5. Consumption and supply in future
5.2 Development in consumption
Total Danish gas consumption, exclud- ing own consumption in the North Sea, is
expected to fall from the present level of approximately 3.5 billion Nm3/year to ap-
proximately 2.8 billion Nm3/year in 2020. The
volumes have been calculated using an upper calorific value of 12.1 kWh/Nm3. Projections
of natural gas consumption by current con- sumer segments have been prepared by the Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk and are described in the following. The projec- tions do not include gas for transport.
5.2.1 The Danish Energy
Agency’s projection
In April 2011, the Danish Energy Agency pre- pared new basic projections of Danish energy consumption. The purpose of the projec- tions is to assess how energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions will develop towards 2030 provided that new political decisions are not made. The projections are based on, amongst others, the Danish energy agreement of 21 February 2008.
In its basic projection of natural gas con- sumption, the Danish Energy Agency as- sumes that Danish consumption, excluding consumption related to offshore oil and gas extraction, will fall to 112 PJ/year in 2020 and 105 PJ/year in 2030. Using an upper calorific
Energinet.dk’s projection, May 2011 The Danish Energy Agency’s basic projection, April 2011
Figure 5‑6 The Danish Energy Agency’s and Energinet.dk’s projections of natural
gas consumption in the Danish exit zone. 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Billion Nm3/year
59
Gas in Denmark - Energinet.dkvalue of 12.1 kWh/Nm3 the consumption can
be translated to respectively 2.6 billion Nm3/
year in 2020 and 2.4 billion Nm3/year in 2030.
A slight increase in offshore natural gas consumption is expected. The current off- shore gas consumption is approximately 0.6 billion Nm3/year and is expected to increase
to approximately 0.8 billion Nm3/year in
2030. In the period from 2020 to 2030, total consumption, including consumption in the North Sea, is expected to remain relatively stable at approximately 3.2 billion Nm3/year.
In projections made in 2009 and 2010, natural gas consumption was assessed to be lower than in the most recent projection, one reason being uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of the current economic downturn. Low economic growth leads to reduced energy consumption and makes the projection very uncertain. Total fossil-fuel consumption, for example, declined by more than 5% from 2008 to 2009, a period when the economic situation worsened signifi- cantly.
The Danish Energy Agency’s projection for the 2011-2030 period can be seen in Figure 5-6 together with Energinet.dk’s projection, which extends to 2020.
5.2.2 Energinet.dk’s
projection
Energinet.dk makes an annual projection of Danish natural gas consumption. This year, the projection extends to 2020.
Energinet.dk’s projection method involves the use of the SIVAEL model, which simu- lates the CHP sector for selected years on an hourly basis. The model calculates the natural gas consumption of central, local and industrial CHP plants as well as peak- load boilers. The natural gas consumption of other industries and households is not cal- culated. The projection of this consumption is based on the most recent projection from the Danish Energy Agency (April 2011). Energinet.dk’s projection is based on the energy agreement of 21 February 2008 and a number of assumptions set out by the Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk’s data coor- dination group. Energinet.dk’s projection is based on data collected in connection with the preparation of Energinet.dk’s Environmental Report 2011. The International Energy Agency’s 2010 fuel price forecast is used.
The SIVAEL simulations include means of integrating wind power in the form of
electric vehicles, heat pumps in CHP areas and individual heat pumps in replacement of oil-fired boilers. The projection does not take into account the fact that natural gas may be used in the transport sector within the time span analysed.
Energinet.dk’s simulation results can be seen from Figure 5-7, which shows the de- velopment in natural gas consumption by segment. In the first year, total consump- tion drops slightly, and in the following years the annual fall is somewhat higher. In 2016, the declining trend stagnates tem- porarily because of a higher consumption by central and local CHP plants. As can be seen, Energinet.dk expects central CHP plants to continue using gas to a substan- tial extent.
On average, Energinet.dk’s projection of the gas consumption in the exit zone for the period 2011-2020 is approximately 0.3 billion Nm3/year higher than the Danish
Energy Agency’s similar projection. One of the explanations of this is differences in the assumptions underlying the model simulations on which the projection of the consumption at central and local CHP plants is based. This could, for example, be
Billion Nm3/year Central CHP Local CHP Industrial CHP Peak-load boilers Other sectors Households
Figure 5‑7 Energinet.dk’s projection of natural gas consumption in the Danish
exit zone by consumption segment. 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
60
Gas in Denmark - Energinet.dk
differences relating to the possible conver- sion of central CHP plants to other fuels and the development in the number and capa- city of natural gas-fired local CHP plants.
5.2.3 Outlook for the deve-
lopment in Sweden’s gas
consumption and supplies
Today, Sweden exclusively receives its natural gas supplies from Denmark via Dragør, and Denmark is expected to remain Sweden’s sole source of supply.
In Sweden, areas such as biogas in the net- work and gas for the transport sector are undergoing continuous development. It is difficult, however, to assess the impact on consumption and possible local supply sources.
Swedish consumption rose sharply in 2009 and 2010, one of the reasons being the com- missioning of the new CHP plant in Malmoe, and consumption in 2011 is expected to be in the range of 1.4 billion Nm3/year. The projec-
tion of Swedish natural gas consumption is uncertain, but current consumption is expected to fall slightly, as is also indicated by announcements from the Swedish Energy
Agency15 and Swedegas. In the coming years,
Energinet.dk therefore expects Swedish natural gas consumption to be slightly higher than 1.3 billion Nm3/year.
5.2.4 Capacity requirements
In Energinet.dk’s projection, total Danish consumption (excluding offshore gas con- sumption) is calculated at approximately 3.1 billion Nm3/year for 2015 and 2.8 billion Nm3/
year for 2020, see Table 5-1. Energinet.dk has estimated Swedish gas consumption at ap- proximately 1.3 billion Nm3/year for both 2015
and 2020.
During a normal winter, Energinet.dk assumes that peak day consumption in Denmark and Sweden is as shown in Table 5-2. For the peak day consumption, the estimate makes use of a daily load factor (the relationship between average and peak day consumption) of 0.5 for both Denmark and Sweden. Sweden is supplied with gas through the Danish transmission system via Dragør.
15 Corresponds to the Danish Energy Agency.