MODULE FABRICATION This contract will be for the fabri-cation of the Apache Compres-sion module.
This contract is intended to be placed on a fixed price lump-sum basis, with the alternative option for a unit rate contract, depend-ing upon timdepend-ing for contract award.
The IFB-Package will be devel-oped by WorleyParsons as one of their deliverables.
The module fabrication contract shall be awarded 4 weeks prior to mobilisation of the fabrication contractor.
A further 6 weeks was allowed for mobilisation and site-preparations prior to commence-ment of the fabrication works.
CROC KEY MILESTONE DATES
The contracting strategy above has been developed to support the following key milestone dates:
PO Award Compressor/Turbine Package 17 Oct 2010
Start EPCM 2 Jan 2011
ETA Compressor/Turbine Package 14 Jan 2012
Module Load-out 10 Jun 2012
Module Installation 25 Jun 2012
Start Up 26 Aug 20124.6 CONTRACT 3 – TRANSPORT &
INSTALLATION A separate contract for the transport and installation of the compression module.
The contract would be a fixed price lump-sum with risk associ-ated with weather to be mutually agreed.
The IFB Package will be devel-oped by WorleyParsons as one of their deliverables.
The Transport & Installation con-tract shall be awarded early in the Execution-phase to lock-in the heavy lift vessel and to allow the installation contractor to have the necessary input into the de-sign.
4 weeks was allowed for mobili-sation prior to Module Load-out date.
4.7 CONTRACT 4 - BROWN FIELD MODIFICATIONS / TIE-INS / HUC
Contract for all offshore Module Installation Pre-works, Brown Field Modifications, Shutdown Tie-in works, and Hook-up &
Commissioning works.
The contract will be awarded on Cost+ reimbursable basis with an agreed budget-cap per work-package.
The IFB Package will be devel-oped by WorleyParsons contrac-tor as one of their deliverables.
The BF/HUC contract shall be awarded 4 weeks prior to mobili-sation of the BF/HUC contractor.
6 weeks was allowed for mobili-sation and site-preparations prior to commencement of the BF/
HUC works.
4.8 CONTRACT 5 - ACCOMMODATION VESSEL
A contract for the Accommoda-tion barge to be utilized for the Maintenance/Tie-in Shutdown through to Final Hand-over.
Contract will be based on Day-rates for bare vessel plus addi-tional charge per person.
The available barges will be re-viewed during the FEED, and award should be early in the EPCM to ensure availability.
4 weeks was allowed for mobili-sation prior to commencement of Maintenance/Tie-in Shutdown.
The initial task of a project con-trols planner is to identify what the key schedule drivers of the project are and use these to de-velop a schedule risk model which can be used as the basis for schedule risk analysis.
In other words, what aspects of the project will have the biggest impact on the overall success (or failure) of the project’s comple-tion.
Areas of the project that will need to be considered are:
Detail Engineering
Request For Quotation Deliv-erables to support Procure-ment Phase
Technical Evaluations to meet Major Equipment award dates
Technical Evaluations to meet Sub-Contract award dates
AFC Deliverables to support Fabrication PhaseProcurement
Request For Quotation to meet Major Equipment award dates
Expediting of Equipment deliv-ery to site
Expediting of Vendor Data to support Engineering AFC De-liverablesConstruction / Fabrication
Delivery Major Equipment and Bulk Material
Maximising of Onshore Pre-commissioning Works Transport & Installation
Availability of Heavy Lift Ves-sel
Load-Out Milestone Date
Hook-Up and Commissioning:
Identification and priority of Commissioning Systems handover
Expediting of Mechanical Completion datesIn a ‘live’ project environment, the key schedule drivers for each of the project’s stages will be determined by undertaking a group discussion with the follow-ing project participates (both from CROC and WorleyPar-sons):
Project Manager
Project Controls Manager and/or Project Planner
Engineering Manager
Procurement / Contracts Man-ager
Construction Manager
Commissioning ManagerBased upon these discussions, for which earlier risk manage-ment processes and steps have been used as inputs (i.e. risk register, risk ranking, etc.), the schedule risk model can be de-veloped
EXERCISE 1:
DEVELOP SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS MODEL
The exercise here is to develop the schedule risk-model in Pri-mavera Risk Analysis.
Preparatory Work
Once logged onto Primavera Risk Analysis, selection can be made as:
File / Open, if the project schedule from Module 2 has already been imported and saved as “.plan” in PRA for-mat schedule from Module 2., or
File / Primavera, with a cou-ple of key options: Open Pri-mavera Project (via link to P6 Database—admin only) or Open Primavera XER file.1. If Open Primavera import selection is made, then the first step will be the Schedule Validation, resulting in an Im-port Log and Schedule Check Report. Please review both log warnings and report.
2. Use Menu Item Plan / Plan Information / General tab to define plan titles and company details, and Dates tab to de-fine:
Start: 12-Sep-2010 (as per the EPC Project Schedule) Time Now (Data Date):
02-Jan-2011
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2
3. Use Menu Item Plan / Plan Options / Date tab to define date format and related preferences.
4. Use Menu Item Plan / Plan Options / Time tab to de-fine working time, as well as Plan / Calendars to define working week: Each week is 7 days (as with the EPC Schedule, the Schedule Risk Model will be using a 7 day calendar)
5. Once all the above steps are completed, please save the file as a Primavera Risk Analysis Plan:
File name: 042_TRN007_XX {Particpant’s initials}
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4
Schedule Risk Model - Layout and formatting
Prior to the Project Services En-gineer developing the Schedule Risk Model, certain formatting needs to be completed as de-scribed below:
6. Select Menu Item Format / Timescale to define how the timescale is to be displayed (please choose the Dates on-ly), timescale format and other available options.
7. Select Menu Item Format / Columns —the default col-umns on a left hand side of a bar chart are as shown in the Screenshot No. 7.
Menu Item Format offers a num-ber of additional formatting options, like Lines, Gantt Chart, Individual Task Styles, etc.
6
7
8. In order to develop a Sched-ule Risk Model containing the most relevant information, it is required to setup the Bar chart Columns with the fol-lowing fields, as a minimum.
Additional fields are recom-mended, like Risk Input—
Duration Function, Risk In-put—Duration Correlation, Risk Input—Probabilistic Branch, and so on...
Each column is selected from the Format / Columns lists (Grouped Fields or Alphabet-ic Fields) and placed prefera-bly on the right side of the bar chart..
The table above identifies the sequence and naming of some of the columns.
9. Select Menu Item Format / Bars and also Format / Gantt Chart and follow some of the basic instructions, as a
formatting options, i.e. modify as follows:
Float: Hide all float—this will hide float bars from on-screen displays and scheduleprint-outs, if preferred that way
Uncheck Show Task Down-time—Periods of inactivity will not be displayed on on-screen displays and schedule print-outsField Top
Heading
Bottom Heading
Text Alignment
Column Width Left Columns
1 Name Activity ID Left 8
2 Description Activity Description Left 45
3 Remaining Duration Rem. Duration Right 8
4 Early Start Early Start Centre 10
5 Early Finish Early Finish Centre 10
Right Columns
6 Risk input – Duration Minimum Minimum Duration Right 9
7 Risk input – Duration Most Likely Most Likely Right 6
8 Risk input – Duration Maximum Maximum Duration Right 9
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9
Once the Project Services Engi-neer has completed the format-ting of the Schedule Risk Model, the risk inputs layout may look like the one shown above.
The next step is to start populat-ing activities’ risk(s) data.
Schedule Risk Model - Popu-lating Activities
For training purposes, the partici-pant will determine a summary of Activities from the overall EPC Schedule that represent the key
schedule drivers for the project.
A suggested activity listing is shown on page 40.
With the exception of Activity IDs 1-17-GEN-13 (Start Milestone) and 6-05-PED-00 (Finish Mile-stone), all other Activities have a
“Normal” Activity Type (as indi-cated in the General tab of the Task Details window – please see page 41)
As indicated in Chapter 5, CROC has certain key Milestone Dates
that are required to be met.
Of this list, the following mile-stones were included as
“constraints” in the list of identi-fied schedule drivers.
Note 1: Activity ID 1-17-GEN-13
“Start EPCM” is constrained as a Must Start On date of 02/Jan/11 Note 2: Activity ID 6-05-PED-00
“ETA Compressor & Turbine Package” is constrained as a Must Start On date of 16/Oct/10
Predecessor
Activity Activity Rem. Early Early
ID Description Dur. Start Finish
(Days)
Activity Type Lag
ID
1-17-GEN-13 Start EPCM (Note 1) 0 02/Jan/11* n/a
1-03-EDA-00 Module Detailed Design 266 2-Jan-11 24-Sep-11 1-17-GEN-13 SS 1-03-EDB-00 Brown Field Mods Detailed Design 266.00 2-Jan-11 24-Sep-11 1-17-GEN-13 SS 6-05-PED-00 ETA Compressor & Turbine Package (Note 1) 456 16-Oct-10 14-Jan-12 n/a 6-05-PBA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Piping, E & I Bulks 281 9-Apr-11 14-Jan-12 1-17-GEN-13 SS 97 6-05-PSA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Primary Struct. Steel 294 28-Nov-10 17-Sep-11 n/a 6-05-PEA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Suction Scrubber 379 12-Feb-11 25-Feb-12 1-17-GEN-13 SS 41 2-17-MFD-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Module Fabrication 197 23-Jan-11 7-Aug-11 1-17-GEN-13 SS 21 3-17-IND-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Transport & Installation 345 5-Jun-11 14-May-12 1-17-GEN-13 SS 154 4-17-BFM-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – BF/Tie-Ins/HUC 197 13-Mar-11 25-Sep-11 1-17-GEN-13 SS 70 5-17-ACV-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Accommodation Vessel 239 24-Apr-11 18-Dec-11 1-17-GEN-13 SS 112 2-06-MFD-20 Pre-Fab / Erection Primary & Secondary Steel 217 18-Sep-11 21-Apr-12 3-17-MFD-00 FS
6-05-PSA-00 FS
2-06-MFD-28 Mechanical Equipment Installation 21 26-Feb-12 17-Mar-12 6-05-PEB-00 FS 0
2-06-MFD-24 Piping Pre-Fabrication / Erection 154 6-Nov-11 7-Apr-12 6-05-PBA-00 SS 211 2-06-MFD-30 Elect. / Inst. Equipment & Bulks Installation 112 1-Jan-12 21-Apr-12 2-06-MFD-20 FF
2-06-MFD-28 SS 14
2-07-MFD-20 Onshore Pre-Commissioning 105 13-Feb-12 27-May-12 2-06-MFD-30 FF
1-03-EDA-00 FS
1-03-EDB-00 FS
6-05-PBA-00 FS
6-05-PED-00 FS 29
2-08-MFD-22 Load Out & Sea fastening 14 28-May-12 10-Jun-12 2-07-MFD-20 FS
2-06-MFD-28 FS
2-06-MFD-24 FS
2-06-MFD-30 FS
4-06-BFM-20 Tie-In Pre-Works & Major Hot Works 84 6-Nov-11 28-Jan-12 6-05-PBA-00 SS 211
3-17-BFM-00 FS
3-17-ACV-00 FS -42
4-13-BFM-24 Module Pre-Works 140 29-Jan-12 10-Jun-12 4-06-BFM-20 FS 3-09-IND-20 Module Transportation and Installation 21 11-Jun-12 1-Jul-12 3-17-IND-00 FF
4-13-BFM-24 FS
4-15-HUC-20 HUC Compression Module / Start-Up Works 56 2-Jul-12 26-Aug-12 3-09-IND-20 FS 1-17-GEN-24 Start Up / Hand-Over (Note 1) 0 26-Aug-12 4-15-HUC-20 FS
2-08-MFD-22 FS
Similar to the functionality of Primavera P6, Primavera Risk Analysis is relatively straightfor-ward to populate with Activity Details:
10. Select Menu Item Insert / New Task, if a new task needs to be inserted.
With the Task Details General tab selected, enter in the data as follows:
Name: Activity ID from page 40 list of schedule drivers
Description: Activity Description from page 40 list
Remaining Duration: Remaining Duration from page 40 list.
Calendar: 7 Day
10
Tasks Details window is dis-played at the bottom section of the screen. I
f not, the Task Details can be viewed in two ways: A.– Menu Item View / Task Details toggle item, or B.– while on activity line, by right click and selection of Task Details.
11. With the Task Details Links tab selected, enter in the Pre-decessors data as follows:
Name: Activity ID from page 40 list (note, all “Driving” pre-decessors will be indicated in red)
Type: Relationship Type from table on page 40
Lag: Lag from page 40 list All Successor links will be popu-lated automatically for each ty based on it’s link to other Activi-ties
As with the EPC Schedule Devel-opment, whereby activity coding was used to organize and group the schedule activities, the sched-ule risk model activities may also be grouped.
Primavera Risk utilises Summary Activities for grouping purposes.
12 Add the following Summary Activities using the Menu Item Plan / Organize. No logic is applied to these Ac-tivities
13. Once these Summary Activi-ties have been added, in turn, select the Activities associated with each Summary Activity (see page 43) and click on the Demote button from the main toolbar (short-cut,
Ctrl+Alt+right arrow).
Select all Activities below Summary Activity GN000 –
“Tatanka Gas Develop-ment” and repeat the pro-cess.
Once the Project Services Engi-neer has populated the Schedule Risk Model with activity risks
input data and has added the Summary Activities, the Sched-ule Risk Model is ready for the risk ranging exercise to be con-ducted (see page 44).
Save the Schedule Risk Model
11
Activity ID
ActivityDescription
GN000 Tatanka Gas Development EP000 Procurement & Contracts EC000 Construction / Fabrication ET000 Transport & Installation / HUC
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Activity Activity Rem. Early Early
ID Description Dur. Start Finish
(Days)
GN000 Tatanka Gas Development 603 2-Jan-11 26-Aug-12
1-17-GEN-13 Start EPCM 0 02/Jan/11*
1-03-EDA-00 Module Detailed Design 266 2-Jan-11 24-Sep-11
1-03-EDB-00 Brown Field Mods Detailed Design 266 2-Jan-11 24-Sep-11 EP000 Procurement & Contracts 577 16-Oct-10 14-May-12 6-05-PED-00 ETA Compressor & Turbine Package 456 16-Oct-10 14-Jan-12 6-05-PBA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Piping, E & I Bulks 281 9-Apr-11 14-Jan-12 6-05-PSA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Primary Struct. Steel 294 28-Nov-10 17-Sep-11 6-05-PEA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Suction Scrubber 379 12-Feb-11 25-Feb-12 2-17-MFD-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Module Fabrication 197 23-Jan-11 7-Aug-11 3-17-IND-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Transport & Installation 345 5-Jun-11 14-May-12 4-17-BFM-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – BF/Tie-Ins/HUC 197 13-Mar-11 25-Sep-11 5-17-ACV-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Accommodation Vessel 239 24-Apr-11 18-Dec-11
EC000 Construction / Fabrication 267 18-Sep-11 10-Jun-12
2-06-MFD-20 Pre-Fab / Erection Primary & Secondary Steel 217 18-Sep-11 21-Apr-12 2-06-MFD-28 Mechanical Equipment Installation 21 26-Feb-12 17-Mar-12 2-06-MFD-24 Piping Pre-Fabrication / Erection 154 6-Nov-11 7-Apr-12 2-06-MFD-30 Elect. / Inst. Equipment & Bulks Installation 112 1-Jan-12 21-Apr-12 2-07-MFD-20 Onshore Pre-Commissioning 105 13-Feb-12 27-May-12 2-08-MFD-22 Load Out & Sea fastening 14 28-May-12 10-Jun-12 4-06-BFM-20 Tie-In Pre-Works & Major Hot Works 84 6-Nov-11 28-Jan-12
4-13-BFM-24 Module Pre-Works 134 29-Jan-12 10-Jun-12
ET000 Transport & Installation / HUC 77 11-Jun-12 26-Aug-12 3-09-IND-20 Module Transportation and Installation 21 11-Jun-12 1-Jul-12 4-15-HUC-20 HUC Compression Module / Start-Up Works 56 2-Jul-12 26-Aug-12 1-17-GEN-24 Start Up / Hand-Over (Note 1) 0 26-Aug-12
EXERCISE 2:
SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS PROCESS
Risk Ranging Workshop In a ‘live’ project environment, a formal schedule risk ranging Workshop will be conducted based on the model that has been developed.
The purpose of the workshop will be for the representatives from both CROC and WorleyParsons to discuss and collectively agree upon the appropriate level of risk associated with each of the iden-tified key schedule drivers.
Therefore it would be advisable to issue the Schedule Risk Model to the participants prior to the Workshop taking place in order for a review of the Model to be made.
Conducting the Risk Ranging Workshop
In order for the Workshop to be as constructive as possible, it is important that ‘appropriate’ par-ticipants are involved.
As with determining the key Schedule Drivers, representative from both from CROC and Wor-leyParsons will be involved:
Project Manager
Project Services Manager and/or Project Planning Engineer
Engineering Manager
Procurement / Contracts Man-ager
Construction Manager
Commissioning Manager In addition, a Risk Analysis Facil-itator (preferably not part of the Project Team) will guide the par-ticipants through the Workshopprocess to ensure focus is main-tained and the Workshop is con-ducted as effectively as possible.
It is also important to note that the abovementioned participants should have:
The authority to make key decisions and are able to ap-prove any required actions
Detailed knowledge and expe-rience of both the Technical and Commercial aspects of each phase of the Project
Knowledge of the specific approvals and permit require-ments of the authority where the Works are to be carried out, i.e. government, safety inspectors, etcApplying the Triangular Distri-bution
As described in Chapter 3, the principle of schedule risk ranging is to select a probability distribu-tion funcdistribu-tion (duradistribu-tion funcdistribu-tion) to each of the identified key schedule drivers activities, i.e Minimum (Optimistic), Most Like-ly (Realistic) and Maximum (Pessimistic) durations.
In order to make an objective evaluation of the distribution of the duration values, it is im-portant first to define what pro-ject risk actually is.
Chapter 5.0 of this module offers some key definitions of the risk management terms. Project risk can be defined as: “An uncer-tain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project’s objectives”.
Therefore factors that will need to be considered include:
Project Management:
Project Duration / Project Schedule
Scope Definition and Estimate
Project Organisational Model and ImplementationEngineering and Design:
Design Criteria / Quality
Technology to be utilised
Interface between Procure-ment and Construction Procurement and Contracts:
Market Conditions
Tender Evaluation and Pur-chase Order Cycle
Client Approval Cycles
Vendor Performance (especially in periods of high demand)
Manufacturing ProcessConstruction and Fabrication:
Geographical Location (and corresponding Weather Win-dow)
Site Safety / Access
Site Supervision and Labour skill level
Contractor Performance
Design Changes during Con-structionTransport and Installation:
Heavy Lift Vessel availability
Marine Spread(s)
Weather ConditionsActivity ID
Activity Description
Minimum Duration (Days)
Most Likely (Days)
Maximum Duration
(Days)
1-17-GEN-13 Start EPCM n/a n/a n/a
1-03-EDA-00 Module Detailed Design 252 266 280
6-05-PED-00 ETA Compressor & Turbine Package 442 456 477 6-05-PBA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Piping, E & I Bulks 274 281 309 6-05-PSA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Primary Struct. Steel 288 294 351 6-05-PEA-00 RFQ, TBE, PO, ETA Suction Scrubber 372 379 407 2-17-MFD-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Module Fabrication 183 197 330 3-17-IND-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Transport & Installation 337 345 379 4-17-BFM-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Brownfields/Tie-Ins/HUC 190 197 253 5-17-ACV-00 Contract Award / Mobilise – Accommodation Vessel 232 239 295 2-06-MFD-20 Pre-Fab / Erection Primary & Secondary Steel 210 217 238 2-06-MFD-28 Mechanical Equipment Installation 18 21 34 2-06-MFD-24 Piping Pre-Fabrication / Erection 147 154 175 2-06-MFD-30 Elect. / Inst. Equipment & Bulks Installation 105 112 126
2-07-MFD-20 Onshore Pre-Commissioning 98 105 112
2-08-MFD-22 Load Out & Seafastening 14 14 17
4-06-BFM-20 Tie-In Pre-Works & Major Hot Works 77 84 98
4-13-BFM-24 Module Pre-Works 126 134 154
3-09-IND-20 Module Transportation and Installation 21 21 28 4-15-HUC-20 HUC Compression Module / Start-Up Works 49 56 70
1-17-GEN-24 Start Up / Hand-Over n/a n/a n/a
1-03-EDB-00 Brown Field Mods Detail Design 234 266 280
Below is a step-by-step guide to populating the above distribution of values into the Schedule Risk Model:
1. Click anywhere on the activity line to display the Task Details window for that activity.
With the Risks, Duration tabs selected, enter in the data as follows:
Tick Risk On: this is to ensure that the Activity is included during the simulation
Distribution: Triangle (type of distribution that will be applied to the Activity)
Minimum: Minimum Duration from the above table
Most Likely: Most Likely Du-ration (i.e Remaining DuDu-ration) from the above table
Maximum: Maximum Duration from the above table
Notes: Because Activities 17-GEN-13 – “Start EPCM” and 1-17-GEN-24 “Start Up / Hand-Over” are Milestones (with zero durations), it is not possible to apply a Risk Range distribution to these Activities.
Similarly, it is not possible to apply a Risk Range distribution to the previously created Sum-mary Activities.
Once the Project Services Engi-neer has populated the Schedule Risk Model with the distribution of durations, the Model can be printed out:
2. Select Menu Item File / Page Setup from the main toolbar.
With the Page tab selected, use the Scaling option to fit one page.
Note: The Header and Footer of the Barchart can be formatted to suit reporting and presentation requirements.
Once the Schedule has been printed out and the ‘Monte Carlo’
Once the Schedule has been printed out and the ‘Monte Carlo’