CACI data

CACI (Consolidated Analysis Centre, Incorporated) is an American based company specialising in information technologies and providing professional services to private and government organisations. Founded in 1962 the company opened the UK based CACI Limited in 1975 (CACI, 2016). Their services range from marketing, location planning, network services to technology solutions. CACI designs tailor made applications and tools in consumer segmentation, forecasting and retail catchments.

Using their own geodemographic profiling system (ACORN), CACI have produced estimates of e-commerce usage across different ACORN profile groups based on the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCFS) data, which covers about 50,000 respondents annually. CACI also have a set of control figures for online penetration, which are estimated based on ONS Retail Sales Index (RSI), industrial reports, and company annual reports. The Demographic data is based on 2012 population figures and the Acorn Population counts are based on 2013 figures.

The following data for the Yorkshire and Humberside region have been provided by CACI at the Postal Sector geography level for a total of 792 postal sectors.

1. Demographics within 47 parameters including Age, Gender, Ethnicity, Economic Activity, Social Grade and Family Structure. Table 5.2 provides summary of five major demographic groups and 47 demographic subgroups.

Table 5.2. Yorkshire and Humberside demographics

2. Count of Population by Acorn category, type and group. This detailed classification includes 62 types, which are aggregated into 16 groups from A to P. The ACORN demographic classification has been described in Chapter 3.

3. List of ProVision stores (Grocery supermarkets), their store sizes (square foot) and X and Y co-ordinates for the total of 511 stores in Yorkshire and Humber.

4. Estimated weekly household expenditure by products for two retail channels - residential (face to face) and online. The classification COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) is used to categorise the products. The grocery expenditure includes four COICOP groups – Food, Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Alcoholic Beverages and Cigarettes. The complete list of this classification is attached as Appendix B.

CACI Spend Estimates and Projections provide retail consumer spending patterns which are consistent with the Government National Statistics and calculated in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics with the use of their Regionalised Multi sectoral Dynamic Model (MDM), a widely used model for the UK economy at the

Age Bands Ethnicity Economic Activity Social Grade Family Structure Age 0-15 Total Persons 16-74 Persons 16-64 Families

Age 16-19 White Econ active AB Couple family Age 20-24 Mixed Employee C1 Lone parent family Age 25-44 Asian Self employed C2 Male lone parent family Age 45-64 Black Unemployed D Female lone parent family Age 65+ Other ethnicity

Fulltime student econ

active E Family 0 dependent kid Male age 0-15 Econ inactive Family 1 dependent kid 0-4 Male age 16-19 Retired Family 1 dependent kid 5-18 Male age 20-24 Other econ inactive

Family 2+ dependent kids youngest 0-4

Male age 25-44

Family 2+ dependent kids youngest 5-18

Male age 45-64 Lone parent 1 dependent kid 0-4 Male age 65+

Lone parent 1 dependent kid 5- 18

Lone parent 2+ dependent kids youngest 0-4

Lone parent 2+ dependent kids youngest 5-18

regional level (CACI, 2013). CACI’s own local area models, together with MDM, produce forecasts for 92 product groups and four purchase types (comparison, convenience, motor fuel and services) for any geographical area in the UK. They use flat real-term projections for the retail forecasts with non-increasing level of spend in real terms. The four spend modes (residential, online, workers and tourists) reflect the total expenditure within each category with no double counting. The residential expenditure originates at customer home addresses. Online expenditure is defined as the purchase for which the payment is made online: ‘Click and collect’ transactions where the payment is made in a physical store are not classed as online expenditure. The online spend estimation is the total expenditure made online by people resident in each postal sector. These estimates are based on various open data sources including the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF). The overall online penetration is based on ONS RSI figures and projections derived from the ONS RSI time series. CACI’s researchers expect online penetration to continue to increase in the future at a linear rate until 2025 (CACI, 2013). CACI’s UK spend estimation approach follows two phases. Firstly, product group prices and expenditure are calculated at the national and regional levels. Secondly, the data is disaggregated at the local level with model applications. CACI uses logistic and generalised linear models to predict buyer rates (the proportion of the population in a local area who will spend money on the product) and spend rates (the average expenditure among all consumers). Local area spend at the product group level is disaggregated by detailed product lines based on the Acorn classification. Figure 5.4 provides an overview of the CACI methodology.

Figure 5.4. CACI methodology of Estimates and Projections. Source: CACI, 2013

The inputs (Cambridge MDM, COICOP Groups, LCF and CACI Area data) are indicated in blue and outputs are indicated in green.

Online estimates and projections are based on the ONS Retail Sales Index and the ONS index of Internet connectivity which are enhanced with information published by private companies (annual reports and trading statements from the major Internet retailers).

Cambridge Regionalised MDM

National COICOP Group Totals (Base Year and Historical Series)

Regional forecasts of spend for product groups

Forecasts of price inflation for product groups

LCF CACI

Areadata

Local COICOP group buying rate and spend models

Regional COICOP group totals (Current and base years)

Local COICOP group expenditure (Current and base years)

Detailed product category expenditure (Current and base years)

Local COICOP group expenditure (Forecast years)