calculating the standard deviation series in the Carree and Klomp (1997) test. Our results are robust to the use of both weighting patterns.
-4
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Austria
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Belgium
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Germany
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Spain
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Finland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 France
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Greece
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Ireland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Italy
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Luxembourg
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Netherlands
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Portugal
Figure 1: Demand shocks: EMU countries
-3
19941996199820002002200420062008 Czech Republic
19941996199820002002200420062008 Hungary
199219941996199820002002200420062008 Poland
Figure 2: Demand shocks: Enlargement countries
-5
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Australia
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Canada
19701975198019851990199520002005 Switzerland
19701975198019851990199520002005 Denmark
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 United Kingdom
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Iceland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Japan
1975 1980 1985 19901995 2000 2005 Rep. Korea
19751980 19851990 1995 20002005 Mexico
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Norway
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 New Zealand
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Sweden
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Turkey
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 USA
Figure 3: Demand shocks: OECD countries
-.4
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Austria
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Belgium
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Germany
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Spain
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Finland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 France
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Greece
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Ireland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Italy
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Luxembourg
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Netherlands
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Portugal
Figure 4: Demand component of (log) GDP: EMU countries
-0.6
19941996199820002002200420062008 Czech Republic
19941996199820002002200420062008 Hungary
199219941996199820002002200420062008 Poland
Figure 5: Demand component of (log) GDP: Enlargement countries
-.3
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Australia
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Canada
19701975198019851990199520002005 Switzerland
19701975198019851990199520002005 Denmark
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 United Kingdom
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Iceland
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Japan
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Rep. Korea
19751980 1985 19901995 20002005 Mexico
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Norway
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 New Zealand
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Sweden
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Turkey
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 USA
Figure 6: Demand component of (log) GDP: OECD countries
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00 .04 .08 .12 .16 .20 .24 .28
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
Figure 7: Dispersion in demand shocks and demand components of GDP: EMU countries
Table 2: Unit root test results for weighted standard deviation series
Setting with intercept Setting with intercept and linear trend ADF test stat. KPSS test stat. ADF test stat. KPSS test stat.
Demand shocks
emu − 12 -3.4709∗∗∗ 1.1963∗∗∗ -6.7394∗∗∗ 0.1763∗∗
oecd -8.5315∗∗∗ 0.8429∗∗∗ -9.2981∗∗∗ 0.1620∗∗
global1 -6.4368∗∗∗ 0.9787∗∗∗ -7.4474∗∗∗ 0.2191∗∗∗
Demand-GDP
emu − 12 -3.1612∗∗ 1.0264∗∗∗ -3.7994∗∗ 0.1375∗∗
oecd -4.6518∗∗∗ 0.3109 -4.7719∗∗∗ 0.1271∗
global1 -4.2967∗∗∗ 0.4939∗∗ -4.6158∗∗∗ 0.1286∗
Note:∗, ∗∗ and ∗∗∗ stands for significance at the 10, 5 and 1% level, respectively.
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Significant changes 2 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 4 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 6 years (demand shocks) Significant changes 8 years (demand shocks)
-.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Significant changes 2 years (demand-GDP) Significant changes 4 years (demand-GDP) Significant changes 6 years (demand-GDP) Significant changes 8 years (demand-GDP)
Figure 8: Significant changes in demand shocks and demand-GDP dispersion: EMU coun-tries
Table3:ARmodelswithstructuralchanges(SC):Demandshocks EMU-12-Partial-SC(intercept)OECD-Partial-SC(autoregressive)Global1-Partial-SC(intercept) Breaks(SSR) R=2(1986/1)(1983/1)(1983/1) R=3(1973/2,1980/3)(1983/1,1995/3)(1983/1,2003/1) R=4(1973/2,1980/3,1987/4)(1983/1,1995/3,2001/1)(1983/1,1995/2,2003/1) Sup-Ftest(`) Sup-Ftest(1)24.7549∗∗∗14.3905∗∗∗23.4684∗∗∗ Sup-Ftest(2)14.1404∗∗∗7.8362∗∗14.4576∗∗∗ Sup-Ftest(3)13.1405∗∗∗7.7994∗∗∗11.3112∗∗∗ UDmax24.7549∗∗∗14.3905∗∗∗23.4684∗∗∗ WDmax24.7549∗∗∗14.3905∗∗∗23.4684∗∗∗ Sup-Ftest(`+1/`) Sup-Ftest(2/1)4.94602.23390.9954 Sup-Ftest(3/2)15.1720∗∗∗1.41927.7244 No.breaksselected Sequential1∗∗∗1∗∗∗1∗∗∗ BIC311 LWZ101 EMU-12-Partial-SC(intercept)OECD-Partial-SC(autoregressive)Global1-Partial-SC(intercept) ˆα0,10.7051∗∗∗(0.0997)0.7593∗∗∗(0.0848)0.9133∗∗∗(0.1192) ˆα1,10.1738∗∗(0.0727)0.2257∗∗(0.0917)0.1728∗(0.0991) ˆα2,10.1314∗(0.0728)-- breakˆα0,2-0.3197∗∗∗(0.0635)--0.3518∗∗∗(0.0746) breakˆα1,2--0.3059∗∗∗(0.0867)- breakˆα2,2--- Break(1986/1)(1983/1)(1983/1) 95%Conf.Interv.(1985/2,1990/2)(1975/1,1987/1)(1980/4,1985/4) 90%Conf.Interv.(1985/3,1989/1)(1977/3,1985/4)(1981/2,1985/1) Uncond.expect.(R1)1.01480.98061.1041 Uncond.expect.(R2)0.55470.70290.6788 Variance(R1)0.16680.18890.1309 Variance(R2)0.04250.16630.1133 Q(1)test0.00280.12760.1516 Q(4)test2.13901.15670.2784 JBtest105.207∗∗∗1314.928∗∗∗2421.498∗∗∗ Note:*,**and***standsforsignificanceatthe10%,5%,and1%level.“Q(z)test”istheLjung-Boxteststatistic(LjungandBox,1978)forautocorrelation uptozthorder.“JBtest”istheJarqueBerateststatistic(JarqueandBera,1987)forresidualnormality.LWZisthemodifiedSchwarzcriterionofLiuet al.,1997.Thesignificancelevelofthesup-FtestswerecomputedusingthealgorithminBaiandPerron(1998and2003),using1000replicationswithWiener processesofsamplesize500.
Table4:ARmodelswithstructuralchanges(SC):Demand-GDP EMU-12-Partial-SC(intercept)OECD-No-SCGlobal1-Partial-SC(intercept) Breaks(SSR) R=2(1993/2)-(1984/2) R=3(1983/4,1993/2)-(1978/1,1984/2) R=4(1973/4,1983/1,1993/2)-(1978/1,1984/2,2003/2) Sup-Ftest(`) Sup-Ftest(1)25.4108∗∗∗-7.5139∗ Sup-Ftest(2)15.4828∗∗∗-7.2251∗∗ Sup-Ftest(3)13.6968∗∗∗-6.0937∗∗ UDmax25.4108∗∗∗-7.5139∗ WDmax25.4108∗∗∗-8.2341∗ Sup-Ftest(`+1/`) Sup-Ftest(2/1)6.7236-7.6642 Sup-Ftest(3/2)7.9787-5.4826 No.breaksselected Sequential1∗∗∗-1∗ BIC1-2 LWZ0-0 EMU-12-Partial-SC(intercept)OECD-No-SCGlobal1-Partial-SC(intercept) ˆα0,10.0465∗∗∗(0.0065)0.0309∗∗∗(0.0071)0.0460∗∗∗(0.0089) ˆα1,10.5284∗∗∗(0.0627)0.7446∗∗∗(0.0549)0.6784∗∗∗(0.0592) breakˆα0,2-0.0194∗∗∗(0.0043)--0.0161∗∗∗(0.0051) breakˆα1,2--- Break(1993/2)-(1984/2) 95%Conf.Interv.(1992/2,1997/4)-(1981/3,1996/2) 90%Conf.Interv.(1992/3,1996/3)-(1982/3,1993/1) Uncond.expect.(R1)0.09870.12080.1430 Uncond.expect.(R2)0.0576-0.0930 Variance(R1)0.00090.00250.0021 Variance(R2)0.0003-0.0006 Q(1)test0.83240.00040.0251 Q(4)test10.316∗∗1.07721.6357 JBtest82.683∗∗∗52.341∗∗∗60.754∗∗∗ Note:*,**and***standsforsignificanceatthe10%,5%,and1%level.“Q(z)test”istheLjung-Boxteststatistic(LjungandBox,1978)forautocorrelation uptozthorder.“JBtest”istheJarqueBerateststatistic(JarqueandBera,1987)forresidualnormality.LWZisthemodifiedSchwarzcriterionofLiuet al.,1997.Thesignificancelevelofthesup-FtestswerecomputedusingthealgorithminBaiandPerron(1998and2003),using1000replicationswithWiener processesofsamplesize500.
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Unconditional expectation (partial SC - intercept)
.00 .04 .08 .12 .16 .20
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Unconditional expectation (partial SC - intercept)
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Weighted standard deviation (OECD demand shocks) Unconditional expectation (partial SC-autoregressive)
.00 .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Weighted standard deviation (OECD demand-GDP) Unconditional expectation (no-SC)
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand shocks) Unconditional expectation (partical SC-intercept)
.00 .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand-GDP) Unconditional expectation (partial SC-intercept)
Figure 9: Dispersion regimes in EMU, OECD and Global1E[St| ˆT1, Rj, j = 1, 2] and 95% conf.
interval
0.0
Weighted standard deviation (Core demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (Core demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00
Weighted standard deviation (Core demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (Core demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
0.0
Weighted standard deviation (New members demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (New members demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00
Weighted standard deviation (New members demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (New members demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
0.0
Weighted standard deviation (EMU-22 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-22 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00
Weighted standard deviation (EMU-22 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-22 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
0.0
Weighted standard deviation (EMU-25 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-25 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00
Weighted standard deviation (EU-25 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EU-25 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
Figure 10: Dispersion in demand shocks and demand-GDP: Core, Enlargement group, EMU-22, EU-25
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (OECD demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (OECD demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00 .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (OECD demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (OECD demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global1 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00 .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (Global1 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global1 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (Global2 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global2 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand shocks) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand shocks)
.00 .04 .08 .12 .16 .20
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Weighted standard deviation (Global2 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (Global2 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation (EMU-12 demand-GDP) Weighted standard deviation trend (EMU-12 demand-GDP)
Figure 11: Dispersion in demand shocks and demand-GDP: OECD, Global1, Global2
-.3
Figure 12: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU (weighted, demand shocks)
-.04
Figure 13: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU (weighted, demand-GDP)
.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Austria
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Belgium
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bulgary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Cyprus
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Czech Republic
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Germany
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Spain
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Estonia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Finland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 France
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Greece
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Hungary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Ireland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Italy
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Latvia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Lithuania
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Luxembourg
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Netherlands
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Poland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Portugal
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovenia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovak Republic
Figure 14: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU-22 (weighted, demand shocks)
.02
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Austria
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Belgium
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bulgary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Cyprus
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Czech Republic
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Germany
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Spain
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Estonia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Finland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 France
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Greece
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Hungary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Ireland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Italy
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Latvia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Lithuania
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Luxembourg
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Netherlands
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Poland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Portugal
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovenia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovak Republic
Figure 15: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU-22 (weighted, demand-GDP)
-.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Austria
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Belgium
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bulgary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Cyprus
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Czech Republic
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Germany
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Spain
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Estonia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Finland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 France
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Greece
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Hungary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Ireland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Italy
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Latvia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Lithuania
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Luxembourg
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Netherlands
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Poland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Portugal
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovenia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovak Republic
Figure 16: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU-22 (unweighted, demand shocks)
-.08
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Austria
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Belgium
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bulgary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Cyprus
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Czech Republic
.010 .015 .020 .025
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Germany
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Spain
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Estonia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Finland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 France
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Greece
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Hungary
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Ireland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Italy
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Latvia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Lithuania
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Luxembourg
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Netherlands
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Poland
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Portugal
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovenia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Slovak Republic
Figure 17: Cost of inclusion of a country: EMU-22 (unweighted, demand-GDP)