Case Selection

I choose my cases on the independent variables labor absorption capacity and social willingness. Germany is a critical case study. I prefer Germany to other CMEs with low labor absorption capacities because I believe it is a tough test for my theory. Germany has received the most number of asylum seekers than any other European country during the latest episode of asylum crisis between 2014 and 2016. By 2015, the registered number of Syrians has reached 494, 22727 in Germany. Germany registered 722,300 first-time applicants in 2016 alone, making it a member state with 60% of all first-time applicants in the European Union28_{, even ahead of the border countries} such as Italy and Greece. It means six in every ten people who reached Europe applied asylum in

27_{UNHCR (2017) http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/asylum.php}

28 _{Eurostats Newsrelease (March 2017) http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7921609/3-16032017-BP-}

Germany. Germany’s “open door” policy attracted both praises from the international community for the humanitarian approach the country adopted29 and at the same time a serious critique of the government policy that put the German nation under risk, economically, socially, and security wise30. For both admirers and critiques, the perception is that Germany is the champion of the refugee protection, especially during the latest asylum crisis. This perception is a problem for my theory because as a textbook CME, I claim Germany has low levels of labor absorption capacity and therefore is supposed to adopt an exclusive asylum policy such as closing up its borders, providing insufficient protection only temporarily or increasing the number of deportation. Through a detailed analysis of the German national asylum regime between 2014 and 2016, I aim to show the correlation between my independent variables of primary interest “the labor absorption capacity and social willingness” and Germany’s national asylum regime, which I believe is not as generous or altruistic as perceived. If my theory can explain “the exception,” a CME with low labor absorption capacity but an allegedly inclusive asylum policy, it will lend me some confidence that the idea is potentially generalizable to other destination countries with low labor absorption capacities beyond my case.

As for the LME type with high labor absorption capacity, I resort to Turkey as my example case. This choice begs justification because Hall & Soskice (2001) explicitly classify Turkey neither as a CME nor as an LME. According to the fathers of the VoC approach, Turkey is an ambiguous case

29 _{Bloomberg (2016) “Merkel Wins IMF, OECD Praise for Refugee Stance as Down Payment”}

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-05/merkel-hailed-by-imf-s-lagarde-for-humanistic-refugee-policy Express (February 2017) “This Woman is a SHAME’ Outcry as Angela Merkel given award for open-door migrant policy”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/762467/angela-merkel-award-open-door-migrant-policy-germany Deutsche Welle (January 2017) “French presidential candidate Macron praises Merkel’s refugee policy” http://www.dw.com/en/french-presidential-candidate-macron-praises-merkels-refugee-policy/a-36971293 The Local (September 2016) “Obama thanks Merkel for open refugee policy”

https://www.thelocal.de/20160921/obama-thanks-merkel-germany-for-open-refugee-policy

30 _{Bloomberg (July 2016) “Merkel Refugee Policies Face Renewed Criticism After Attacks”}

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/merkel-weighs-fallout-from-attacks-as-refugee-debate-reignites Newsweek (December 2016) “BERLIN ATTACK: GERMAN POLITICS IS ‘PARALIZED BY TERROR’

“that may constitute another type of capitalism described as ‘Mediterranean’ marked by a sizeable agrarian sector and recent histories of extensive state intervention,” (p.21). Although it is true that Turkish state is involved in the economy more than a regular LME, I believe the institutions and regulations regarding the labor market are very much compatible with the LME type setting. Since the 1980s, Turkish industrial policy has created a cheap and weak labor market that simply does not have the means to engage in meaningful wage or labor rights bargains with the employers. Therefore, both the firms and the employees solve their coordination problems with each other through market-based solutions even though other segments of the economy might have a more coordinated institutional setting. Additionally, although Turkey has put in place a skill training system that aims at building specific skills to meet the demands of the industry, the top-down approach of the Turkish education system combined with the lack of coordination with specific industries leave this system ineffective, and incentivizes both the employers and the employees to invest in general skills.

Turkey is also a compelling case because the country, which has never been among the primary refugee-hosting states, has registered 2,992, 56731 Syrian refugees alone since the beginning of the Syrian civil war and landed on the top of the list. Moreover, the AKP government refused to get foreign assistance in handling the refugee crisis and ended up paying $25 billion32 out of its national budget. It is worth investigating how much of these efforts translated into formal refugee protection policy with quality protection for asylum seekers as well as whether there are differences in state policies based on the identity of the incoming asylee group.

31 _{UNHCR (2017) Syria Regional Refugee Response}

http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=224

32 _{Mehmet Cetingulec (2016) “How did Ankara’s spending on Syrian refugees jumped to $25 billion?” Al-Monitor}