CONCLUSIONS

Both surveys have shown that the main orientation of mobility, whether realised or potential, is highly oriented towards science, which indicates how intense the reforms and restructuring in this field of activity have been.

The relatively high emigration rate in the survey on real migration, which does not correlate with the very low potential, needs to be paid attention to. First, Estonia differs from other East European countries by the age composition of real emigration. The age structure of emigrants does not correspond to the demographic potential in these age groups. Although the emigration rate of the real migration survey is high, it had not resulted in a corresponding gap in the scientific personnel's age structure by 1995. It seems that the significantly different age structure of those who have emigrated from Estonia during the transition period compared to all other countries under investigation, especially regarding the main peak in the 30-34 age group, needs a more thorough study. The survey on potential migration provides some insight into the category of those who can be regarded as determined emigrants, but due to the very low potential, it does not offer a full answer. However, a general explanation might be, that no matter how high the proportion of those who have emigrated is, they add to the significant flow of temporary exits into the international scientific environment, thus in the end contributing to the new structures emerging in Estonia's science. The latter statement is based on the very high proportions of short-term (up to 6 months) emigrations, concerning fellowships abroad, in connection with joint research work or a part-time job. Those who presently have a valid working contract with their home institute, but are abroad, form almost two thirds of the emigration flow for that year, which shows the high rate of turnover of international contacts. The neighbourhood of Scandinavian countries and the highest intensity of contacts with these countries suggest that the emigration might be regarded as part of the brain exchange between these countries. As the real migration survey did not take into account the entry and re-entry into the scientific institutions during the investigated period, it is hard to evaluate how many of the so-called emigrants have in reality returned. The age structure of

research personnel in 1995 suggests that the reduction of the personnel is mainly due to the fact that young people do not enter this field of activity.

The trends in real migration indicate that science has lost a high proportion of older personnel, whether by retirement (not shown in the survey data) or emigration and internal migration. However, due to the advanced ageing process the research personnel in 1995 has still become older. Internal migration shows that those who have gone into other fields of activities than science, have been rather less qualified and rather older than the young non- experienced personnel. Since the proportion of women engaged in science in general is already low, real migration trends have not generated any gender disproportions.

The turnover of personnel inside science is insignificant according to the survey data. The data from the real migration survey prove the high competitiveness of the new scientific structures. The structure of the personnel who is emigrating or moving into new science structures is close to general population charateristics. However, the potential migration survey indicates, that despite the highly research-oriented personnel who has remained in science, scientist look for much more possibilities of going into non-research areas and private business than the data from the real migration survey would show.

The Estonian data mainly refer to basic state research institutes: main universities and academic institutions which account for more than 85 percent of the research personnel. Both data sets show that the restructuring process mainly concerned academic institutions: real migration has been higher, reduction of personnel towards more research-oriented activities more visible, international contacts more intensive. The process can be understood since academic institutes were more oriented to fundamental research during the Soviet period. The reform of the R&D system in Estonia first concentrated on academic institutions. As the result the academic institutes have clearly benefitted from that, their personnel being relatively younger and more qualified. However, the potential migration survey shows that personnel in universities is changing as well. However,

when looking at their international contacts, it becomes ovious that personnel in universities is much more oriented towards training than that of basic research institutes.

As a conclusion, the project showed that Estonia has a different position compared to other East European countries in many aspects. Belonging to the group of countries whose transition towards an open society has started relatively late, Estonia still belongs to the forerunners in the science reforming process and the rate of integrationinto the international research community has been very high. The effects of the transition period in general terms show the high speed and effectiveness of restructuring processes in the country. Estonian research personnel has become more homogeneous, determinantly research oriented and losses have contributed to form a better qualified and experienced personnel in science. In that sense the economic restraints of the period, which have been the highest compared to the other investigated countries, had a positive effect. Nevertheless, one of the main negative effects of the period has clearly been that no new young personnel came into science. If that trend is going to continue the positive sides might turn into a real problem. The balanced reproduction of human capital is a crucial point in the general development of a small country. The low potential of mobility is the result of the demographic development of the population. Ageing of the Estonian research community undoubtedly leads to further reduction in the number of scientsts. Estonia's task is to attract more young people into science, if the country wants to maintain the international competitiveness of its scientists.