where v (i,j) is the weight given to the j th control site matched to the sites that
(WITHOUT PROPERTY VALUES) (WITH PROPERTY VALUES) Coefficient Z-value Coefficient Z-value
6.7 CONCLUSION
T
he aim of this paper was to investigate whether regeneration policies that involve physical improvements of rundown industrial sites are successful in achieving their primary goals. Towards this aim we have studied a large number of master plans for regeneration initiatives to identify the goals and rationale underlying these policies. This investigation has revealed that the policy officials responsible for physical regeneration consider it primarily as a means to promote local economic development. As such, their expectations about what investments in physical improvement are supposed to do and what results can be expected to follow, are quite similar to those held by policy makers in the UK (Rhodes et al., 2005; Tyler et al., 2010) and the US (Byrne, 2010).We have identified outcome measures that are in line with the most- commonly articulated economic development goals so as to be able to empirically test the effectiveness of physical regeneration using propensity score matching. The results of the analysis indicate that regeneration had a negligible impact on growth in employment, firm numbers, property values and the intensity in which land on the sites is used. In fact, the only notable, but ambiguous, effects of regeneration concerned the sector composition on sites. These zero-impact results withstand a number of sensitivity analyses (e.g. using different matching procedures, distinguishing between different types of measures, introducing time effects). They are also consistent with a previous study at the more aggregated municipal level by Marlet and Van Woerkens (2010) that finds that municipalities that have implemented physical regeneration projects on industrial sites are not experiencing higher employment growth.
This paper contributes to the existing evaluation literature by demonstrating that physical regeneration policies are failing to bring about their desired effects. We already noted that the evidence base on the impact of physical improvements is constrained, which makes it hard to provide comparisons with other countries. This particularly pertains to economic outcomes like firm and job creation as several studies have assessed the impact of physical improvements on residential and commercial property values.69 In one of the few attempts in this direction, Byrne (2010) reports that
the improvements associated with TIFs have no general impact on employment at the municipal level in the US, but that municipalities that have adopted specific TIFs for industrial development do experience a positive effect on
69 These studies provide mixed evidence on the effectiveness of physical regeneration (see e.g. Dye & Merriman, 2000; Laverne & Winson-Geideman, 2003; Weber et al., 2003; Wachter et al., 2007; Tyler et al., 2010).
6 EVALUATING URBAN REGENERATION
overall employment growth. The author therefore concludes that the ability of the physical improvements associated with TIFs to deliver on the promise of more jobs ‘may be overstated’ (Byrne, 2010, p. 21). Neumark and Kolko (2010) find that the physical projects undertaken in redevelopment areas in California do not have positive effects on employment and firm numbers. It should be noted, however, that the primary objective of their research was not to provide a reliable estimate of the impact of these measures, but to assess whether enterprise zones have different effects when they are combined with other area- based policies. For the UK, Gibbons, Overman, and Sarvimäki (2010) evaluate the effects of public investments aimed at the provision and improvement of business floor space. Their findings indicate that these initiatives funded as part of the Single Regeneration Budget programme had no effects on job growth.
A number of possible explanations why no impact of regeneration is found in this study can be identified. A first explanation might be related to the fact that the number of observed industrial sites on which regeneration projects are fully implemented is relatively small. Secondly, we have restricted our measurements of impact primarily to economic development outcomes, although our study of master plans has indicated that regeneration also serves broader goals like environmental improvement. These latter outcomes might be positively affected by regeneration. A third explanation is that regeneration policies were poorly implemented. We already indicated that regeneration activity may be driven by political opportunities as much as by the perceived problems at the site. In that respect, the Nicis Institute (2009) reports that many municipal officials consider securing grants, whenever possible from various sources, as their main business. A fourth explanation might be that the assumptions underlying regeneration policies are faulty. In particular, this may hold for the assumption that improving location factors will result in firm and employment growth. Several studies have previously shown that firms’ decisions to relocate are mainly determined by firm internal factors and to a lesser extent by site-related factors (see e.g. Van Dijk & Pellenbarg, 2000). To answer the question which of the two explanations is most appropriate the findings from the statistical analysis should be complemented by interrogations and observations of the firms located on sites that are subjected to regeneration as well as the policy officials responsible for regeneration.
These conclusions are not necessarily generalisable to regeneration initiatives aimed at physical improvements elsewhere. In the Netherlands interventions are often undertaken at an early stage when the process of decay and decline has just set in. Contrary to the practice in other countries (i.e. US, UK), less needy places are subjected to regeneration as evidenced by the fact
that most sites are still in use when these initiatives commence. This can be partially related to the Dutch planning culture, which has been characterised as having high ambitions for the quality of the environment, combined with a fair degree of government intervention in order to realise these ambitions (Needham, 2007; Buitelaar & Sorel, 2010). In addition, we already pointed out that political motives might have driven the decision to regenerate an industrial site. Political impetuses may have hindered effective implementation, but they will almost certainly play a role in the adoption of regeneration strategies in other countries as well. Indeed, political factors have been shown to influence the targeting of regeneration initiatives in the US and elsewhere in Europe (Greenbaum & Bondonio, 2004; Byrne, 2005).