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Moreover, while quantitative research with large-N analyses has given strengths to generalizability and identification of general patterns of correlation, it does not capture contextual details and thus lacks nuance and specificity. This refers particularly to within-country variations where the indicators used in this thesis e.g. the QoG indicators; do not capture variations in communities’
coping capacities in relation to natural disasters for instance.
8. Conclusion and Implications for Future Research
This thesis has attempted to analyze the issue of the impacts of natural disasters on the level of human trafficking outflows. The research field on this nexus has mainly been dominated by qualitative studies, which are largely based on case studies on specific time and disaster occurrences. This strand of literature has however contributed greatly to the understanding of the relationship between natural disasters and human trafficking. They have provided with important mechanisms through which disasters indirectly impact trafficking flows (Dutta, 2017; Boria, 2016;
Jasparro & Taylor, 2008) where trafficking is often exacerbated in the aftermath of disasters (Carletti, 2017; Finn, 2016; Boria, 2016; Norlha, 2015; Gupta & Agrawal, 2010). Nevertheless, another group of authors claims that the increase of trafficking in the aftermath of disasters is more a myth than a reality (Gozdziak & Walter, 2014; Montgomery, 2011). These inconsistent results from the two strands of literature can be due to the lack of empirical data on human trafficking, which has been one of the main limitations when attempting to investigate this issue.
However, this is also the reason for the lack of quantitative studies regarding this relationship.
However, while another group of scholars have highlighted the importance of state characteristics in the trafficking literature for instance law enforcement (Akee et al. 2014; Cho et al. 2014; Frank & Simmons, 2013), and corruption (Jonsson, 2018; Cho, 2015a; Cho et al. 2014;
Studnicka, 2010; Van Dijk & Mierlo, 2010; Shelley, 2010), they have overlooked the concept of QoG. Thus, this thesis contributes to the debate on this nexus by addressing the role of Quality of Government in the wake of natural disasters. The concept of QoG refers to “trustworthy, reliable, impartial, uncorrupted, and competent government institutions” (Teorell et al. 2017). In this thesis, I used the concept interchangeably with ‘state capacity’ and ‘administrative capacity’, and focus on the quality of government’s performance in relation to the nexus. By developing a theoretical framework based on existing literature of human trafficking, and insights from QoG by providing two real world cases, this thesis attempted to answer the research question on whether QoG mitigates the relationship between natural disasters and human trafficking.
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Therefore, based on the theory, I proposed that human trafficking flourishes in the wake of natural disasters when there is lack of QoG15. Additionally, the theory expects that higher levels of QoG are associated with a lower level of trafficking outflows in the aftermath of disasters by reducing people’s vulnerabilities to trafficking.
Due to the complexity of measuring state’s capacity or administrative capacity, I considered four different key aspects of quality of government in order to capture different dimensions of QoG:
ICRG Quality of Government, Government Effectiveness, Rule of Law, and Political Corruption Index. While Tabellini (2008) has argued that it makes sense to discuss quality of government as a general feature, and the high correlation with one another, the indicators are comparatively different in their nature. To test the constructed hypotheses, this thesis employed the quantitative method of Ordinary Least-Squares (OLS) when conducting cross-sectional analysis across the world. Since my dependent variable was limited to a time period of 1996-2003, I averaged all my other variables in this dataset for a five-years period, which runs from 1996-2000.
My findings of my multiple regressions (OLS) in Table 1 revealed that countries that are more exposed to natural disasters experience an increase in human trafficking outflows, which further gave support for my first hypothesis. With regard to the included explanatory variables, it corroborates largely with the developed theory. Moreover, when including the QoG indicators in Table 2 separately in the main relationship, it showed that a country’s level of state capacity plays a key role in relation to human trafficking outflows, given the significant relationship at .01-level through all models. However, when including the interaction terms of QoG in Table 3 as well as with the explanatory variables and region effects, it showed no moderating effect on the relationship between natural disasters and human trafficking. This further implied that the effect on natural disasters on trafficking outflows was not conditional on the level of QoG in a given country. As a result, I had to reject my second hypothesis.
Nevertheless, the results of this thesis have shown that there is an existing relationship between natural disasters and human trafficking. Despite no moderating effect was to be found in my results, it indicates that both natural disasters and state’s capacity are independently and significantly correlated with trafficking outflows. With regard to current issues of global warming and climate change, the results of this thesis contribute to important policy recommendation in relation to the disaster-trafficking nexus. Most importantly, human trafficking outflows are
15 This thesis has used the concepts of QoG interchangeably by the standard definition of state capacity or administrative capacity.
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estimated to increase along the risks of climate-induced disasters. With experts estimating that the accelerated rate of climate change will contribute to more severe and frequent climate-related disasters in the near future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2017), this nexus contributes to major challenges. Climate-induced disasters have resulted to unprecedented impacts on people’s livelihoods and contributed to massive displacement around the world. With increased vulnerability, human trafficking is often the hidden consequence that needs to address in disaster relief efforts. Therefore, as natural disaster is rarely considered as a contribution to trafficking in persons (UNOCHA, 2017) thesis stresses the importance to acknowledge that trafficking in human beings can be unintended but direct outcome of disaster-induced displacement and migration.
Additionally, this thesis could assist policy-making, activists and practitioners in the field of disasters-trafficking nexus. For policy recommendation, it is crucial to focus on improving the socioeconomic conditions for the survivors in the aftermath of disasters, as it possibly reduce their vulnerabilities and motivation to migrate. Policy makers should address and focus on a more efficiently resource allocation as well as include counter-human trafficking interventions in disaster-relief efforts, which may reduce the risks for disaster survivors becoming exploited by traffickers Furthermore, education and information programs regarding the risks of trafficking should be assured and prioritized, in particular disaster prone areas.
With regard to the impacts of institutional quality on human trafficking outflows, this thesis cannot generalize the effects of the results given that the research design of this study did not account for within-country variations. For instance, the QoG indicators used in this thesis cannot address differences within countries such as federal or unitary systems, which may have different impacts in disaster response. Such study is particularly important when assessing variations within countries in relation to vulnerability to natural disasters and human trafficking. This could however be a suggestion to improve this study or emphasized for future research. Moreover, future research could also focus on assessments of disaster relief efforts following a disaster. This would be necessary as it would provide non-governmental organization and aid workers with improved information regarding how to better combat increases in trafficking of human beings in the aftermath of disasters.
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