The underlying assumptions of the model are based on the observation that the process of making decision on migration consists of two stages. The first stage involves the assessment of the situation in the region of residence – if it is unfavourable compared with other regions, individuals may decide to look for a job in another region. The second stage comes down to choosing a new place of residence.
This concept of migration leads to the estimation of two equations: one of them describes the intensity of labour resources outflow from particular regions, and the other examines the distribution of migrant population between destination regions. The study uses data on migration derived from the NPC covering the period 1989-2002 (for detailed information labour estimation models see Ap- pendix 3). This model allows to give a better insight into the factors, which determine the directions and intensity of human resources flows as presented in Table III.11.
First stage – impact of place of residence on probability of migration
In the model of the first stage of migration, the impact of variables describing the labour market situation is consistent with the pre- dictions of the classical model of migration. The higher the ratio of the number of the unemployed to the number of job offers in a given region (in relation to the average for all poviats), i.e. the smaller the relative chances of finding a job – the greater the intensity of labour resources outflow. The relationship between unemployment and migration has proven to be statistically significant. At the same time, migration was motivated by low average wages. Moreover, the model accounts for the value of the population index, which illustrates the availability of other regions.30 The latter is proved to be strongly negatively correlated with the intensity of migra-
tion. The above conclusion seems to be counterintuitive, however, it can be explained by the results on the interdependence between the availability of large agglomerations and the intensity of work commuting, which are discussed in greater detail in the next section. If a relatively underdeveloped region is located near to an attractive region, and the commuting time is not too long, workers may pre- fer to commute rather than to migrate. This suggests a substantial degree of substitutive interaction between work commuting and migration in Poland. Similar observation for Sweden have been made by Eliasson et al. (2003) – his study pointed that in regions lo- cated near to attractive labour markets, there was a significant mutual substitution of migration and commuting to work. Considering the problem of low availability of flats in Poland, it can be assumed that the choice between commuting and migration to a different region is additionally modified by the situation in the local housing market (Reichmann, Henderson 2000). The inclusion of a variable reflecting the availability of housing in the sending region (which is measured by the standardised number of newly provided rooms per capita) shows that a relatively large supply of flats is negatively correlated with the intensity of migration and therefore a favourable situation in the housing market in the sending region may discourage from migrating elsewhere.
Cluster of residence prior to migration
Development centres Suburbs
Towns
Former state farms
Low-productivity agriculture Agricultural and industrial
Development centres - -10 32 26 31 8 Suburbs - 1 3 9 3 Towns - 24 31 20 Forme state farms - 11 5 Low-productivity agriculture - -2 Agricultural and industrial - Cluster of residence after migration
30 The construction of this variable is discussed in greater detail in the Part on regional labour markets. At this point, it has been modified to take account of populations available in regions
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Table III.12.
Model results for the first stage of the migration process – decision on emigrating from the source region
a) Standardised regression coefficient
Source: Own calculations based on the NPC 2002.
From the point of view of labour resources outflow from a given region, high employment levels in services are of no significant importance, whereas regions with a large share of people working in agriculture (with distance and areas of potential destination regions being controlled for) saw a dynamic outflow of workers. This result is in line with the above-observed direction of population outflows from less- to better-developed regions, and may be connected with the inhabitants of rural areas searching for jobs in sectors other than agriculture.
Second stage – impact of destination region characteristics on probability of migration
In the model examining the determinants of choice of destination regions, all variables – apart from the number of unemployed peo- ple per job offer, proved to have a considerable impact, which was in line with the theoretical predictions concerning interregional migration flows. On the basis of the obtained results, it can be stated that high wages constituted a strong pulling factor for people who decided to change residence, similarly to the large share of services in employment. The larger the share of people working in agriculture in a given region, the lower the migration inflow. The situation is similar for distance and accommodation supply. The fact that a vast number of unemployed people per job offer did not discourage migrants from moving to a given region can be explained by referring to the results of the model examining an individual inclination to migrate (as presented in the previous subchapter) – mi- grants are often young and well-educated, whereas high unemployment in regions which see high inflows of migrants may result from difficulties in finding jobs for low-skilled workers and it may have nothing to do with the chances of finding employment by ‘typical migrants’.
Table III.13.
Model results for the second stage of the migration process – choice of destination (region)
Source: Own calculations based on the NPC 2002. Explanatory variables
logarithm of the function of population availability in other regions (weighted by distance)
standardised average amount of wage in the region standardised ratio of the number of the unemployed to the number of job offers
standardised share of people working in agriculture in the total population of workers in the region
standardised share of people working in services in the total population of workers
standardised number of newly delivered rooms per capita
Parameter estimate a) -0.47 -0.08 0.13 0.27 -0.02 -0.15 Significance level 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 Explanatory variables
number of unemployed people per job offer (ln) wages (ln of the average for the region)
share of people working in service in the total population of workers in the region (ln)
share of people working in agriculture in the total population of workers in the region (ln)
ln of the reverse function of distance
number of newly delivered rooms ber capita (ln)
Parameter estimate 0.0 2.9 2.0 –0.2 1.8 0.3 Significance level 0.40 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
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To sum up the results of the models for the both stages of the migration process, it can be stated that they confirm the theoretical predictions concerning migration flows. The higher the level of development of a given region, the greater the extent of outmigration. The more developed regions generally tend to attract migrants, but the extent to which they encourage migration inflow depends on the distance between the region of residence and the source region. The above results allow to assess the impact of labour market situation on mobility and they indicate that unemployment, wages and employment structure in a given region largely determine the tendency to change residence and affect the choice of the destination region. In general, the more distant the region, the weaker the pulling strength, although this relationship is not linear – it can be assumed that in the case of small distances work commuting constitutes an attractive alternative to migration. In the next chapter, we make an attempt at assessing this thesis. However, before we do this, we intend to classify the interdependencies between various forms of mobility.
2.4 Substitution of internal migration with other forms of mobility
The extent of internal migration in Poland – although obviously not one of the highest in the EU – does not seem to be exceptionally low, taking into account Poland’s spatial structure. On the other hand, however, if we put together information about international and internal migration, it may seem that the level of the internal mobility of the Polish people contrasts with the level of international mobility. Nevertheless, there is no contradiction between a relatively high intensity of one type of mobility and a relatively low inten- sity of another type, because they are mutually competitive. The substitution of decisions about moving to another region or to another country has been documented in empirical studies on population mobility in Poland (see, for instance, Korcelli et al., 1992) and is further confirmed by the observations presented in this report. Assuming that the total annual long- and short-term as well as seasonal migration abroad comes to the level of a several hundred of thousands, it can be assessed that more than 1 in 3 individuals, who decides to leave their home town (permanently, for a number of months or weeks) chooses to go to a different country rather than to a different region in Poland. In other words, for some jobseekers it is more profitable to take up employment abroad and earn higher or additional income than to migrate elsewhere in Poland.
In the recent years, the attractiveness of international migration has increased – due to both the opening of foreign labour markets and as a consequence of decreasing costs of taking up employment abroad, including, among others, the emergence of low-cost airlines, development of road transport services and increasing availability of the Internet. Moreover, the recent frequency of interna- tional migration may also be a reason why more and more people know other people who once moved or are currently staying in one of the EU countries and can give advice or assistance in decision about emigration. The existence of extensive social networks further lowers the cost of international economic migration.
The attractiveness of engaging in work abroad – due to its aggregate level – only partly explains the relatively low level of internal migration in Poland, especially that in the context of the entire population in the economically productive age international migration does not have a considerable impact of regional labour resources. For most people, work commuting constitutes a more available alternative to internal migration. The substitution of commuting and internal migration is often referred to in theoretical and empiri- cal literature (see, for instance, van Ommeren, 2004, van Ommeren et al., 1997, Cameron, Muellbauer, 1998). However, very few studies address both commuting and migration as alternative mobility forms and no attempts have been made to assess the relationship between them (OECD 2005, World Bank 2006a).31
Commuting can play an important role especially when the direct cost of migration is high. In countries, where the conditions for mi- gration are not favourable, people who are looking for employment outside their regions of residence tend to commute to work rather than move somewhere closer to it. Thus, the average level of migration is lower, which is often misinterpreted as low general mobility of labour resources. Commuting can also play a complementary role to migration. The choice of place of residence is then usually mo- tivated not only by low availability of accommodation in towns but also by more favourable living conditions within areas surrounding large urban centres. The complementary nature of relationship between migration and commuting should make the general levels of these forms of mobility ceteris paribus higher than in countries, where commuting substitutes migration. For example, in the 1970s and 1980s, suburbanisation trends were observed in a range of EU countries. These trends were connected with moving households to suburban areas characterised by easier access to leisure services as well as less noise and pollution.32 The beginning of these trends
can also be observed in some regions in Poland (see Box III.18). It seems, however, that the process of suburbanisation is currently still rather limited due to lower income level in the Polish society.
31 Empirical studies on the relationship between mobility and labour market situation rarely account for work commuting mainly because of the lack of available and comparable data. In this
report, we have given up the idea of including implicite flows of people commuting to work in the internal migration model because data on migration cover the entire period 1989-2002, whereas data on work commuting are only available for the year 2002. Although in general the impact of migration is cumulative, it seems that referring to cumulative flows for such a long period would entail a too large burden of error. However, work commuting is indirectly instrumentalised by the population index and accommodation availability.
32 The so-called green wave phenomenon in Sweden, Great Britain, and some regions in France – see the results of research studies performed as part of the project Internal Migration and
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