Conclusions

It is no surprise to find that, in common with most macro-level evaluations of other aid programmes,

8

As defined in the database - Annex 6.

9

In May 1997, a total of 389 British companies were registered with the British Embassy in Russia. This is only an indication of the total number of British companies with permanent offices in Russia.

this evaluation is able neither to quantify impact nor categorise it neatly. However, what this chapter demonstrates is that positive impact is being achieved at various levels, albeit in varying degrees.

At sectoral level, Tacis impact can be demonstrated in some cases, especially where Tacis has supported the introduction of new concepts. In both the public and the private sector, the introduction of new methods and abilities for meeting new market demand for private and public sector services has proved successful.

The Evaluation Team cannot, on the basis of the work done in this evaluation, draw authoritative conclusions concerning the global impact of the Tacis programme in terms of its contribution to the content and pace of market economy-oriented reforms and support to democracy in the NIS and Mongolia. The programme is still too young, and is on-going, thus preventing a full-scale ex-post evaluation. Moreover, and this is a more basic problem, it is widely recognized that a valid assessment methodology for measuring the impact of know-how transfer programmes does not yet exist.

Attitude change: One main strength of Tacis lies in its people-to-people approach. Tens of thousands of NIS managers, experts, administrators (and some politicians) have met their EU counterparts. They work together on NIS problems that have arisen in the wake of the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Especially, they anticipate they restructuring demands which the transition to new market-oriented forms make on NIS public and private organizations as well as on individuals in top, middle and lower management levels. This common effort gives a wider view, leading to a better understanding of the problems, and facilitating the ways to find appropriate solutions to new demands.

Policy change: Throughout the NIS, Tacis was, for a number of sectors, the first major donor to address policy change issues. In 1991-1992 Tacis had a degree of influence. TIE interviews in 1997 with senior government officials and policy makers confirm that, without Tacis support, the development of policy-making and implementation would have developed more slowly in a number of key sectors, including new legislation; deregulation of the markets, privitisation instruments, enterprise restructuring methodologies, trade and customs and nuclear safety. In recent years, Tacis impact on actual policy-change decision-making and on budget allocations for implementation has been less successful than anticipated and targeted. The explanation may be sought in the virtual absence of a sustained high-level policy dialogue between the Commission and the NIS Governments, and, generally, the limited access of project staff and

project policy documents to high-level decision- makers.

Institution-building: The large majority of projects (87%) have been well targeted at the needs of the selected POs and/or beneficiaries. The data indicate that in 75% of the Tacis portfolio, NIS staff capabilities increased and the POs developed new capacity for dealing with problems addressed. It can be expected that this will have a positive impact on the future economic performance of the partners. Tacis impact in this field was greatest when it targeted the needs of new private and public sector institution and the new capabilities needed by existing institutions in areas such as migration policy, customs, taxation, small and medium size enterprise centres, commercial and central banking and employment services. In the field of restructuring of existing organizations, the resistance to change has so far limited Tacis’impact.

Training: The evidence shows that training can be considered the most important and most appreciated form of assistance. The impact from the range of training activities is large. Management training is found to be one of the more successful tools for policy support. Tacis contributed to the emergence of public and some viable private sector training centres and the experience with workshops and study tours proved highly valuable in supporting the attitude change processes. The impact on education policies, however, cannot be assessed yet. Concrete results were also achieved in training of trainers, and curricula development.

Democracy, civil society, welfare and environment: The evaluators consider that the content of the Tacis programme has so far not reflected the fact that reinforcing democracy is one of the two Tacis programme objectives and does not present an adequate response to the practical importance of Third Pillar issues of the Maastricht Treaty (Justice and Home Affairs) in the EU/NIS relationship. A comprehensive policy

for dealing with democratic issues is conspicuously absent. Nevertheless, the evaluation shows that the impact of Tacis on democracy in the NIS extends beyond the impact of the relatively few projects started up under the Tacis democracy programme. The evaluators conclude that in most sectors, Tacis projects contribute to attitude changes to institutional capacity developments which have a positive democracy-reinforcing significance.

On welfare issues, Tacis was one of the first donors dealing with the provision of services through NGOs, the transfer of social security responsibilities from the privatised industries back to the public sector and the social consequences of sector and enterprise restructuring. Tacis impact in promoting environmental awareness in its project partners is found to be virtually non- existent.

Side-effects: Tacis has lowered the threshold for EU business and consultancy companies to set up offices in the NIS, and has provided a substantial incentive for the development of domestic consultancy capacity in the NIS. In addition, a rough estimate indicates that some 40% of overall Tacis finance are spent directly on NIS goods and services. The other 60% consist mainly of the fees for EU experts who provide their services in and for the benefit of the partner states.

The evaluators conclude that Tacis is more than the sum of its project results. On the basis of the available monitoring evidence, the workshops and the interviews, it can be concluded that Tacis has had an impact on a number of change processes which are important for the further evolution of the market economy anddemocracy in the NIS and Mongolia.

Chapter 8

Project Cycle Management and Tacis