3. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
3.1. Micro-level analysis of six case studies
3.1.4. Case Study 2: Colombia
Colombia has been affected by a protracted internal conflict for more than 50 years, involving fighting between irregular guerrilla groups, state forces and, from the 1990s onwards, paramilitary groups. Drug trafficking fuelled the conflict during the 1980s and 1990s, intensifying confrontation between the groups, and generating large movements of population from rural to urban areas. It is estimated that more than 4 million people have been displaced in the last 15 years, representing almost 10% of the total population of Colombia, and covering 90% of all municipalities (Accion Social 2010, cited in Calderon et al. 2011). These numbers are second only to the situation in Darfur.
The availability of data in recent years has allowed several empirical analyses around the determinants and consequences of the Colombian conflict at the micro-level (Ibañez and Moya 2006, 2009, Calderon et al. 2011, among others). The descriptive analysis presented in this section will aim to expand this body of research, by providing evidence on the impact of the Colombian conflict on women‘s role and activities, their status within their households, and their contribution to household welfare and community recovery. The analysis makes use of a cross-sectional household survey conducted in 2010 – the Demographic and Health Survey (CODHS) – collected by Profamilia and funded by USAID. The survey includes a nationally representative sample of over 50,000 households, located in urban and rural areas. It contains information on household composition, dwelling characteristics, household assets, detailed information on women of reproductive age (13-49 years) and their partners (including economic occupations) and intra-household decision-making processes. The survey also includes self-reported information on migration patterns of women aged 13-49 years in the 5 years prior to the interviews, including migration caused by violence. We use this information to identify households exposed to the conflict, assigning a value of one to those households in which at least one member of the household reported migration due to violence (displacement). We have followed the methodology adopted by Calderon et al. (2011), and compare displaced households with non-displaced households living in rural areas, as displacement in Colombia involves migration from rural to urban areas in a large proportion.16 The sample used in the analysis in this section includes 14,856 not displaced rural households, and 650 displaced households, located in 45 clusters.
a) Impact of conflict on gender roles
Table 1 reports our main findings on the impact of displacement on household composition. In general, the results in table 1 show that displaced households in Colombia are larger than non-displaced rural households, exhibit larger dependency rates, have more female members and are more likely to be headed by a woman. These results (with the exception of the latter result) are similar across male- and female-headed households, although dependency rates are significantly higher in female-headed households. These effects are due to the fact that displacement in Colombia often results in the formation of new extended households, with women being responsible for the care of their children, as well as those of relatives and friends (Ibañez and Moya 2006, 2009).
16 Even though we adopt a similar methodology, the results presented here are not entirely comparable to those presented in Calderon et al (2011), first, because we use the 2010 DHS survey while the authors use the 2000 and 2005 surveys and, second, because we do not restrict the sample to married or cohabiting partners, as our purpose is to capture any changes in households composition associated to displacement.
35 Table CL 1. Impact of conflict on household composition changes in Colombia
All Female headed households Male headed households
Indicator Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff
t-test Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff
t-test Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test HH size (average) 15,506 4.229 5.443 -1.215 *** 3,861 3.866 5.214 -1.348 *** 11,645 4.347 5.556 -1.210 ***
Composition
Share of children
0-6 yrs 15,506 0.130 0.179 -0.049 *** 3,861 0.114 0.151 -0.037 *** 11,645 0.135 0.193 -0.058 ***
Share of children
7-15 yrs 15,506 0.174 0.259 -0.084 *** 3,861 0.189 0.311 -0.122 *** 11,645 0.170 0.233 -0.063 ***
Share of males
16-65 yrs 15,506 0.318 0.236 0.081 *** 3,861 0.197 0.141 0.057 *** 11,645 0.357 0.284 0.073 ***
Share of females
16-65 yrs 15,506 0.282 0.313 -0.031 *** 3,861 0.374 0.380 -0.006 n.s. 11,645 0.253 0.280 -0.028 ***
Share of elders
>65 yrs 15,506 0.096 0.013 0.083 *** 3,861 0.126 0.018 0.108 *** 11,645 0.086 0.010 0.076 ***
Dependency ratio (<16 and >65 /
16 to 65 yrs) 14,760 0.846 1.109 -0.263 *** 3,597 0.970 1.375 -0.405 *** 11,163 0.807 0.978 -0.171 ***
Female/male ratio
(16 to 65 yrs) 37,148 0.486 0.555 -0.070 *** 8,262 0.599 0.693 -0.094 *** 28,886 0.454 0.497 -0.043 ***
Female headed
household 15,506 0.245 0.331 -0.085 *** 3,861 1.000 1.000 0.000 n.s. 11,645 0.000 0.000 0.000 n.a.
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010.
Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%. n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant.
36 Table CL 2. Impact of conflict on economic roles by gender in Colombia
Females Males
Position in HH / Indicator Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test
Labor Force Participation, HH Heads
Employed 3,853 0.447 0.572 -0.125 *** 11,632 0.901 0.885 0.016 n.s.
Unemployed 3,853 0.005 0.028 -0.023 *** 11,632 0.014 0.060 -0.045 ***
Inactive 3,853 0.548 0.400 0.148 *** 11,632 0.085 0.055 0.030 **
Labor Force Participation, Others
Employed 16,178 0.254 0.321 -0.067 *** 9,297 0.715 0.646 0.069 ***
Unemployed 16,178 0.007 0.023 -0.016 *** 9,297 0.032 0.087 -0.055 ***
Inactive 16,178 0.740 0.657 0.083 *** 9,297 0.253 0.267 -0.014 n.s.
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010.
Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%. n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant.
37 Table CL 3. Impact of conflict on employment characteristics in Colombia (women aged 15-49 years)
Women aged 15-49
Indicator Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test Labour situation
Not worked in last year 13,436 0.411 0.349 0.062 ***
Work in last year 13,436 0.129 0.155 -0.026 **
Currently working 13,436 0.460 0.497 -0.037 **
Type of occupation
Professional, managerial 7,968 0.089 0.088 0.001 n.s.
Service-related 7,968 0.613 0.764 -0.151 ***
Agricultural workers 7,968 0.245 0.098 0.147 ***
Manual workers and others 7,968 0.012 0.007 0.005 n.s.
Type of earnings
Not paid 7,968 0.127 0.076 0.051 ***
Cash 7,968 0.848 0.919 -0.072 ***
In kind only 7,968 0.025 0.005 0.020 ***
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010.
Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%. n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant.
38 Table 2 compares patterns of labour market participation across displaced and non-displaced individuals and households. The results show that displaced women are significantly more likely to be employed than non-displaced women. The increase in employment rate is 12.5% for female heads of households, and 6.7% for other women in the household. Unemployment rates are, however, also higher amongst all women, indicating that not only more displaced women are employed but also that more were looking for jobs in 2010, resulting in lower rates of inactivity among working age females in Colombia. These results contrast with the situation of displaced men, who experience a decrease in employment rates, when compared to non-displaced rural men. Male heads of households faced a 1.6% reduction in employment when displaced, while other men are 6.9% less likely to be employed in relation to their non-displaced rural counterparts. As in the case of women, displaced men are also more likely to be looking for jobs than non-displaced men. This finding is in line with the results reported for Colombia in Calderon et al. (2011), and also with research on displaced populations in Bosnia, as discussed in the previous section (Kondylis 2010).
The results in table 2 complement other findings in the literature that displacement may bring about additional responsibilities for women, as they are more likely to be the main breadwinners in their households, and have more members depending on them. The increase in labour market participation of displaced women in Colombia may be due to displaced women being better able to cope with displacement as their skills are more suitably matched to the needs of urban labour markets (as highlighted in Calderon et al. 2011). As with other case studies, these results confirm the hypothesis that exposure to violent conflict may be associated with changes in women‘s roles and responsibilities, notably in terms of increased female labour market participation (hypotheses 1 and 2).
Table 3 presents more disaggregated information on the characteristics of reproductive age females (15-49 years). We find that displaced women are 15% more likely to be employed in service-related activities, and less likely to be employed as agricultural workers. They are also 7.2% more likely to be earning cash than non-displaced women. Although it is not clear what exactly service-related activities include, the results do show that at least in the case of Colombia growing employment trends among displaced women seem to take place in better-paid jobs than what they would be been able to attain if they had stayed in rural areas. In the sections below, we analyse the impact of these employment trends on women‘s empowerment, and community and household welfare.
b) Impact of changes in gender roles on women’s empowerment
The CODHS 2010 collects very rich information on intra-household decision-making processes.
In particular, the dataset allowed the analysis of women‘s contribution to household income, as well as women‘s direct participation in decision-making processes in the household with respect to the money they earn, and with respect to household decisions about health issues, large household purchases, household daily needs, food expenditure and other non-specified household matters.17 We start by analysing the share of women‘s contribution to household income. Table 4 shows that women in displaced households contribute quite significantly to household income. The difference for ‗more than half‘ contribution is statistically significant.
17 We considered that women are highly involved in household decision-making processes if decisions are made by themselves only or jointly with their partners. Decisions about the use of their money are restricted to a sample of married employed women that earn cash in exchange for their work. Decisions about other household matters refer to all women of reproductive age (15-49 years old).
39 In line with findings reported in Calderon et al. (2011), the results in table 4 show that women‘s contribution to overall household income does not translate into larger participation of women in household decision-making processes in relation to how women‘s own money is spent. In terms of other household decisions, the results in table 4 indicate that displaced women that report having been employed in the year prior to the survey are more likely to be involved in household decision-making processes in relation to household health issues, large household purchases, household daily needs and other not specified household matters.18 We have not found any statistically significant results with respect to women‘s participation in household decision-making processes when women are not employed. This result departs slightly from the findings reported in Calderon et al. (2011), suggesting the presence of potential gains in terms of women bargaining power within households after displacement when displaced women are employed.19
Table CL 4. Impact of changes in gender roles on women’s status in Colombia
Women aged 15-49
Indicator / Status of Woman Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test Woman contribution to hh expenditure (currently married, and earn cash last year)
Nothing or almost nothing 4,295 0.268 0.212 0.056 **
Less than half 4,295 0.237 0.226 0.011 n.s.
Half 4,295 0.315 0.319 -0.004 n.s.
More than half 4,295 0.101 0.139 -0.038 **
Everything 4,295 0.079 0.104 -0.025 n.s.
Who decides how to spend woman's money (currently married, and earn cash last year)
Woman alone 4,295 0.711 0.719 -0.008 n.s.
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010. Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%. n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant.
18 Interestingly, the results for women‘s involvement in decisions about food expenditure are not statistically significant. We have not been able to provide an explanation for this result, and further econometric analysis would be needed.
19 However, more sophisticated econometric analysis would be needed to confirm these results fully, and make them strictly comparable to the causal effects reported in Calderon et al. (2011). It is however possible that these effects are present in the 2010 dataset but not in the 2000 and 2005 datasets analysed by Calderon et al. (2011).
40 c) Impact of changes in gender roles on household welfare
Table 5 presents the results of the analysis of the impact of changes in the economic roles of men and women as a result of the conflict in Colombia on overall household welfare. We make use of the wealth index provided in CODHS, which measures the socio-economic status of each household based on assets possessed by the household, access to services, housing conditions, and other key wealth-related characteristics. The index is used to classify households within wealth quintiles, with households in the last 2 quintiles considered to be poor or severely poor.
Contrary to other case studies where household welfare is measured in terms of per capita income or consumption expenditure, we refer here to household welfare in terms of household levels of poverty using an asset-based measure of wealth.
The results in table 5 show that displaced households have a significantly lower incidence of poverty (by 33%) than non-displaced households. This result is probably due to the fact that displaced households move to urban locations where access to services and assets is higher. The impact of women‘s greater participation in labour markets on household welfare levels is striking. Displaced households that have at least one women working are almost 40% less likely to be poor or severely poor than households that were not displaced. The impact of employed displaced women on household welfare is particularly significant in cases when the household head is not employed. In those cases, the household is 60.8% less likely to be poor or severely poor than households that were not displaced. These results strongly point towards the substantial importance that female employment entails for displaced households in Colombia in terms of keeping them out of poverty. This result is probably highly related to the difficulties experienced by displaced men in finding jobs that match their skills in urban areas in Colombia, as reported in Calderon et al. (2011). Overall this analysis shows strong support for the hypothesis that greater participation in labour markets among women affected by conflict is associated with positive household welfare effects (hypothesis 5).
Table CL 5. Impact of changes in gender roles on household welfare in Colombia
All
Indicator / Status of Woman Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test Average poverty per hh
All households 15,506 0.989 0.658 0.330 ***
No female member employed 8,949 0.991 0.729 0.263 ***
At least 1 female member employed 5,176 0.982 0.584 0.398 ***
When hh head is employed 12,219 0.989 0.687 0.302 ***
No female member employed 6,442 0.992 0.758 0.234 ***
At least 1 female member employed 4,603 0.983 0.624 0.360 ***
When hh head is not employed 3,287 0.988 0.556 0.431 ***
No female member employed 2,507 0.990 0.652 0.337 ***
At least 1 female member employed 573 0.975 0.367 0.608 ***
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010.
Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%.
n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant
41 d) Impact of changes in gender roles on community welfare
This final section examines how changes in women‘s economic roles associated with the Colombian conflict affect economic welfare at the community level. In order to conduct this analysis, we have classified different communities (clusters) according to the level of conflict-affected households living within them. We have assigned a value of 1 to communities where at least one household was displaced and 0 otherwise. Due to the Colombian context, it is plausible to assume that if one displaced household was found in a particular cluster, the real proportion of displaced households living in the same area is very high, as displaced households tend to cluster together (Ibañez and Moya 2006). We have, in addition, estimated the aggregated average proportion of poor households in each community, and identified communities according to the share of women in employment (below or above the sample average).
Table 6 shows the results of the exercise. In general, we find that communities with displaced households have lower incidence of poverty than rural communities. This result is due to the fact that displaced communities are more likely to be located in urban areas. We observe that both communities with below and above average shares of employed women are less likely to exhibit high levels of poverty incidence. However, communities affected by displacement that have above average shares of female workers are 46.4% less likely to be classified as poor in relation to their non-affected counterparts. In contrast, communities affected by displacement with below the average shares of employed women are only 32.5% less likely to be classified as poor.
Table CL 6. Impact of changes in gender roles on community welfare in Colombia
All
Indicator / Status of Women Obs Non-
displaced Displaced Diff t-test Average poverty per hh
All Communities 1,885 0.990 0.596 0.394 ***
Below average share of working females 1,204 0.992 0.667 0.325 ***
Above average share of working females 681 0.985 0.521 0.464 ***
Source: Own calculations based on CODHS 2010.
Notes: *** statistically significant at 1%, ** statistically significant at 5%, * statistically significant at 10%.
n.s. indicates results that are not statistically significant.
The establishment of a causal relationship between female employment in displaced households and community poverty levels would require more sophisticated econometric analysis. This is beyond the scope of phase I of this study due to the complexity of the technical issues involved, notably the need to correct for possible selectivity biases in self-reported displacement data.
However, the results discussed above suggest strong support for the hypothesis that increased female labour market participation, as a result of the exposure of households to armed conflict, may result in positive economic gains for their communities, as well as for their households (hypothesis 6).