The Demand for Future Infrastructure

As Christchurch continues through the earthquake recovery phase, the city’s usually resident population is expected to not only recover, but grow (Statistics New Zealand, 2014b). With growth in population, comes greater pressure on the transport network to perform effectively and efficiently. Whilst there is certainly a global shift occurring towards the increased use of more sustainable modes of transport, Christchurch remains, on the whole, a very car-centric city. In order to ease the significant demand the road network is likely to be put under in the years to come, it is important that the city begins to implement measures that will encourage people to reconsider their travel behaviour.

Chapter 2 drew attention to the fact that one of the CCC’s main goals for the rebuild period, is to see Christchurch develop into a more cycle-friendly city, where utility cycling is not uncommon. It was also discussed that the Greater Christchurch development strategy acknowledges that the decisions people make about where they are going to live have much wider flow on effects, particularly in terms of the city’s transport requirements (Greater Christchurch UDS Partners, 2010). It has been recognised that as the city and the greater Christchurch area continue to grow, the areas where residential growth is focused are generally moving further towards the city fringe, and further away from key employment zones; as a result there is expected to be a 320 percent increase in traffic volumes by 2041 (Greater Christchurch UDS Partners, 2010). These amplified traffic volumes further reinforce the need to encourage the city’s population to reconsider the way in which they are travelling through providing attractive alternatives to private motor vehicles. Whilst the strategy

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acknowledges that where people choose to live will play a large role in the mode of transport they use for utility trips, it is also important that they are provided with transport choice and attractive alternatives to encourage a decrease in the use of private motor vehicles throughout the city. In 2006 research was undertaken assessing New Zealanders readiness to change when it came to increasing the number of utility trips made by walking or cycling. Whilst it was found that thirty seven percent of people would be prepared to replace trips made by motor vehicle with trips made by walking or cycling on two or more days each week, only eleven percent of respondents reported cycling regularly (once a week or more), while sixty nine percent of respondents had not cycled at all in the last three months (Sullivan & O’Fallon, 2006). Similarly, research undertaken for the Christchurch City Council in 2005 found that twenty seven percent of the city’s non cyclists were interested in taking up cycling (Opinions Market Research Ltd, 2005). Although these figures provide a very clear indication that people are interested in reconsidering the way in which they travel, the discrepancies between the figures above and the number of people actually utilising cycling as a mode of transport indicate that there is certainly some barriers preventing people from making the transition to more active modes of transport. The importance of the role perceived safety plays in utility cycling uptake has been discussed widely throughout this research, and when taking Sullivan and O’Fallon’s (2006) findings into consideration, it is certainly not unreasonable to argue that there is still a significant amount of demand in Christchurch for robust cycling infrastructure.

As aforementioned, the results to this point have drawn attention to the fact that there is a significant amount of room for improvement when considering how the major cycleways network could be further developed in the future; both in terms of improving the current proposed network, as well as the implementation of additional infrastructure to further extend the network. The population projections discussed in Chapter 8 made it very clear that a large amount of development is expected to occur throughout the city in the years to come, particularly in fringe areas on the western side of the city (Figures 7.2.2 and 7.2.3). As a result, when additional infrastructure is being considered or planned, these areas should be prioritised to ensure that the network is servicing areas throughout the city where a large number of people will be beginning their daily trip to work. It is important to note that as these areas are on the city fringe, an increase in the uptake of utility cycling is going to depend on how far a person will have to travel to reach their place of employment. Whilst cycling is certainly a viable alternative for trips between two and five kilometres (Smith et al., 2011), in the case of lengthier trips it is unlikely cycling will be the preferred option. Although the current demand for infrastructure in these areas may be limited, considering future

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transport needs throughout the city at present will contribute to a transport network that effective and robust in the years to come.

It has been noted a number of times already, when planning for future transport demand, it is critical that future transport patterns are considered. The derived trips results in Chapter 7.6 provided a summary of areas where there is expected to be a large number of trips passing through. Whilst it is important to provide infrastructure to areas where a large number of trips start and end, ensuring that there is infrastructure in areas people would normally travel is critical. As discussed previously, when choosing how to travel between an origin and destination, a mental trip cost calculation is made. Though safety certainly features heavily in the decision a person makes about how they will travel, so too does travel time and distance. As a result, if cycle infrastructure is provided to improve safety, but proximity, network cohesion and network directness requirements are not met, it is possible that the choice may still be made not to cycle. While it is always possible that in some cases these factors may not influence a person’s decisions to cycle, generally providing both safe and attractive infrastructure is likely to have positive effects on utility cycling uptake.