The Arctic and the Antarctic

Often, the Antarctic gets forgotten, the reason is that most climate science is done in the N.H. and because not much seems to be happening in the Antarctic. The action of clouds generally, is for high clouds to warm, and low clouds to cool. But one very interesting feature of clouds is that all clouds over both the Antarctic and over Greenland provide warming. This is because even though clouds are fairly white (albedo 0.3 to 0.8) (Charlson, Lovelock, Andreae, & Warren, 1987), they are not as white as those surfaces (Antarctic average albedo 0.8, fresh snow 0.9) (Wiscombe & Warren, 1980); this means that they are not as reflective as those surfaces, and so even if they are present in the daytime, they do not cool those surfaces more than the absence of the clouds would. This results in a warming effect for any clouds which are over those ice caps at any height and at any time. This difference is important, as will be discovered.

The EGGWH predicts that both of the polar regions should warm more than the tropical regions if the greenhouse effect is causing the warming (Polyakov et al., 2002) this is in all the models, the theory and in the logic of greenhouse warming, which should be global in extent because the GHG are well-mixed and extend globally. Yet instead, far from warming more than other regions, Antarctica has been cooling for decades, in fact since 1966 (Doran et al., 2002). Antarctica recently attained its greatest measured sea ice extents of 20 million square kilometres, in 2015 (UIUC, 2017). Both the land ice and the sea ice in the Antarctic have been gaining mass recently (Zwally et al., 2015). This Antarctic cooling has been called a ‘mystery’ by many proponents of GHG warming, and a lot of effort has gone into trying to explain it (Thompson et al., 2011) (Doran et al., 2002). However, the Arctic, as per the prediction of the climate models, and the theory of EGGWH, has been warming in recent decades. But this current warming is no greater in extent and length to

122 REDUCING CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED FUGITIVE GHG EMISSIONS FROM OPERATIONAL LONGWALL COAL MINES one which is well documented, happened 1928-1945, and shows up in the HadCRUT4 Arctic data, (Figure 3.57).

3.5.5.1 The canary in the coal mine; Antarctica cools as the globe warms

Predictions by the hypothesis of the EGGWH – and all the projections from its models show that both poles must warm together and must undergo the most warming of anywhere on the planet – if the cause of the warming is the GHE (Lacis, 2010). This is because atmospheric CO₂ absorbs infra-red emissions from cold places more, due to them being in the 12-16 micron band; warmer places emit at shorter wavelengths around 10 microns, which is in the so-called ‘atmospheric window’ (Mathar, 2004). Yet the exact opposite is occurring; the Arctic and the Antarctic generally move in thermally opposite directions, when one warms the other cools and vice versa in a ‘see-saw’ (Ingólfsson, Hjort, & Humlum, 2003) (Figure 3.57), and this has continued through the current period of global warming. Moreover, these changes appear to be more related to known climate cycles and TSI changes than to any effects from GHG. For example, the Arctic has been warming since 1979, but a very similar warming in rapidity and size, also occurred 1910-1944 according to the UK’s Hadley centre and the climate research unit’s Arctic temperature graph (Figure 3.56). This graph shows the 70-90N monthly surface air temperature anomalies from HadCRUT4 compared to the base period 1961-1990 (CRU, 2016). The poles appear to be involved in a temperature see-saw (Chylek, Folland, Lesins, & Dubey, 2010) with one pole warming while the other cools and vice versa, with the fulcrum being at 60° south on a ~60-year cycle (Velasco et al., 2008) – this does not fit at all well with the GHG warming hypothesis (Figure 3.35). The recent ‘see-saw’ of the poles going in opposite directions is a mystery when the EGGWH is taken to be correct; yet the bi-polar see-saw is a long-term and a persistent feature of the climate system (Bilt, 2016). But when looked at through the lens of cosmoclimatology, the see-saw makes perfect sense, and has to do with the nature and actions of clouds; it fits perfectly with the predictions of the cosmoclimatology hypothesis.

123 REDUCING CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED FUGITIVE GHG EMISSIONS FROM OPERATIONAL LONGWALL COAL MINES Figure 3.57 The polar see-saw (Climate4you MSU RSS)

3.5.5.2 TSI climate forcing in the Arctic and black carbon pollution

This Arctic cycle of warming (Figure 3.58) appears to be driven by the well-known and well documented 61-year Yoshimura climate cycle which permeates many climate changes, including the AMO, the PDO, the NAO and the SOI, (Velasco & Mendoza, 2008; Yoshimura, 1979). This cycle (along with the Schwabe, Hale and Gleissberg climate cycles) are related to the Sun/planets and all these cycles manifest from solar activity changes, solar barycentre cycles or other planetary-induced solar changes. The equator to Arctic pole temperature gradient appears to be closely related to TSI changes (in red, Figure 3.59), there being a strong decadal correlation (Soon & Legates, 2013).

124 REDUCING CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED FUGITIVE GHG EMISSIONS FROM OPERATIONAL LONGWALL COAL MINES This is more evidence that the recent Arctic temperature rise is not just related to increasing atmospheric GHG concentrations, and means that climate dynamics may need to be revised for previous warm periods such as the Eocene and the late Cretaceous.

Figure 3.59 NH equator-to-pole temp gradient (blue) vs TSI (red) (Soon & Legates, 2013) Arctic sea ice melt; if the Arctic sea ice is melting more currently than it did in the last cyclic Arctic warming in the 1930’s (although there is no evidence that it is), it may not be related to temperature, since both periods were equally warm. Instead it could be albedo-related, i.e. caused by the presence of pollutants such as black carbon (M. M. Holland, Bitz, & Tremblay, 2006). There is no doubt that more of this pollutant has been seen over recent decades, with higher rates of bio-mass burning globally, and the rapid industrialisation of China (R. Wang et al., 2012), which has seen the construction of many hundreds of old-generation and highly polluting coal-fired power stations.