Chapter introduction 139

Three previous chapters (Chapters 1, 2 and 3) have respectively defined research objectives, developed a methodological approach for the scoped risk management study, and identified/analysed the legislation for downstream operation (including transportation of products by road) in Nigeria. In Chapter 4, a risk management framework for pipeline operation was designed and proposed. As noted in Chapter 1, the two systems of transportation of products in Nigeria are pipeline and road trucking. These systems are interconnected and function as multi-nodal transport systems within the downstream structure of the petroleum industry. Like the pipeline system in Nigeria, transportation of petroleum products by road trucks also creates numerous opportunities for hazardous materials to be accidentally released. Depending on the volume upon LOC, chemical properties, sensitivity of host environment and proximity of human presence, such releases have consequences to human safety and the environment. This is especially a problem were roads often pass through populated areas (Fabiano et al., 2002; Anifowose

et al., 2011). In this chapter, the data collected (with respect to truck operations) from the

methods discussed in Chapter 2 was analysed using a tailored risk assessment model. This chapter is aimed at developing a risk management framework for road-truck system of

transportation and distribution of petroleum products. The identified legislations in

Chapter 3 grounds the risk management initiatives designed, whilst also integrating stakeholder inputs. Ultimately, this chapter sets out to:

 Define the risks associated with distribution of petroleum products by road.  Identify the factors contributing to accident frequencies and consequences.  Propose risk management initiatives and also identify the stakeholders

responsible for the risks.

This chapter is based on two published papers under the following titles:

Ambituuni, A., Amezaga, J.M., Werner, D. (2015). "Risk assessment of petroleum product transportation by road: A framework for regulatory improvement." Safety

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Ambituuni, A., Amezaga, J. M., Werner, D. (2015). "Risk management framework for safe transportation of petroleum products in Nigeria: Learning from past accidents and good practices." Risk Management 17(4): 329-351.

5.1.1 Setting the context

As seen in Chapter 3, petroleum product trucking operation in Nigeria is overlaid by complexity of multiple players, multiple regulators, product with varying volatility, multiple hazards and multiple transport routes. Based on the findings of Chapter 3, the current regulation of trucking downstream operations (including trucking petroleum products) is fragmented and lacking in effectiveness. This is evident in the number of petrol tanker related accidents (Dare et al, 2009 and Ambituuni et al, 2015) recorded in Nigeria. This, therefore, calls for a comprehensive risk management approach so as to better enhance regulatory programs and also to assist individual companies in developing tailored approaches to achieve cost-effective risk reduction beyond the regulations. This is particularly needed due to the highly articulated, small, but politically sensitive nature of operators (Ehinomen and Adeleke, 2012; Majekodunmi, 2013) and rampant incidents of accidents (SAVAN, 2002). This context, therefore, typifies a case for development of an innovative risk management approach as trucking operations as this transport system accounts for approximately 95% of the country’s petroleum product transport volume moving on the road system (Anifowose et al., 2011; FRSC, 2011). This is the reason why this chapter sets out to assess the risks involved in petroleum road trucking and develop pragmatic mitigation strategies based on regulatory requirement and stakeholder interests.

5.1.2 Risk assessment models applicable to trucking of petroleum products

It is worth stating that road trucking of hazardous material (hazmat) have received considerable research attention in the last 20 years (Yang et al., 2010). Various research (Verter and Kara, 2001; Fabiano et al., 2002; Fabiano et al., 2005; Gheorghe, 2006; Lieggio Junior, 2008; Centrone, 2009; Guo and Verma, 2010; Tomasoni et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2010) have focused on managing, preventing and reducing the impact of accidents involving truck tankers carrying hazmats (including petroleum products). Within this research, three approaches can be distinguished.

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 First, is the development of frameworks for improving emergency responses in specific countries based on road factors, metrological factors and traffic factors e.g. Fabiano et al. (2005).

 Second, is the trend of conducting survey and accident risk analysis based on historic data to divulge accident characteristics (Oggero et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010).

 Lastly, is the development of decision making frameworks aimed at improving choice of truck capacity (Guo and Verma, 2010) and route selection (Verter and Kara, 2001; Fabiano et al., 2002; Volkovas et al., 2005; Lieggio Junior, 2008) This research is discussed below, with the aim of identifying elements that can be used to develop a tailored risk assessment model that will suite the data collected.

5.1.2.1 Frameworks for improving emergency response

Fabiano et al. (2005) defined the risks of dangerous good transport by presenting a site- oriented framework for risk assessment and developing a theoretical approach for emergency planning and optimisation. Their research obtained data on a pilot highway and developed a database to allow a realistic evaluation of the accident frequency on a given route using multivariate statistical analysis. Consideration was given to inherent factors (such as: tunnels, bend radii, height gradient, slope etc), meteorological factors, and traffic factors (traffic frequency of tank truck, dangerous good truck etc.) suitable to modify the standard national accident frequency. Based on this, an approach was developed to identify optimal consistency and localisation in the pilot area of prompt action emergency vehicles.

5.1.2.2 Data driven risk assessment

In Oggero et al. (2006), Theodore (1991) and Yang et al. (2010), survey and accident risk assessment were conducted based on historic data to reveal accident characteristics. For instance, a study of 1932 accidents that occurred during the transport of hazardous substances by road and rail from the beginning of the 20th century to July 2004 was carried out by Oggero et al. (2006). Their research gave a statistical profile of accident frequencies, consequence senarios and causal factors and risk characterisation aimed at enhancing development of effective risk mitigation strategies.

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Similarly, using the problem and regulatory instance of New York City, the impact of container and route choice was assessment by Theodore (1991) in risk factor analysis. According to Theodore, condition release and accident probabilities must be calculated so that expected outcomes can be determined. This study focused on the use of two different containers, two routes (one considered typical and the other considered the most hazardous) and two risk scenarios (average and worst case). The scenarios were then analysed to determine the risk of a release, a release that leads to fire and an explosion. Fatalities were then estimated based on the expected accident scenario outcomes. Yang el al. on the other hand studied 322 accidents that occurred during the road transport of hazardous materials (hazmat) in China from 2000 to 2008 to identify accident frequencies, accident hot spots, the most frequent types of accident and the causes and consequences of the accidents. They concluded by making arguments on the need to improve certain safety measures in the road transport of hazmat in China.

These research shows that it is possible to use historic data to develop a risk profile based on accident occurrence frequencies, fatalities and other consequence. This profile can then be used in making risk management decisions.

5.1.2.3 Decision making frameworks

Some truck-tanker risk assessment research focus on the development of decision making frameworks aimed at improving choice of truck capacity (Guo and Verma, 2010), and route selection (Verter and Kara, 2001; Fabiano et al., 2002; Volkovas et al., 2005; Lieggio Junior, 2008).

Guo and Verma (2010) formulated a mathematical model for risk minimisation in transportation of flammable materials by reducing vehicle capacity. Guo and Verma also considered impact radius in hazardous material accident for TNT equivalent law which was defined as the weight of a standard explosive (TNT) required to produce a shock wave parameter of equal magnitude to that produced by a unit weight of the explosive in question. This was then considered as a factor in choosing the capacity and volume of flammables and explosive materials in truck tanker transportation.

In order to develop risk based knowledge on transport routs, Verter and Kara (2001) on the other hand developed a risk mathematical model for petrol transportation where they presume a set of route of petrol transportation R = <r1, r2,…,rn> and a set of parameters

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common to these routes P = <p1, p2,…,pn>. Each route was further divided into segments

S = <s1, s2,…,sm> and each i route was composed out of particular set of segments ri =

<si

1, si2,…,sik>. Also, the tank trucks technical state of T = <t1, t2,…,tl> was established. From a statistical view point, risk analysis of the entire route was then obtained by assessing the risks on each segment that made the route. This implies that risk assessment of whole route equals the sum of risk assessment of separate segments in the route. Similarly, in the quest to achieve safer transportation of hazmats Fabiano et al. (2002) asserted that because hazardous materials transport by road is often more dangerous as roads tend to travel through higher populated areas, data should be collected to describe the population on potential transport routes. Fabiano et al then created a model to analyse the impact of route choice in various populations. In their research instance, a route can be determined to have a small, yet vulnerable population. This could influence transportation planners and policy makers to avoid this smaller population and steer hazardous materials towards a larger population with a greater chance of survival. Many of these decisions are entirely subjective and political, but the model offers an objective look at the potential impacts of various route choices.

A weighted risk analysis methodology was proposed by Suddle (2009) in order to balance safety measures with aspects, such as environmental, quality, and economical aspects. His research provides a theoretical background regarding the scope of safety assessment in relation to the decision-making in complex urban development projects adjacent to or above transport routes of hazardous materials in the Netherlands. Suddle expanded on the quantitative risk assessment framework that the Dutch regulation requires to assess the safety of projects to allow other aspects of risk in the decision making process. The cost of risk was also factored in the consequence model. Based on this, the author asserts that the monetary value per considered loss can be found through research; hence, varying the values given for each considered loss in the weight can have a strong impact on the final weighted risk value and, thus, over the total decision-making process.

From all the truck tanker risk assessment approaches discussed in 5.1.2.1, 5.1.3.1 and 5.1.3.1, two aspects can be observed:

1. Risk assessment of road trucks has to be contextual, i.e., risk assessment is not generic and risk assessment result from a particular case cannot be used on another

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case by default. Data and circumstantial information needs to be collected to a defined the problem instance.

2. Risk assessment needs to integrate the regulatory requirement of the case country. This is even more important if the framework goes beyond proposition of mathematical methodology to developing risk management initiatives.

Notably of all the research reviewed, there was no research conducted within the problem instance of Nigeria. The only research identified was the explanation of the reason for a fire outbreaks during fuel truck accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria by Dare et al. (2009). Although the study gave some likely explanation to accident occurrence such as the operators' carelessness, driver age and poor quality of truck construction, the research was not developed in the context of risk management and, therefore, offers no structured approach to accident prevention and response.