Data consolidation in the dairy sector: the examples of

Italy and the Slovak Republic

It is often the case that national and ESTAT data, but also different ESTAT domains and sometimes even the numbers in a single market balance are not fully consistent with each other.

The CAPRI modelling database is established in a routine called Complete and Consistent Data Base (COCO) based on various types of official data (see Britz 2008, section 2.3). This routine allows for conversion of units, trend based completions, mechanical corrections of presumed data errors while imposing some minimal technical consistency in terms of adding up constraints for areas and so forth in two steps:

1. Include and combine input data according to some overlay hierarchy;

2. Calculate complete and consistent time series while remaining close to the raw data. The second step implies that the modelling database may deviate from raw data from ESTAT, sometimes in a non-negligible way, if the inconsistencies were significant. It should be acknowledged that these inconsistencies are not always visible in the original ESTAT tables because we are often collecting data from different tables and sometimes domains. The examples of Italy and the Slovak Republic are interesting because the CAPRI data shown in Table 39 deviate significantly from the DG AGRI data (close to ESTAT) on an important variable such as the number of dairy cows (cf. Table 50)

Table 50: Adjustments of raw data from ESTAT in the data consolidation procedure COCO in Italy, 1000 heads

Raw data Consolidated data

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

dairy cows 1988 2001 2063 2142 2156 2208

output coefficient male calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.59 0.64 0.64

output coefficient female calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.54 0.59 0.59

suckler cows 583 505 492 622 585 540

output coefficient male calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.56 0.61 0.64

output coefficient female calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.52 0.56 0.59

total supply calves 2313 2255 2299 3101 3328 3371

heifers slaughtered or net exported 522 489 556 519 495 538

heifers raised = cows slaughtered + stock change cows in t+1 519 344 558 518 489 484

sum heifers used 1041 833 1114 1036 984 1022

raising of female calves 833 1114 1023 984 1022 1062

bulls slaughtered or net exported 1404 2080 1996 1404 1613 1730

raising of male calves 2080 1996 1781 1613 1730 1724

total raising of calves 2913 3110 2804 2597 2752 2786

slaughtering of calves 1109 1104 1075 505 575 585

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On the supply side of calves the raw data include information on the herd size of dairy cows and suckler cows. The output coefficients of male and female calves are unobserved, but orders of magnitude are well known: an output coefficient of 0.45 per cow for calves of each sex acknowledges a small percentage of twins, a variable interruption between pregnancies as well as some moderate losses25_{. Multiplication} of output coefficients with numbers of cows gives an estimated supply of calves of about 2.3 million heads in 2001-2003. Of course the output coefficients need not be 0.45 exactly but an output coefficient of more than 0.65 or less than 0.3 will be considered very unusual.

Demand for calves is ultimately derived from slaughtering data (including net exports of live animals) of various animal categories as well as changes in the herd size of cows. In particular we may infer the number of heifers raised in a given year from the sum of slaughterings of cows and increase in the cow herd next year. In turn the heifers used next year must have been raised this year. This permits to infer the number of female calves needed for raising in this year. Raising of male calves in a given year equals next years

25 COCO recognises that the split is commonly estimated to be 51:49 in favour of males which is ignored in the example for simplicity.

slaughterings of male adult cattle (including net exports of live animals). The final component of demand for calves is for slaughtering for production of veal which is directly given in the raw data. Adding up all calves raised and slaughtered in a given year yields about 4 million heads in terms of demand for calves in Italy in recent years.

Hence there is a huge inconsistency of supply and demand of calves which needs to be closed in some fashion. The right part of the table shows that the main adjustment occurs through a significant increase in the output coefficients, up to the technical limits which is conceivable under fortunate circumstances (0.65). However, this adjustment is not sufficient to close the original gap such that some key numbers like the dairy cow herd size and total slaughterings have to be adjusted as well.

The situation is similar in the Slovak Republic but with a change in sign: The raw data imply a huge excess supply of calves which needs to be eliminated. Again the adjustment occurs mainly through an adjustment of output coefficients. If technical bounds against implausible coefficients

Table 51: Adjustments of raw data from ESTAT in the data consolidation procedure COCO in the Slovak Republic, 1000 heads

Raw data Consolidated data

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

dairy cows 247 239 234 188 197 180

output coefficient male calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.29 0.28 0.28

output coefficient female calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.29 0.28 0.28

suckler cows 26 29 30 0 0 11

output coefficient male calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.43

output coefficient female calves 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.43

total supply calves 245 241 238 108 111 111

heifers slaughtered or net exported 18 12 12 24 19 12

heifers raised = cows slaughtered + stock change cows in t+1 37 29 44 40 34 44

sum heifers used 56 41 56 64 53 56

raising of female calves 41 56 57 53 56 55

bulls slaughtered or net exported 49 44 39 56 48 47

raising of male calves 44 39 36 48 47 43

total raising of calves 85 95 93 101 102 98

slaughtering of calves 3 3 3 7 9 13

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