Yield and land productivity show the biggest differences between Satha and the representative households On the SWC field this can be attributed to the high labor
5.6 COMPARISON AND SELECTION OF POTENTIAL SWC INNOVATIONS The information generated thus far is sufficient for a farm income analysis to evaluate the
performance of the cropping year 1990/91. Extending the period under investigation over a longer period and including the off-farm income determines the farmers' liquidity situation (fund flow analysis). Assum ing no changes the farm as well as non-farm income will remain unchanged during the near future. In this case, the cash surplus per RCU after fulfilling rice needs would be 2,599 baht for rich households and 1,461 baht for poor households (see Table 5.7, row 8).
The situation in the farming sector may, however, deteriorate due to soil depletion. Various authors have stressed this fact for traditional cropping in the highlands (Hetzel, 1991, Attaviroj, 1986 and 1990, Hoey et al., 1987), though the effects of continuous cropping of the same site are frequently, at least in the short-term, less clear as research results obtained on experim ental plots indicate (DLD, 1991, Anecksam phant et al.,
1991). The villagers themselves view the problem of declining yields quite differently and generally attribute declining yields to weed infestations. In the long-term, however, the results of continuous cropping are declining crop yields and decreasing returns from crop production. This result is affected by the length of cultivation which is in. turn related
to the availability o f suitable farming land, by the inherent physical and chemical characteristic of the soils, the current farming practices and soil disturbances.
Quite distinct from other parts of Upper Northern Thailand such as Phrae or Chiang Rai Provinces, the study area is still heavily forested. The presence of the TG-HDP and threats by government officials that further encroachment would not be tolerated has led in some o f the villages such as Luk Khao Lam and Pang Kam Noi to attempts to lengthen cropping periods or to restrict crop cultivation to old fallow fields. While there is no evidence for a clear link between this behavior and crop yields the available data reveal that in these two communities yields are lower than in the two communities where villagers still follow the traditional shifting of their fields to primary forests such as Pha Mon and Huia Hea (see Section 4.5). As long as this is still possible drastic yield declines cannot be expected. It could even be argued that with the scaling down of the TG-HDP activities, villagers will feel less reluctant to clear primary forest. This response may not lead to visible yield declines at all or declines will be rather marginal.
Table 5.11 Cash surplus levels per RCU (in baht) corresponding to yield declines of 2 and 5 per cent over fifteen years.
rich households poor households Satha
year yield yield yield yield yield yield
decline 2 % decline 5% decline 2 % decline 5% decline 2 % decline 5%
1 2,599 2,599 1,461 1,461 4,360 4,360 2 2,575 2,538 1,438 1,404 3,109 3,057 3 2,552 2,484 1,416 1,350 3,075 2,973 4 2,530 2,432 1,394 1,299 3,142 2,990 5 2,508 2,381 1,373 1,250 3,436 3,260 6 2,486 2,334 1,352 1,205 3,604 3,403 7 2,465 2,280 1,332 1,160 3,849 3,610 8 2,444 2,224 1,312 1,119 3,553 3,278 9 2,424 2,171 1,292 1,080 1,950 1,661 10 2,404 2,121 1,272 1,043 1,928 1,607 11 2,384 2,074 1,253 1,007 1,982 1,628 12 2,365 2,028 1,235 973 2,636 2,250 13 2,347 1,986 1,217 940 3,115 2,698 14 2,328 1,945 1,199 910 3,345 2,898 15 2,307 1,907 1,182 881 3,075 2,599
Note: For two reasons, the cash surplus generated by Satha is not declining constanly as is the case for the other household categories. First, it increases during the years when Satha's peach trees are producing. Second, the general decreasing trend is due to increasing rice demands with Satha's children becoming older. The sharp drop in year nine occurs because the peach trees have stopped producing.
The figures in Table 5.11 show the capital resources available per RCU after fulfilling rice needs for poor and rich households and Satha under the assumption that yields will decline annually by 2 and 5 per cent respectively during the next 15 years. While even a 5 per cent drop in yields appears to be only a marginal decline it means that yields are effectively halved after about 15 years. The table shows, that poor households are already below the estimated requirement of 2,100 baht/RCU. Yield declines and no responses to these changes deteriorate their situation considerably over the years. Cash surplus levels drop also for the better-off households but only under the 5 per cent yield decline scenario do they fall below the 2,100 baht/RCU.
Some villagers have already reacted to anticipated changes. In particular, better-off households have increased the area under wet rice cultivation though not all villagers have made use of their wet rice fields yet. Villagers are also experimenting with new cash crops and as the example of Pha Charoen shows cash crops may gain in significance if land availability becomes more restrictive. Off-farm employment was assumed to be stable in the calculations for Table 5.11. While the sale of forest products may decline even further some households may benefit from tourism either by offering their services as porters as is the case in Pha Mon or by offering accommodation. It is even more difficult to predict the future of opium cultivation. As with forest encroachment many villagers appear to have produced opium on a smaller scale or even abstained from poppy cultivation. As some villagers indicated, this will change at least in the medium-term because their economic situation had deteriorated too much. In this sense, the results presented in Table 5.11 are misleading because they are made assuming that the villagers are unresponsive to changes and opportunities. However, the table contains useful baseline information against which capital resources changes due to the adoption of innovations can be assessed (compare with Tables 5.23 and 5.24; Appendix 4).
The previous discussion on the characteristics o f innovations revealed that the farmers' felt needs must be considered in introducing new technologies. In particular, poor households are in need of additional income in the short-term as well as in the long-term. Innovations will have to address this issue in order to be acceptable. The farmers must be able to see the relative advantage of any potential innovation in terms of its economic returns. In short, it must be more profitable to produce than the currently known alternatives. It should furthermore be of little complexity and easy to adopt. It should also be compatible with their experiences and ideally an innovation should be divisible to allow for experiments on a small scale.
Villagers in the study area have shown that they are responsive to profitable innovations. Their responses to the introduction of sesame, red kidney bean, green bean and barley
were discussed in detail in section 4.6.2. Intervention in highland agriculture from the governm ent's point of view is, however, not based on the profitability of new technologies but on criteria regarding the conservation of environmental resources. As the analysis in Chapter Four has shown, the SWC technology was not designed in response to the villagers needs and its adoption has stalled. It did not offer any relative advantage over traditional practices though the provision of fertilizers and cash was welcomed by some farmers. Section 5.9 looks more closely at some of the environmental on-site effects of SWC technologies. The following discussion concentrates on the opportunities and constraints of alternative SWC technologies and the villagers preferences.
The reduction of land degradation can basically be approached in two ways. In the first one which has been described, buffer strips are established along contours. This technology does not lead to a drastic change in farming patterns. The cultivation of traditional crops can be maintained and new crops can be introduced whenever desirable. Buffer strips stabilize the soil and reduce soil erosion considerably in the second year (see section 5.9) but do not produce tangible benefits to the farmers. Leucaena and pigeon pea produce some fodder but it is doubtful that farmers will make use of cuttings. Cattle graze predominantly on native pastures and are not fed supplementary feed or minerals. Many farmers assessed the grass strips as unacceptable but reported their interest in leucaena and pigeon pea but they view it only as a superior alternative to the grass strips, not as a desirable and beneficial technology in itself.
The second group of potential technologies which reduce land degradation is comprised o f land use practices which provide a continuous soil cover on a piece of land. Technologies in this category include enrichm ent fallows, silvipastoral systems, woodlots predominantly for the production of tree products such as firewood or timber, and orchards predominantly for the production of fruits. Listed as different options, the technologies do not necessarily serve different purposes. For example, silvipastoral systems can include the cultivation of fruit trees and enrichment fallows can produce firewood and poles. Like the hedgerows consisting of leucaena and pigeon pea or any other tree species these technologies fall into the broad category of agroforestry. They can be more forestry oriented, where woodlots are involved or become a horticultural technology if devised to produce predominantly fruits.
The resource base of the study area differs significantly from those areas in which agroforestry systems have been recommended to supplement subsistence production. The most obvious difference is that in the study area subsistence needs such as fuelwood or local construction material are readily met by the abundance of forests and grazing areas
in the vicinity of the communities. This fact limits options for the prom otion of subsistence-driven agroforestry technologies.
More promising and preferred by the villagers are income generating technologies. In the study area, market-driven agroforestry technologies which focus on the production of marketable tree and agricultural products have substantially more scope than subsistence- driven technologies. However, the marketing of products which are also available in the natural forests increases the risk of illegal harvesting of natural forest species to increase the output of such products as small-size construction timber, charcoal or firewood. The feasibility of marketing these products is further constrained by the lack o f previous experience and that currently no legal basis exists for such enterprises.
Many villagers own some cattle and some villagers reported their interest in increasing their numbers. Typically the animals graze in the forests and on native pastures i.e. abandoned swiddens. Referring to the situation in the highlands, Lightfoot (1989) reported that cattle suffer from malnutrition because their diets are usually short in protein and energy. The main cause for the animals' low productivity is the low nutritional value of the main forage for the highland cattle. Pasture improvement with or without fodder producing perennials could improve productivity. While a change from extensive to intensive livestock management is a quite dramatic step both conceptually and financially the biggest constraint is the high risk o f disease epidem ics. Veterinary services are insufficient in remote areas and as long as this situation cannot be improved intensified livestock management is unrealistic. As Satha's case indicates, another problem is also cattle theft.
The most promising technology appears to be the production of fruits. As reported in section 5.2, about half the villagers interviewed indicated their interest in new cash crops. Fruits were preferred over annual crops. In response to a direct question about their attitudes towards perennials about 90 per cent of the villagers said they would like to grow fruit trees. They did not foresee any land or labor restrictions and named improved peach varieties as the most favored species.
Fruits are grown extensively for sale through Northern Thailand and have a long history in some locations (Sittitrai, 1988). The most common fruits produced in the lowlands are longan (
Dimocarpus long an),
litchi(Lite hi sitchensis
) and mango(Mangifera indica).
Despite almost 20 years of research in species and varieties suited for cultivation in the highlands, there is still relatively little extension to farmers (Bourne and Wood, 1991). Species which have been extended to the highlands include Japanese apricot