Variable Description mean # obs
[st.dev.] deportation rates
(convicts)
Annual inflow of deported persons from the US with a penal record,
per 100,000 of home country population. Two-year rolling means a) 5.70 897
[17.37]
deportation rates (non convicts)
Annual inflow of deported persons from the US without a penal record,
per 100,000 of home country population. Two-year rolling means a) 7.20 764
[30.32]
homicide rates (WHO)
Homicides per 100,000 persons, according to data of the World Health Organization, covering the years 1980 to 2015. Two-year rolling means
b)
7.21 464
[10.18]
homicide rates (UNODC)
Homicides per 100,000 persons, according to data of the United Nations Organization for Drugs and Crime (UNODC), covering the years 2013 to 2015. Two-year rolling means c)
8.73 614
[13.07]
civil war Binary indicator whether the country was in a civil war in the current
year d) 0.01 [0.09] 983
corruption A composite measure of corruption within the political system considered a threat to foreign investment by distorting the economic and financial environment, reducing the efficiency of government and business by enabling people to assume positions of power through patronage rather than ability, and introducing inherent instability into the political process. Ranges between 0 (most corrupt) and 6 (least corrupt) e)
2.59 821
[1.17]
exposure US crime
Average exposure of migrant population from country i to violent crime known to police, including murder & non-negligent manslaughter, legacy rape, revised rape, robbery, and aggravated assault at the level of US states. Average exposure is calculated from the distribution of the foreign born population across US states according to the 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) 2005 to 2009 h) i)
441.99 762
[51.72]
GDP growth Per capita annual GDP growth f)
4.39 891
[4.74]
GDP per capita Per capita GDP in constant 2010 USD (logs) f)
8.47 889
[1.45]
gini (market) Gini indicator based on market income g)
45.67 729
[6.21]
polity Regime type indicator, ranging from most authoritarian (-10) to most
democratic (+10) j) 4.38 765
[5.99]
remittances Migrants' remittances as share of GDP f)
4.92 823
[6.91]
schooling Average years of schooling of the adult population k)
8.30 709
[2.83]
share population < 14
Share of the population under the age of 14 f)
28.94 875
[10.90]
urban Share of the urban population. Yearly values interpolated from
quinquennial data. l) 57.73 1206
US arms imports Import of non-military arms from the US, as units per 100,000 of home
country population m) 44.59 571
[133.39]
population (log) Population size (logs) f)
15.93 908
[2.02]
secure communities (lagged)
Instrumental variable, weighting the foreign born population from country i that lived in US states that operated the program "Secure Communities". Secure Communities is a federal data-sharing program that ran from 2008 to 2014 and was reinstated in January 2017. State participation was initially voluntary but later became mandatory and was active in all states by 2012. Through Secure Communities, fingerprints submitted by local law enforcement agencies to the FBI are shared with immigration enforcement agencies for checks against immigration databases. Depending on the result, immigration officials decide whether to take enforcement action, like issuing a detainer request. Indicator is lagged by one year n) i)
0.31 766
[0.40]
e-verify (lagged) Instrumental variable, weighting the foreign born population from country i that lived in US states that operated the program "e-verify". E-verify is an electronic verification system that confirms the employment eligibility of workers. Most states with this mandate require either public employers and state contractors, or all employers with at least a certain number of employees, to use E-Verify. Takes the value 1 in states where employers are mandated to use E-Verify for some hires and takes the value 2 in states where E-Verify was mandated for all hires. Indicator is lagged by one year n) i)
0.09 766
[0.12]
prenatal care (lagged)
Instrumental variable, weighting the foreign born population from country i that lived in US states that provided prenatal care, regardless of a woman's residency status, through either a state-funded program or through a 2002 CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) option. Indicator lagged by one year n) i)
0.69 766
[0.14]
Mean values, standard deviations in brackets and the number of observations are provided for the two-year intervals between 2003 and 2015. Sources: a) US Department of Homeland Security. Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Various Years (URL: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook) b) World Health
Organization (WHO). Historical trend series data on deaths from road traffic accidents, suicide and homicide (URL: http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/surveillance/databases/mortality/en/) c) United Nations
Organization on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Data series on homicide and other criminal offences (URL:
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/statistics.html) d) Sarkees and Wayman (2010)e) International
Country Risk Guide. The PRS Group (URL: https://www.prsgroup.com/)f) World Development Indicators
Online Database g) Solt (2016) h) US Department of Justice-Federal Bureau of Investigation, via US Census Bureau (2017) i) American Community 5-Year Survey 2005 – 2009 j) Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR), Polity IV Project, Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2016 k) Barro and Lee (2001) l) United Nations Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects 2017 (URL:
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/) m) United Nations COMTRADE Database (URL: https://comtrade.un.org/data/) n)
Gelatt et al. (2018). Original sources for the three indicators on state-level migration policies are Medical Assistance Programs for Immigrants in Various States, National Immigration Law Center, Issues: Health Care, 2002, 2005–07, 2009–12, 2014–16, for health benefits; US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Library: Secure Communities Nationwide Interoperability Statistics (FY 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and YTD FY 2015) for Secure Communities; and National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Actions Regarding E-Verify" (Denver, CO: National Conference of State Legislatures, no date), for E-Verify.
Annex 2: Instrumented (2nd Step) Regression: Effect of US Deportations of Convicts on Origin Countries’ Homicide Rates (WHO data)
homicide rates (WHO)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
deportation rate (convicts) 0.096 0.16** 0.19** 0.16** 0.21***
[1.19] [2.17] [2.14] [2.26] [3.23]
deportation rate (non conv.) -0.0033
[-0.13] corruption 0.15 0.23 0.44 0.21 [0.3] [0.42] [0.39] [0.19] exposure US crime 0.019 0.029 -0.0068 0.024 [0.47] [0.74] [-0.16] [0.45] GDP growth 0.035 0.011 0.05 -0.013 [0.81] [0.22] [0.75] [-0.09] GDP per capita 3 6.1 5.6 14 [0.59] [1.15] [0.88] [1.42] gini (market) 0.17 0.2 0.23 0.26 [1.06] [1.26] [0.74] [0.47] polity -0.11 -0.13 -0.078 -0.44 [-0.81] [-0.84] [-0.56] [-1.21] population (log) 8.4 5.2 4.7 -14 [1.43] [0.91] [0.41] [-0.62] remittances 0.54* 0.66** 0.73** 0.98 [1.85] [2.09] [2.01] [1.57] schooling -0.76 -0.75 -1.6 -2.1* [-1.35] [-1.37] [-1.52] [-1.83] share population < 14 0.62 0.65 1 1.7* [0.94] [1.01] [1.19] [1.71] urban 0.58** 0.57** 1.3*** 1.1 [2.35] [2.38] [2.71] [1.35]
US arms imports 1.20E-04 2.60E-04 -0.022* -0.027
[0.35] [0.73] [-1.65] [-1.29]
sample full full full w/o OECD Lat. Am & Caribbean
country fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
year fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
R^2 0.02 0.2 0.2 0.27 0.33
weak instr. F-test 21.54 26.58 32.81 37.64 31.76
Wu Hausman 0.68 0.29 0.03 0.1 0.07
Sargan 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93
#obs 515 347 322 169 112
periods (max) 7 7 7 7 7
countries 90 65 65 37 22
Heteroscedasticity robust t-values in parenthesis. All results are based on 2SLS regressions with country and year fixed effects for 2-year intervals. Stars denote significance at the 10% (*), 5% (**) and 1% (***) level.
Annex 3: Instrumented (2nd Step) Regression: Effect of US Deportations of Convicts on Origin Countries’ Homicide Rates (UNOC data, yearly intervals)
homicide rate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) deportation rate (convicts) 0.23*** 0.23* 0.28* 0.23** 0.32***
[2.59] [1.8] [1.82] [1.97] [2.91]
deportation rate (non conv.) -0.072
[-1.35] civil war (=1) -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 [-1.47] [-1.16] [-1.03] corruption -0.24 -0.16 -0.54 -0.14 [-0.43] [-0.27] [-0.47] [-0.07] exposure US crime -0.033 -0.018 -0.07* -0.14** [-1.13] [-0.59] [-1.69] [-2.21] GDP growth -0.058 -0.042 -0.11 -0.31 [-1.43] [-1.17] [-1.54] [-1.65] GDP per capita 4.2 3.7 6.9 20 [1.01] [0.92] [1.07] [1.16] gini (market) 0.26 0.17 0.46 1.2* [1.22] [0.89] [1.25] [1.83] polity -0.075 -0.1 -0.0075 -0.29 [-0.49] [-0.74] [-0.05] [-0.83] population (log) 13 14** 20** 55 [1.65] [2.18] [2.08] [0.83] remittances -0.32 0.016 -0.34 -1.3 [-0.65] [0.07] [-0.64] [-1.4] schooling -0.53 -0.6 -1.2** -1.3** [-1.35] [-1.61] [-1.95] [-2.04] share population < 14 1.2* 1.1* 1.5 6.5*** [1.72] [1.67] [1.62] [3.29] urban 0.16 0.22 0.17 -0.18 [0.65] [0.89] [0.36] [-0.29]
US arms imports -3.80E-05 2.70E-04 -2.10E-04 -1.30E-03
[-0.09] [0.84] [-0.02] [-0.09]
sample full full full w/o OECD Lat. Am & Caribbean
country fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
year fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
R^2 0.15 0.25 0.29 0.31 0.47
weak instr. F-test 44.23 40.28 29.51 26.67 26.67
Wu Hausman 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.13 0.13
Sargan 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
#obs 1096 653 617 363 170
periods (max) 12 11 11 11 11
countries 113 79 79 51 21
Heteroscedasticity robust t-values in parenthesis. All results are based on 2SLS regressions with country and year fixed effects for 1-year intervals. Stars denote significance at the 10% (*), 5% (**) and 1% (***) level.
Annex 4: Instrumented (2nd Step) Regression: Effect of US Deportations of Convicts on Origin Countries’ Homicide Rates (UNOC data, 3-year intervals)
homicide rate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) deportation rate (convicts) 0.26*** 0.14 0.1 0.15 0.23***
[3.04] [1.41] [0.98] [1.45] [4.1]
deportation rate (non conv.) -0.079*
[-1.85] civil war (=1) -4.5 -4.2 -3.7 [-1.64] [-1.52] [-1.2] corruption 0.57 0.92 0.24 0.033 [1.01] [1.24] [0.16] [0.01] exposure US crime -0.056 -0.039 -0.11* -0.28*** [-1.38] [-1.05] [-1.82] [-3.41] GDP growth -0.063 -0.075 -0.13 -0.63* [-1.06] [-1.03] [-1.09] [-1.7] GDP per capita -1.1 -2.5 -1.2 2.5 [-0.31] [-0.59] [-0.21] [0.17] gini (market) 0.38 0.38 0.55 1.5 [1.34] [1.26] [1.25] [1.5] polity -0.2 -0.16 -0.079 -0.62 [-0.78] [-0.6] [-0.25] [-1.24] population (log) 12 8.5 19 160 [1.03] [0.68] [1.08] [1.59] remittances -0.77 -1 -0.79 -5*** [-0.92] [-0.98] [-0.82] [-2.85] schooling -0.5 -0.51 -1.2 -2.1 [-0.84] [-0.81] [-0.89] [-1.19]
share population under 14 0.035 -0.33 0.47 9.7***
[0.05] [-0.38] [0.41] [3.27]
urban 0.47 0.44 0.84 -2.2**
[1.43] [1.3] [1.63] [-2.47]
US arms imports 0.0023 0.0021 0.012 0.041
[0.81] [0.7] [0.71] [1.23]
sample full full full w/o OECD Lat. Am & Caribbean
country fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
year fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes
R^2 0.16 0.34 0.38 0.38 0.73
weak instr. F-test 12.94 14.76 12.74 12.04 12.04
Wu Hausman 0.48 0.55 0.28 0.32 0.32
Sargan 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81
#obs 351 189 178 107 49
periods (max) 4 3 3 3 3
countries 113 72 72 44 18
Heteroscedasticity robust t-values in parenthesis. All results are based on 2SLS regressions with country and year fixed effects for 3-year intervals. Stars denote significance at the 10% (*), 5% (**) and 1% (***) level.
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