Cohort differences in absolute mobility

Three cohorts have been created by birth year, the surveyed population in the ESS being divided into respondents born 1927–1945 (the ‘silent generation’), those born 1946–1964 (the ‘baby boomers’) and those born 1965–1975 (‘Generation X’). The ‘silent generation’ is a relatively small cohort: birth rates were low during the economic and financial crisis of the 1920s and 1930s and the war years. Those born in this period could

pursue their careers amid the opportunities of the post- war expansion. ‘Baby boomers’ were the large cohort born and raised during the affluent decades

immediately following the Second World War, when birth rates were high. These individuals were especially well placed to avail of the long post-war economic expansion. Finally, Generation X, the generation following the baby boomers, is the first generation that could not necessarily assume that their lives would be more affluent than their parent’s generation. The cohorts grew up in very different eras and in distinct socioeconomic contexts. Within the cohorts, they share common cultural identities: hence, they constitute a group, rather than simply a collection of unconnected individuals born around the same time (see also Elwood, 2008; Strauss and Howe, 1991). If the absolute mobility of these three cohorts is compared, it can be seen that mobility patterns have changed from one cohort to the next – not, however, in the same way for women as for men (Table 6). It can be seen in a pooled sample from all 24 countries and all selected ESS waves that downward mobility has slightly increased from the silent generation to Generation X: the cohort born before 1946 shows 35% downward mobility as against 37% for the cohort born after 1965, an increase of two percentage points.5_{The share of}

respondents who inherited the status of their parents (‘immobile’ in Table 6) has not changed at all from

5 The breakdown by countries is available in Table A3 in Annex 4.

Table 6: Absolute mobility statistics by cohort and sex (24 EU Member States)

Note: This table is an illustration of a breakdown by cohorts and sex using a pooled sample (that is, for all countries but unweighted by population size; see explanation in Annex). Data representative of each individual country are provided in Annex 4.

Based on the size of samples and the total population of cohorts, and a confidence level of 95%, the margin of error for the figures in the table ranges from 0.68 to 1.6 percentage points. For example, for both sexes the downward mobility of the baby-boomer generation is around 35%; a margin of error for the estimate of 35% at the 95% confidence level is +/-0.48 percentage points. In other words, the true value is between 34.52 and 35.48%. Most differences seen in the table are around or bigger than 2 percentage points and are therefore significant. Conversely, differences below 1.6 percentage points may not be significant.

Source: ESS, waves 1–5, 2002–2010; authors’ own calculations.

24 EU countries N Downwardly mobile (%) Immobile (%) Upwardly mobile (%)

Total 1927–1945 38,103 35.0 21.9 43.1 1946–1964 82,198 35.1 20.8 44.1 1965–1975 33,331 37.3 22.2 40.5 Men 1927–1945 19,024 32.0 22.3 45.7 1946–1964 39,260 34.4 22.6 43.0 1965–1975 15,560 37.3 24.2 38.5 Women 1927–1945 19,079 37.9 21.5 40.5 1946–1964 42,938 35.8 19.2 45.0 1965–1975 17,771 37.3 20.5 42.3

Social mobility in the EU

cohort to cohort. If upward mobility across cohorts is now considered, it can be seen that the share of upwardly mobile respondents increased between the two first cohorts but decreased somewhat for the last. Looking at the same data for men and women

separately, a slightly different picture emerges. While the share of men who experience downward mobility over the cohorts has increased significantly, the same indicator has not changed at all for women. The share of those who are stable in each cohort has not changed for the total population, as shown above, but the directions of motion are opposite for men and women: while the share of men who are immobile has increased by around 1% between the first and latest cohorts, the share of immobile women has decreased by about the same extent. Thus, the apparent lack of change in the aggregate table actually masks a slightly opposite movement for men and women. This becomes even clearer when the patterns of upward mobility for men and women are considered separately. From the oldest to the youngest cohort, men show a significant decrease

in upward mobility: almost 46% were upwardly mobile among the silent generation, as against 38% for Generation X. In the aggregate statistic, this is partly hidden by the fact that for women, there was an increase of around two percentage points in the share of upwardly mobile respondents between the cohorts. The data indicate how different mobility patterns have evolved for women and for men. Women have become more upwardly mobile while men are more likely to be downwardly mobile. However, the findings are different for each country (see Table A3 in Annex 4).

The data for Austria (reproduced here in Table 7) show an increase in both downward and upward mobility, while immobility has diminished throughout the cohorts. Looking at the Austrian data separately for men and women, the same pattern is evident as for the aggregate: women have a strong tendency to be more upwardly mobile and less downwardly mobile from one cohort to the next, while the opposite is true for men. And for men, the proportions who are stable (immobile) increase, while for women, the proportions decrease.

Table 7: Absolute mobility rates across cohorts – Austria and Bulgaria

Austria N Downwardly mobile (%) Immobile (%) Upwardly mobile (%)

Total 1927–1946 983 33.9 22.3 43.8 1946–1964 3,220 33.3 20.0 46.6 1965–1977 980 37.8 17.1 45.1 Men 1927–1946 512 27.0 23.4 49.6 1946–1964 1,482 30.4 22.5 47.1 1965–1977 384 34.6 24.0 41.4 Women 1927–1946 471 41.4 21.0 37.6 1946–1964 1,738 35.8 17.9 46.3 1965–1977 596 39.8 12.8 47.5

Bulgaria N Downwardly mobile (%) Immobile (%) Upwardly mobile (%)

Total 1927–1946 1,375 26.5 26.0 47.5 1946–1964 3,031 33.2 26.5 40.3 1965–1977 1,218 43.3 25.4 31.4 Men 1927–1946 577 22.4 26.9 50.8 1946–1964 1,308 34.6 26.8 38.6 1965–1977 5.5 40.2 28.1 31.7 Women 1927–1946 798 29.6 25.3 45.1 1946–1964 1,723 32.2 26.3 41.6 1965–1977 713 45.4 23.4 31.1

The data for Bulgaria, however, show that for both sexes, both downward mobility is increasing and upward mobility is decreasing. It appears that there is less upward mobility for everybody in Bulgaria across cohorts. Only immobility has slightly increased for men. Table 8 (based on the absolute mobility tables for all countries), shows that in most countries –18 – downward mobility for men increased over the three cohorts. Over the same period, upward mobility for men decreased in 15 countries. The direction of absolute mobility for women is the opposite: downward mobility increased for women in 6 countries, while it has decreased in 8 and stayed the same in 10. Meanwhile, upward mobility for women stayed the same in 10 countries, increased in 8 and decreased in 6. The picture for immobility also shows opposing tendencies: women

are less likely to inherit the status of their parents from cohort to cohort (to be immobile); however, men become more likely to do so. The picture is particularly clear in Greece, where downward mobility has stayed the same for men while declining for women, whereas women’s upward mobility has increased and men’s has decreased.

The countries at the top of the table are those in which absolute mobility is most polarised, cases of

upward/downward mobility for men and women being mostly different while immobility is declining or at most stable. At the bottom of the table are those countries where immobility is greatest. For example, in France, most indicators are stable, with the exception of downward mobility for men increasing and upward mobility declining. Overall, women are experiencing

Table 8: Change in absolute mobility patterns, by sex and cohort

Country

Downwardly mobile Immobile Upwardly mobile Extent of changes

Men Women Men Women Men Women – 0 +

Greece 0 – – – – + 4 1 1 Austria + – 0 – – + 3 1 2 Cyprus – – + – 0 + 3 1 2 Czech Republic + + – – – 0 3 1 2 Ireland + 0 – – – + 3 1 2 Bulgaria + + + – – – 3 0 3 Denmark + – + + – – 3 0 3 Spain + 0 – – 0 + 2 2 2 Finland – – + + 0 0 2 2 2 UK + + 0 0 – – 2 2 2 Croatia + – – + 0 0 2 2 2 Lithuania + + – 0 0 – 2 2 2 Belgium + + + – – 0 2 1 3 Netherlands + – + 0 – + 2 1 3 Poland – + + – 0 + 2 1 3 Sweden + 0 + + – – 2 1 3 Slovenia + – + + – 0 2 1 3 Estonia 0 0 0 + 0 – 1 4 1 France + 0 0 0 – 0 1 4 1 Luxembourg + 0 – 0 0 0 1 4 1 Portugal 0 0 0 – 0 + 1 4 1 Slovakia + 0 0 0 – 0 1 4 1 Germany + 0 0 – 0 1 3 2 Hungary + 0 0 – 0 1 3 2

–

Note: 0 means no change occurred, – means a decrease, and + means an increase of the share of those who were downwardly mobile, immobile or upwardly mobile. The extent of change is a simple count of those.

Social mobility in the EU

successive mobility gains across cohorts in most countries while men are more likely to experience downward mobility than previous generations.