Conclusions

3.5

phase out process. The analysis of exit processes showed that a number of important factors that determine success can be distinguished.

The cases studied clearly reveal the asymmetry of power in aid exit situations for aid-dependent countries. The main response of recipients was one of accepting the decision as a fait accompli.

2. Limited attention for exit planning

In the 14 exit processes studied only few elaborate exit plans were found, in the sense of a comprehensive document with a clear timeframe, guidelines on communication, indication on monitoring, step-by-step approach etc. ‘Natural phasing out’ was the most common model, which means that ongoing commitments are respected and activities are ‘faded out’ at the end of the contract period.

3. Critical factors of exit management

From the cases studied, it is not possible to draw a firm conclusion that there is a correlation between the length of phase out and its success – beyond the obvious observation that time is critical and overly short timeframes have led to problems. The case studies suggest that in aid- dependent countries more time is required than in graduated coun- tries.

Moreover, country exits demand time from already constrained aid coordination units on the recipient side, and there are weak incentives within such units to give priority to exits. This also applies to aid trans- formation agendas.

There is clear evidence that participation and involvement of the various groups of stakeholders, in particular on the recipient side, are key factors in a successful exit.

Respect for ongoing commitments is a common feature in most exit processes studied. In force majeure situations this is not always the case. There is a need to distinguish between cancellation of legal agreements and withdrawal from commitments made in the planning process. Al- though both actions are legally impeccable they clearly affect the re- cipient side negatively (e.g. the Danish exit from Malawi) when the exit process is short. In general, respect for ongoing agreements is an impor- tant factor determining success, especially in aid-dependent countries. This includes, as well, that attention is paid to commitments made in planning processes, even if not yet legally enshrined.

It was also found that flexibility to adapt the budget is another im- portant factor in good exit management. This implies going beyond the ‘natural phase out’ approach to identify needs for adjustments in cur- rent agreements.

Institutional capacity on the recipient side is also a key factor determin- ing success. This posed challenges to both sides. Donors sometimes tended to underestimate the capacities of the recipient, and in most cases did not carry out institutional assessments to identify any needs for capacity building to cope with the exit. On the side of the recipients, it was found in several cases that institutions underestimated or did not prioritise the need for good leadership in the management of exit proc- esses.

The dependency on technical assistance varied greatly among re- cipient countries, but a general finding is that special attention should be given to this component of development partnerships in exit man- agement. Furthermore, technical assistance played a vital role in strengthening institutional capacity and preparation for handing over in some successful exits.

The evaluation identifies donor capacity as a weak point in many exit processes and points to the critical role of the Embassy. A formal exit decision was often accompanied by pressure to reduce staffing at or even close embassies. Where this happened, the exit process was greatly frustrated. Even where the Embassy was not closed, there was a reduc- tion in capacity relevant to exit management – i.e. staff with develop- ment experience was transferred (expatriates) or laid off (local staff). The simultaneous phasing in and phasing out in aid transformation cases created specific management challenges, especially at the level of embassies, that were often not given due attention.

4. Critical factors of aid transformation

In graduating countries, where aid transformation is on the agenda, the concept of broader or broad-based cooperation as used by Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands is not always well defined. Objectives are not clear. Moreover, the concept does not clearly indicate whether tra- ditional forms of development cooperation can be part of this new ap- proach. Instruments for broader cooperation are not well defined. 5. Positive and negative consequences of exits

Of the six exits of which the consequences were studied in detail, two exits caused substantial negative consequences. Both exits took place in poor aid-dependent countries (Danish exits from Eritrea and Malawi). Poor exit planning and management were evident factors influencing the negative outcome as planning was poor, exits were rushed, and no time was available for proper consultation and implementation.

Three of the four more successful exits took place in graduated countries and only one in a poor country. Good management of the Dutch exit from Malawi contributed to the success in terms of prepar-

ing recipient institutions for sustainable operation after the exit. The positive outcomes in graduated countries can only be partially attribut- ed to good exit management. Obviously, the country context and the capacity on the recipient side were key factors determining success. 6. Different types of exits lead to different outcomes

In summary, the case studies indicate that successful exits from force majeure type situations are extremely difficult to realise. Exits from aid- dependent countries may also be problematic, but may still be successful if the following conditions are met: a realistic timeframe, participation of stakeholders on the recipient side in planning and implementation, assessment of recipient capacity, flexibility to adjust existing agreements, and adequate skills and capacity on both sides to manage the process. The third type of exit process, the aid transformation situation, requires specific management skills in handling a combination of phasing in and phasing out. In Botswana the case study points to limited success, but for India and South Africa no clear assessment could be made, since the aid transformation processes in these countries are very much in progress.

Towards guidelines for aid

exit and transformation

Different guidelines for different processes

This chapter builds on the typologies presented in Chapters 1 and 2 and on the findings with respect to exit management and exit consequences presented in Chapter 3. The purpose is to distil lessons that provide pointers to donors considering formulating guidelines for exit manage- ment. Apparently, there is increased recognition that the issue of exit has been overshadowed for too long by the constant search for new en- try points for aid. Various factors have contributed to this, of which the quest for greater concentration of aid and division of labour among donors deserve to be mentioned.

Recommendation: need for country specific pre-exit

assessment

An important starting point for exit planning is a diagnosis of the coun- try context. Bilateral donors do this all time but with the lens mainly focusing on qualifications for receiving aid and attaining partner coun- try status. Turning the lens to aid exit and transformation, distinguish- ing between the following types of contexts, would be useful:

1. exit from countries graduating from, or not having, LDC status but remaining important bilateral partners for donor countries (e.g. South Africa, China, India);

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

2. exit from countries graduating from LDC status who are less impor- tant bilateral partners for donor countries (e.g. Botswana, countries in Latin America);

3. exit from poor aid-dependent countries with a relatively limited number of donors (e.g. Malawi, Niger);

4. exit from so-called ‘difficult partnerships’ – e.g. fragile countries and/or countries in conflict (e.g. Eritrea, Democratic Republic of Congo);

5. exit from poor aid-dependent countries with a large number of do- nors and established mechanisms for donor coordination (e.g. Mo- zambique, Tanzania).

Factors to consider in pre-exit assessment

Assessing the country context for exit management may include the fol- lowing elements:

What type of country is it (with reference to the categories above)? What type of exit management process is it (with reference to the three types: (i) exit from a force majeure situation, (ii) exit from a poor, aid-dependent country under conditions that allow for proper planning, and (iii) exit from a country no longer aid dependent in- volving a transition to broader non-ODA relations)?

What is the likely climate of cooperation during (and after) the phase out?

What are the main characteristics of the current country pro- gramme?

The purpose of this assessment is to sensitise decision makers to the specific ramifications of each aid relationship. Simple blue prints for exit management have to be avoided. As this evaluation shows, there is a tendency that changes in overall aid policies (e.g. aid concentration) translate into uniform approaches with little sensitivity to country con- texts. Furthermore, the climate for cooperation with development part- ner governments on exits differed considerably. A pre-exit assessment should try to gauge the likely response of key stakeholders in the part- nership.

Recommendation: Make exit management

guidelines sensitive to three types of exit processes

From the evaluation, one very important conclusion stands out: no two exits are similar and thus there cannot be one simplistic set of guidelines for all situations. Besides different contexts for exit management, as in- •

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4.3