Assessment of Progress on SDG1 by Indicators

Indicator 1.1.1 Proportion of population below the international poverty line

Despite notable progress in poverty reduction, a large number of population are still poor in Bangladesh. The proportion of the population living on less than $1.90 a day measured at 2011

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international prices, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), shows decreasing trend in poverty over the last 30 years. Between 2010 and 2016, the incidence of poverty declined at an average annual rate of 0.87 percentage points.

Table 1.1: Percentage of population below the international poverty line

Poverty measure 1992 2000 2005 2010 2016

$1.90 a day 44.2 33.7 24.5 18.5 14.7

Source: PovcalNet, WB, 2016

Indicator 1.2.1 Proportion of population below the national poverty line

Bangladesh has shown remarkable progress in reducing poverty since 1991-92. National poverty measured as the proportion of population living below the national upper poverty line has consistently declined reaching 31.5 per cent in 2010 and 24.3 per cent in 2016. According to recent estimates it has declined to 20.5 per cent in 2019 (Table 1.2).

Table 1.2: Trends in Poverty Using Upper Poverty Line, 1992-2019 (per cent)

1992 2000 2005 2010 2016 2019 (estimated)

National

56.7 48.9 40 31.5 24.3 20.5

Urban

42.8 35.2 28.4 21.3 18.9 ...

Rural

58.8 52.3 43.8 35.2 26.4 ...

Source: BBS, Household Income and Expenditure Survey, various years and Planning Commission

While poverty has consistently declined over the period, the rate of fall shows some weakening during the 2010-2016 period compared with the 2005-2010 period. Poverty rate declined by an average annual 1.7 percentage points in the 2005-2010 period but it fell by 1.2 percentage points in the 2010-2016 period. The weakening of the effect of growth on poverty is attributable to rising inequality in income distribution. It is important to note that income inequality in Bangladesh (Gini coefficient) has increased from 0.36 in 1974 to 0.483 in 2016.

The trend till 2016 shows that rural poverty has been falling at a relatively faster rate compared with urban poverty resulting from rapid transformation of the rural economy. A notable feature of poverty reduction is that not only poverty rate has declined but also the absolute number of the poor has declined from 83.06 million in 1992 to 39.60 million in 2016 implying millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. With sustained growth in excess of 8 per cent in recent years and still higher growth rate expected in the coming years, poverty will continue to fall at a faster rate and may reach the milestone.

The figures for extreme poverty (lower poverty line) imply that it has also declined consistently during the period 2016-2019 (by 0.72 percentage point) compared with the 2010-2016 period (by 0.78 percentage point (Table 1.3).

Table 1.3: Trends in Poverty Using Lower Poverty Line, 1992-2019 (per cent)

1992 2000 2005 2010 2016 2019 (estimated)

National 41 34.3 25.1 17.6 12.9 10.5

Urban 24 19.9 14.6 7.7 7.6 …

Rural 43.8 37.9 28.6 21.1 14.9 …

Source: BBS, Household Income and Expenditure Survey, various years and Planning Commission

Indicator 1.2.2 Proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions To observe all dimensions of poverty using multidimensional poverty index (MPI), GED has recently constructed the MPI using the MICS (2019) data. It identifies people’s deprivations across three key dimensions – health, education and living standards, lacking amenities such as clean water, sanitation, adequate nutrition or primary education. Those who are left behind in at least a third of the MPI’s components are defined as multidimensionally poor. The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Institution (OPHI) has calculated MPI for Bangladesh using DHS 2004, 2007 and 2014. Bangladesh has shown a significant progress in reducing MPI poor. In 2004, around 67 per cent of the population was MPI poor. It has gone down to 41.7 per cent in 2014. The MPI also shows that Bangladesh is severely deprived in the indicator ‘cooking fuel (40 per cent)’, ‘housing (38.7 per cent)’, ‘sanitation’ (30.7 per cent), ‘assets’ (28.3 per cent ), ‘nutrition’ (25.6 per cent) and ‘years of schooling’ (25.2 per cent). As per BBS (2019), the MPI poor have further gone down to 37.5 per cent.

Table 1.4: Trends in Multidimensional Poverty Index, 2004-2019

2004 2007 2014 2019

MPI

National 0.365 0.292 0.198 0.18

Urban … … 0.103 …

Rural … … 0.233 …

MPI head count, %

National 67.2 57.8 41.7 37.51

Urban … … 23.0 …

Rural … … 48.6 …

MPI intensity (% of deprivations suffered by each person on average), %

National 54.3 50.4 47.5 46.84

Urban … … 44.9 …

Rural … … 47.9 …

Source: OPHI Country Briefing 2011 & 2019—Bangladesh using DHS 2004, 2007, 2014; GED, 2019

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Indicator 1.3.1 Proportion of population covered by social protection systems

Bangladesh has developed a wide network of Social Protection Programmes (SPPs) to address the problems of poverty, vulnerability and marginalisation. The programmes include civil service pensions, allowances for population groups with special needs, food security and disaster assistance programmes, workfare programmes and programmes focused on human development and empowerment. The government has adopted the National Social Security Strategy in 2015 to create a social protection system that is inclusive, better mitigates lifecycle risks and prioritises the poorest and the most vulnerable. The BBS provides data on coverage of Social Safety Net Programmes (SSNPs) beginning with the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005. The number of the programmes included increased in subsequent surveys. The coverage of SSNPs has increased both in terms of percentage of households as well as percentage of beneficiaries over time. Between 2016 and 2019, the proportion of programme beneficiaries has increased remarkably by more than double. In 2016, around 28 per cent of the poor households were under the coverage of SSNPs. It has increased to around 58 per cent in 2019 (Table 1.5). As can be seen, the coverage has increased rapidly between 2016 and 2019 in both rural and urban areas. Although all countries in South Asia recognise the importance of social protection as a tool for reducing poverty and all governments have sets of interventions in place, Bangladesh has emerged as the pioneer in the process of scaling up social protection to a more systemic level.

Table 1.5: Trends in Coverage of Social Safety Net Programs, 2005-2019 (Per cent)

National Urban Rural

2019 58.1 53.1 59.5

2016 27.8 10.6 34.5

2010 24.6 9.4 30.1

2005 13.06 … …

Sources: BBS, HIES various years, MICS, 2019

Indicator 1.4.1: Proportion of population living in households with access to basic services

The important indicators of access to basic services generally refer to access to basic education, health care services, and access to hygiene and sanitation. Bangladesh has shown significant progress in terms access to basic services (Table 1.6). The percentage of households having access to improved sanitation has gone up to around 84 per cent in 2019 from 56 per cent in 2012.

Similarly, the access to clean fuel and antenatal health care services has improved. As per MICS (2019), around 75 per cent of households have antenatal support. However, the rate of increase in primary school completion rate is somewhat stagnant. The primary school completion rate has increased by only 0.65 percentage point per year from 2012 to 2019. Households having access to safe drinking water and electricity are respectively 98.5 per cent and 92.23 per cent.

Table 1.6: Trends in Access to Basic Services

2012 2019

Percentage of household members using improved sanitation facilities 55.9 84.6

Percentage of household having access to clean fuel 9.9 19

Percentage of household having access to antenatal health care 58.7 75.2

Primary school completion rate 79.5 82.6

Household using improved sources of drinking water … 98.5

Household having access to electricity … 92.23

Source: BBS and UNICEF: MICS

Indicator 1.5.1 Number of deaths, missing persons and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 populations

Bangladesh is prone to various types of natural disasters because of its unique geographical location with the Himalayas to the north and the Bay of Bengal to the south. Key natural disasters are riverine floods, river erosion, flash floods, tropical cyclones, storms/wave surges, water logging, droughts, and landslides. Earthquake is also a potential threat to the country. Bangladesh is one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts as well. The frequency and magnitude of the natural disasters will increase with global warming and climate change impact. The government has, over the years, adopted measures to establish an elaborate disaster management system involving the central and local governments, non-government organisations and community level organisations to mitigate impacts of disaster and disaster related risks. This has resulted in significant reduction in natural disaster related deaths. One BBS (2015) report on impact of climate change on human life shows that a total of 12,881 per 100,000 persons were affected by climate related disasters in 2014.

Indicator 1.5.2 Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP

Direct economic loss is estimated as the monetary value of total or partial destruction of physical assets existing in the affected areas. These include homes, schools, hospitals, commercial and governmental buildings, transport, energy, telecommunications infrastructures and other infrastructures; business assets and industrial plants; production such as standing crops, agricultural infrastructure and livestock. They may also include environmental and cultural heritage (OECD, 2016). The estimates of Bangladesh disaster related statistics by BBS (2015) show the direct economic loss inflicted by disasters as a proportion of GDP stood at 1.3 per cent in 2014 (taken as baseline).

Indicator 1.5.3 Adopt and implement national disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

The Sendai Framework is the first major agreement of the post-2015 development agenda which aims to achieve substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries. The agenda includes seven global targets and four priorities for action.

The agreement is non-binding and envisages that the government has the primary responsibility to

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reduce disaster risk. But the responsibility has to be shared with other stakeholders including the local government, the private sector and other stakeholders. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) has prepared the National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM, 2016-2020) based on Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR, 2015-2030) and other international protocols ratified by the Government of Bangladesh. The NPDM 2016-2020 has a set of strategic aims reflecting its alignment with SFDRR, strategy guidance to relevant stakeholders, recognition of emerging risks and phased implementation of prioritised actions. A set of objectives allow operationalising the aims through identifying priority actions, providing a roadmap for implementation of at least 20 core investments, incorporating DM aspects in sectoral plans, exploring public-private investments, ensuring inclusivity, addressing emerging risks, promoting risk governance and illustrating how the work of various stakeholders can contribute to the government’s DM vision.

Indicator 1a.2 Proportion of total government spending on services (education, health, and social protection)

In order to meet its commitments to deliver essential services such as education, health and social protection, Bangladesh has devoted a significant amount of resources to these sectors. There has been an increasing trend in the absolute level of government spending in these sectors as well.

However, the share of these sectors in total government expenditure shows annual fluctuations.

In FY2015, government spending on these essential services as a proportion of total government expenditure stood at 4.81 per cent for health, 12.82 per cent for education and 12.72 per cent for social protection. The share of health sector peaked at 6.53 per cent in FY 2017. However, it has again dropped to 4.9 per cent in 2020. The share of education sector peaked at 15.15 per cent in FY2016 followed by a decline in the following year. However, it has again paced with its rate in FY2020. Around 15 per cent of the government expenditure is now used in supporting the education sector. The share of social protection peaked at 15.25 per cent in FY2017. But it has gone down to 14.2 per cent in FY 2019.

Table 1.7: Proportion of government expenditure on services as proportion of total government expenditure (per cent)

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2019-20

Education 12.82 15.15 14.42 15.20

Health 4.81 4.80 6.53 4.90

Social protection 12.72 13.60 15.25 14.20

Source: Ministry of Finance