Survey respondents were asked to consider a range of challenges and issues facing Antarctic conservation today and into the future. Responses were recurrently sought using rating scales, as described below.
The current condition of Antarctica’s natural environment was rated by respondents as being above average. Antarctica’s ‘ocean’, ‘air’, ‘land’, ‘cultural heritage’ and ‘wildlife’ were all elements rated at or above a mean of 66 on a relative scale of 0 to 100 (0 being poor and 100 excellent). Additionally, on a relative scale of 0 to 100 (where the current condition of Antarctica’s environment was
compared to its condition in 1998 on a scale where 0 = ‘substantially worse than in 1998’ and 100 =
‘substantially better than in 1998’), respondents perceived the general condition of Antarctica’s
environment now as ‘neither better nor worse’ (M=54.39, SD=17.03, n=66) in comparison to its condition in 1998 when the Protocol came into force.
In terms of survey respondents’ perceptions about what needs protecting in Antarctica, the majority of respondents ranked ‘ecological ecosystems’ as the most important, followed by ‘wildlife’,
‘landscapes’and ‘historic sites and artefacts’ (see Table 4.2).
10 Although not all respondents live in New Zealand, their answers were included in the analysis as their country of residence does not affect their capacity to work in Antarctic matters through New Zealand.
Fre q u en cie s
Table 4.2 Respondents' rankings of the most important things to protect in Antarctica (n=79)
Ranking
# Things to protect in Antarctica 1 2 3 4 5
1 Ecological systems 55 21 3 0 0
2 Wildlife 16 50 12 1 0
3 Landscapes 4 8 54 11 2
4 Historic sites and artefacts 1 0 8 66 4
5 Other 3 0 2 1 73
Under the category of ‘other’ (see Table 4.2), respondents mentioned elements of Antarctica, such as wilderness (n=2), the value of peace and science (n=1) and the ATS itself (n=1) as worthy of
protection.
In other analysis, Antarctica’s environment and dependent and associated ecosystems were perceived by most respondents (n=79) as being either, well protected (49%) or very well protected (39%) through the Protocol; only a small minority (11%) observed the protection of Antarctica’s
environment to be poor. Bivariate descriptive statistical analyses were carried out finding no significant differences between Antarctic interest groups, years of experience on Antarctic matters, age range or gender of respondents’ profiles in terms of their perception of how well Antarctica is currently protected through the Protocol. However it is noteworthy that no government affiliated respondent (n=9) reported Antarctica as being poorly protected and that all respondents affiliated to
the fishing industry rated Antarctica’s environment to be very well protected (n=6).
Although the stakeholders surveyed perceived Antarctica as having a good level of protection, the significance of a range of conservation challenges facing the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continent were also recognised. Climate change, ocean acidification and fishing were ranked by most
Fr
equ
encies
Table 4.3 Respondents' rankings of the most important conservation challenge facing Antarctica today (n=78) Ranking # Antarctic conservation challenges 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Climate change 42 19 5 4 1 1 2 2 2 0 2 Ocean acidification 8 23 9 8 14 4 4 4 4 0 3 Fishing 11 8 26 15 6 10 1 1 0 0
4 Invasive alien species 5 11 11 14 12 8 9 3 3 2
5 Whaling 0 4 6 8 15 14 14 10 6 1
6 Pollution 0 3 8 9 10 19 16 9 3 1
7 Government support 4 5 6 5 4 5 16 19 14 0
8 Tourism 3 0 2 10 11 10 12 16 14 0
9 Impacts from science and logistics
3 4 4 5 5 7 4 13 32 1
10 Other(s) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 73
When asked whether Antarctica’s current conservation challenges will remain the same in 2048
when the Protocol may be reviewed, just over half (51%) of respondents (n=83) believed the challenges will change by then. Further analyses using cross-tabulations revealed an even split of
opinions on the topic within respondents’ Antarctic interest group affiliations, gender, age and years
of experience in Antarctic matters. No clear correlation was apparent within these dimensions of
respondents’ profiles and respondents’ views on Antarctic conservation challenges remaining unchanged by the year 2048.
Although climate change and its auxiliary effects were noted as a continuing challenge in Antarctica’s
future, respondents also demonstrated concern over the impact on the environment from increasing human presence in Antarctica and the potential increase in pressure to extract natural resources including minerals, oil, water and fauna. As a visual illustration of respondents’ views on the
perceived Antarctic conservation challenges for the future, a word cloud was generated (see Figure 4.1). The cloud was created in a world cloud generating website11 using the frequencies associated
with respondents’ answers to their opinions expressed on an open-ended question in the survey about Antarctica’s conservation challenges for the year 2048. The size of the words displayed is
relative to their in-text frequency; hence words respondents used numerous times, such as
‘exploitation’ are highlighted and displayed in larger font size than those mentioned fewer times in
11 Tagxedo.com
respondents’ answers12. From this word cloud (Figure 4.2), it is clear that respondents’ main
concerns for the future of Antarctica relate to climate change, exploitation of natural resources, the Southern Ocean and the tourism industry.
Figure 4.2 Word cloud illustrating relative frequencies of perceived challenges in Antarctica in 2048
4.2.1
The Ross Sea Region
In addition to questions about Antarctica, respondents were asked to consider the particular conservation circumstances of the Ross Sea Region. In this present study, the Ross Sea Region of Antarctica refers to the Ross Dependency, New Zealand’s claim on Antarctica, which includes the Ross Ice Self, the Balleny Islands, Scott Island and adjacent islands (New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade, 2014).
As was the case with respondents’ views on Antarctica, climate change, ocean acidification, fishing, invasive alien species and whaling were ranked as the top 5 challenges facing the Ross Sea Region today. Similarly, respondents’ (n=92) perceptions were divided over how these challenges might change by 2048 when the Protocol may be reviewed. Approximately half (46%) of those surveyed claimed that the conservation challenges will remain the same, while the other half (48%) claimed they will change (n=6 did not comment). Differences remained divided between Antarctic interest groups, and other dimensions of their profiles in terms of the Ross Sea Region’s conservation
12Please note that hyphens were used to gather words used jointly such as climate change (climate-change) to ensure these were displayed as one by the world cloud generating website used.
challenges remaining unchanged by the year 2048. The only demographic factor displaying a
different pattern was years of experience in Antarctic matters. Respondents with five or fewer years of experience in Antarctic matters appeared more likely than those with more than five years of experience to believe that the conservation challenges facing the Ross Sea Region today will change by the year 2048 (61% and 45% respectively).
Respondents who mentioned that conservation challenges in the Ross Sea Region will change by the year 2048 were asked to provide their thoughts on what the main conservation challenge for the
area will be in the future. To illustrate respondents’ views, a word cloud (see Figure 4.3) was generated where it can be observed that respondents’ concerns for the future conservation of the
Ross Sea Region were similar to those of Antarctica (see Figure 4.2) with climate change, natural resource extraction and tourism, being of main concern for the area’s future.
Figure 4.3 Word cloud illustrating relative frequencies of perceived challenges in the Ross Sea Region in 2048
On a scale (where 0 = ‘substantially worse than in 1998’ and 100 = ‘substantially better than in
1998’), respondents were asked to rate the overall condition of the Ross Sea Region’s natural
environment to what it was when the Protocol came into force in 1998. Respondents (n=60)
(M=50.15, SD=20.96). However when asked about their expectations on the future condition of the
Ross Sea Region’s natural environment most respondents (n=75) expect it to either remain unchanged (51%) or to decline (47%) by the time the Protocol could be reviewed in 2048. Only a small minority (2%) expect it to improve. A cross tabulation analysis, revealed that perceptions about the future condition of the Ross Sea Region’s natural environmentmight be related to respondents’
age. Most (75%) respondents aged between 31 and 40 years were negative about the expected
future condition of the Ross Sea Region’s natural environment. By contrast, most respondents aged
above 41 (54% in the 41-60 year old range and 56% in the 60+ age group) expected the Region’s environment to remain unchanged. The only respondents’ (n=2) who expect the Ross Sea Region’s
environment to be better in the year 2048, were respondents in the 41 to 60 years of age range. Though these patterns are worth noting, the results did not allow prof of a statistical significance due to the small sample sizes. Following respondents’ neutral views towards the future condition of Ross
Sea natural environment, respondents (n=82) reported similar findings about the future conservation of the region. Forty-six percent of respondents felt neither optimistic nor pessimistic about the future conservation of the Ross Sea Region.