Analyst Certification
Jerry Su and Harvie Chou each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Acer Group (2353.TW)
2353.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
27-Jun-16 14.95 10.00 U
31-Mar-17 14.40 11.00
28-Jun-17 16.10 15.00 N
11-Aug-17 14.65 16.00
14-Nov-17 19.50 19.00
13-Feb-18 24.10 21.00 U
10-May-18 23.70 19.00
13-Dec-18 20.05 20.00 N
17-Apr-19 21.25 21.00
30-May-19 19.00 21.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
U N D ERPERFO RM N EU T RA L
3-Year Price and Rating History for Asustek (2357.TW)
2357.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
08-Aug-16 270.50 255.00 N
12-Aug-16 263.00 250.00
11-Nov-16 262.50 245.00
10-Jan-17 270.50 250.00
14-Feb-17 275.50 240.00
16-Feb-17 274.00 260.00
11-May-17 293.00 225.00 U
14-Aug-17 246.00 175.00
07-Nov-17 262.00 185.00
13-Nov-17 273.00 252.00 N
13-Feb-18 270.00 280.00
13-May-18 279.00 278.00
19-Jul-18 259.50 255.00
13-Aug-18 254.50 250.00
14-Nov-18 208.00 183.00 U
21-Mar-19 225.00 185.00
30-May-19 216.50 185.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Compal Electronics (2324.TW)
2324.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
16-Jun-16 20.30 19.00 N
06-Jul-16 20.10 20.00
08-Aug-16 20.30 22.00
29-Sep-16 19.35 24.00 O
10-Jan-17 18.70 21.00 N
10-Aug-17 19.85 20.00
07-Nov-17 22.00 22.00
13-Nov-17 21.25 20.00
19-Mar-18 20.95 23.00
03-Sep-18 19.25 21.00
12-Nov-18 17.55 19.00
30-May-19 19.40 19.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Gigabyte Technology Co., Ltd (2376.TW)
2376.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
28-Sep-17 38.55 35.00 N *
07-Nov-17 47.85 38.00
09-Nov-17 46.00 35.00 U
03-Jan-18 55.30 37.00
13-Feb-18 67.40 43.00
18-Apr-18 67.00 50.00
27-Jun-18 68.20 54.00
19-Jul-18 61.10 46.00
13-Dec-18 38.70 33.00
25-Feb-19 46.10 42.00 N
11-Apr-19 50.80 44.00
30-May-19 44.60 44.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
N EU T RA L U N D ERPERFO RM
N EU T RA L O U T PERFO RM
N EU T RA L U N D ERPERFO RM
6 June 2019
3-Year Price and Rating History for Inventec Co Ltd (2356.TW)
2356.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
16-Jun-16 22.65 21.00 N
08-Aug-16 24.60 23.00
29-Sep-16 25.55 31.00 O
14-Nov-16 22.85 30.00
10-Jan-17 23.45 29.00
15-May-17 23.15 28.00
13-Nov-17 23.05 25.00 N
27-Mar-18 23.35 23.00
15-May-18 23.15 22.00
15-Aug-18 25.00 24.00
13-Nov-18 23.35 22.00
30-May-19 23.85 22.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Lenovo Group Ltd (0992.HK)
0992.HK Closing Price Target Price
Date (HK$) (HK$) Rating
08-Aug-16 5.45 7.50 O
04-Nov-16 4.86 7.00
10-Jan-17 5.01 6.80
14-Feb-17 5.20 6.60
16-Feb-17 4.88 5.00 N
29-Sep-17 4.31 R
20-Nov-17 4.44 5.00 N
25-Jan-18 4.72 4.55
25-May-18 4.18 4.20
16-Aug-18 4.60 4.60
02-Oct-18 5.76 5.50
15-Jan-19 5.71 R
16-Jan-19 5.71 5.50 N
22-Feb-19 7.00 6.20
30-May-19 5.62 6.20 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Micro-Star International Co., Ltd (2377.TW)
2377.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
28-Sep-17 66.40 77.00 O *
07-Nov-17 74.20 78.00
22-Nov-17 73.40 83.00
13-Feb-18 85.40 85.00 N
09-May-18 100.00 90.00
15-May-18 111.50 98.00
19-Jul-18 101.00 80.00 U
13-Aug-18 100.50 86.00
13-Dec-18 69.10 73.00 N
11-Mar-19 82.60 80.00
29-Mar-19 86.50 85.00
30-May-19 78.50 85.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
N EU T RA L O U T PERFO RM
O U T PERFO RM N EU T RA L REST RICT ED
O U T PERFO RM N EU T RA L U N D ERPERFO RM
3-Year Price and Rating History for Quanta Computer (2382.TW)
2382.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
16-Jun-16 58.50 45.00 U
08-Aug-16 59.10 47.00
15-Aug-16 60.60 52.00 N
29-Sep-16 67.40 60.00
10-Jan-17 61.50 63.00
25-Apr-17 64.20 61.00
10-Aug-17 75.70 66.00
07-Nov-17 72.00 68.00
14-Nov-17 72.30 64.00
28-Mar-18 59.20 58.00
13-May-18 53.10 51.00
08-Aug-18 53.10 55.00
14-Sep-18 52.00 57.00
14-Nov-18 49.50 52.00
02-Apr-19 58.00 55.00
30-May-19 56.70 55.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Razer Inc. (1337.HK)
1337.HK Closing Price Target Price
Date (HK$) (HK$) Rating
18-Dec-17 3.73 4.10 N *
13-Feb-18 3.03 3.20
22-Mar-18 3.12 3.25
19-Jul-18 1.69 1.90
30-Aug-18 1.77 1.95
13-Dec-18 1.16 1.40 O
22-Mar-19 1.61 1.70
30-May-19 1.50 1.70 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
3-Year Price and Rating History for Wistron (3231.TW)
3231.TW Closing Price Target Price
Date (NT$) (NT$) Rating
16-Jun-16 19.75 14.66 N
08-Aug-16 21.81 18.33
15-Aug-16 19.96 18.87
29-Sep-16 22.51 19.82
10-Jan-17 23.45 30.20 O
23-May-17 25.34 33.03
17-Oct-17 24.78 30.12
13-Mar-18 26.57 32.06
09-May-18 23.03 31.09
13-May-18 22.49 32.00
13-Aug-18 21.85 29.00
14-Sep-18 20.50 21.00 N
14-Jan-19 19.40 20.00
21-Jan-19 20.00 18.50
26-Mar-19 22.95 21.00
30-May-19 23.40 21.00 *
* Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage.
U N D ERPERFO RM N EU T RA L
N EU T RA L O U T PERFO RM
N EU T RA L O U T PERFO RM
6 June 2019
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a sto ck’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the re levant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and Asia stocks (excluding Japan and Australia), ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark (India - S&P BSE Sensex Index); prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to it s current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stoc ks, the expected total return (ETR) calculation includes 12-month rolling dividend yield. An Outperform rating is assigned where an ETR is greater than or equal to 7.5%; Underperform where an ETR less than or equal to 5%. A Neutral may be assigned where the ETR is between -5% and 15%. The overlapping rating range allows analysts to assign a rating that puts ETR in the context of associated risks. Prior to 18 May 2015, ETR ranges for Outperform and Underperform ratings did not overlap with Neutral thresholds between 15% and 7.5%, which was in operation from 7 July 2011.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Not Rated (NR) : Credit Suisse Equity Research does not have an investment rating or view on the stock or any other securities related to the company at this time.
Not Covered (NC) : Credit Suisse Equity Research does not provide ongoing coverage of the company or offer an investment rating or investment view on the equity security of the company or related products.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 46% (32% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 39% (28% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 13% (22% banking clients)
Restricted 2%
*For purposes of the NYSE and FINRA ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
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Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Acer Group (2353.TW)
Method: We have a NEUTRAL rating and NT$21 target price for Acer on 17x P/E (price-to-earnings) vs Acer's average P/E of 18.5x starting 2018, factoring in a stabilising PC mix and growing gaming PC/concept D business but overall soft PC demand. We rate the stock NEUTRAL as we see a stabilising PC business/mix with modestly growing Chromebook momentum.
Risk: The key upside risks to our NEUTRAL rating and NT$21 12-month target price for Acer include: (1) PC demand is stronger than expected;
(2) another PC brand mis-executes on a product cycle; (3) Cloud business generates better cash flows. Downside risks include: (1) PC demand is worse than expected; (2) Acer loses market share to competitors; and (3) the Cloud business generates lower cash flows Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Asustek (2357.TW)
Method: We have an UNDERPERFORM rating and 12-month target price of NT$185 for Asustek because we expect notebook sales to remain challenging for Asus in China and Western Europe, while higher investments on "republic of gamers" brand make smartphones not going to tuning up profitability near term. Components are impacted by cryptocurrency demand slowdowns, which would probably normalise by 1H19. Our 12-month target price is based on 11x 2019E EPS (earnings per share) vs its historical three-year average of 12.4x.
Risk: Key risks to our UNDERPERFORM rating and NT$185 12-month target price for Asus include: (1) notebook demand and share change would have a major impact on earnings given the revenue contribution; (2) strong smartphone demand; (3) the size and pace of investments VR/robotics/5G would impact future earnings growth; and (4) components earnings not enough to bring up overall performance.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Compal Electronics (2324.TW)
Method: We have an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of NT$23 on Compal because We believe Compal's NB shipment will outgrow the market in 2019-20E (+1-4% YoY vs industry down 1-2% YoY) as the top three NB brands continue to gain share, as well as better demand from commercial NB. We also expect Compal's non-PC business to see faster growth in 2019, driven by better iPad build and share gain on Apple Watch with potential turn-around in 2020.
Risk: The risks to our OUTPERFORM rating and NT$23 TP for Compal include: (1) weaker iPad/Watch shipment; 2) continuing CPU supply constraint; and 3) share loss at its NB customers.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Gigabyte Technology Co., Ltd (2376.TW)
Method: We have an NEUTRAL rating and 12-month target price of NT$42.5 for Gigabyte Technology Co., Ltd based on 12x 2019E EPS (earnings per share) around its trailing three-year P/E (price-to-earnings) average. Our NEUTRAL rating is based on our expectation of server revenue growth; while graphic card demand is not sustainable, in our view. We believe our 12x TP multiple factors in tepid graphic card demand, motherboard upgrades and server growth.
Risk: Key risks to our NEUTRAL rating and NT$42.5 target price for Gigabyte include: (1) better/worse-than-expected gaming market momentum; (2) motherboard share gain/loss and better/worse motherboard market growth; (3) greater/weak order momentum from the server business; and (4) progress/delay in system business.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Inventec Co Ltd (2356.TW)
Method: We rate Inventec NEUTRAL with a 12-month target price of NT$23 driven by higher production cost in the near future to deal with US/China trade issue. Inventec is the most leveraged to server/storage spending. NT$23 is based on 12x 12M forward P/E (price-to-earnings).
Risk: The risks to our NEUTRAL rating and NT$23 target price for Inventec include: (1) PC share gain/loss and overall market momentum; (2) better/weaker than expected IAC momentum; (3) currency impact on the data-centre business; and (4) higher/lower than expected production cost.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Lenovo Group Ltd (0992.HK)
Method: We rate Lenovo NEUTRAL with a HK$6.20 12-month target price based on 13.5x our FY20 GAAP EPS (earnings per share). We expect cost pressures hit Data Center business and pushes out the turnaround time frame. We believe Data-center can be a profitable business in long-term. Share trades at three-year range of 9-16x. Near-term, we remain cautious on Lenovo largely due to risks of overall soft consumer products demand and commentary suggesting slowing data-center capex.
6 June 2019
Risk: Risks to our NEUTRAL rating and HK$6.20 12-month price target for Lenovo include: (1) faster-/slower-than-expected cost savings in both Mobile and Data-center business; (2) faster-/slower-than-expected growth in Data-center; (3) Lenovo MBG growth/slow down; (4) MBG market share gain/loss.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Micro-Star International Co., Ltd (2377.TW)
Method: We have a NEUTRAL rating and 12-month target price of NT$85 for Micro-Star International Co., Ltd., based on 11x 2019E EPS (earnings per share) vs its trailing three-year P/E (price-to-earnings) average (exclude cryptocurrency's volatility) of 10.6x and P/E range of 7-13x. Our NEUTRAL rating is based on expectation of growing gaming momentum, soft motherboard demand, with graphic card inventory normalizing and dividend yield support.
Risk: Key risks to our NEUTRAL rating and NT$85 target price for Micro-Star International Co., Ltd. include the following: (1) Stronger/worse than expected gaming Personal Computer momentum; (2) better/worse-than-expected new Graphics Processing Units demand; and (3) better/worse-than-expected Do-It-Yourself market demand; (4) higher/lower component costs.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Quanta Computer (2382.TW)
Method: We have a NEUTRAL rating for Quanta because we expect Quanta's Apple Watch units to increase but MacBook business to fall short of expectations. Watch demand has not driven up overall profitability; and MacBook growth could be impacted by iPad Pro. We believe this could lead to earnings down; Cloud data-centre is its key growth driver, but the market is even more competitive, but we still look for Quanta's 5G potentials on infrastructure. Our TP of NT$64 is based on 14x 2019E EPS (earnings per share), 1SD above historical average.
Risk: Upside risks to our NEUTRAL rating and NT$64 target price for Quanta include the following: (1) better-than-expected notebook/Apple Macbook and Watch/server and data-centre demand and share gains; (2) improving capex cycle momentum. Downside risks include: (1) worse-than-expected notebook/Apple Macbook and Watch/server and data-centre demand and share gains; and (2) currency and macro impact on non-operating income.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Razer Inc. (1337.HK)
Method: We have an OUTPERFORM rating and 12M target price of HK$1.7 for Razer Inc. on 1.5x 2019E EV/sales, based on historical 3YR average of Logitech/MSI (peers). Our valuation using EV/sales methodology reflecting large net cash posistion (i.e. over 40% of market cap).
Risk: Risks to our OUTPERFORM rating and 12M target price of HK$1.7 for Razer Inc. include: (1) increasing competition, particularly from global PC and gaming PC brands, which may impact hardware sales growth; (2) decreasing mobile profitability; (3) competing platforms to Razer's zGold; and (4) long-term, new services (i.e., zGold) may not become the industry's leading platform and/or not reach scale leading to a material impact on the company's financial performance.
Target Price and Rating
Valuation Methodology and Risks: (12 months) for Wistron (3231.TW)
Method: We have a NEUTRAL rating and 12-month target price of NT$23.5 for Wistron. Our target price is based on a P/E (price-to-earnings) of 12x, or at its three-year average. We expect Wistron to lose share during this iPhone cycle but longer-term could still increase share depending on Apple iPhone growth. Wiwynn's growth outlook remains strong and intact, but expects a slow down near term.
Risk: Risks to our NEUTRAL rating and 12-month target price of NT$23.5 for Wistron include the following: (1) the profitability Wistron is able to generate on iPhone assembly, which also goes hand-in-hand with units and volumes; (2) notebook order gain/loss to other ODMs; (3) higher capex to build India manufacturing; and (4) LCM business may be outdated as all iPhone moves to OLED in long term.
Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures/view/selectArchive for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
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Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (0992.HK, INTC.OQ, AAPL.OQ, AMD.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPE.N, DELL.N, HPQ.N, QCOM.OQ, AMZN.OQ, GOOGL.OQ, BIDU.OQ, BABA.N, 0700.HK, FB.OQ, IBM.N, EBAY.OQ, ORCL.N, MMM.N) within the past 12 months.
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0992.HK, INTC.OQ, AMD.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPE.N, DELL.N, HPQ.N, AMZN.OQ, GOOGL.OQ, BABA.N, 0700.HK, IBM.N, EBAY.OQ, MMM.N Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (0992.HK, HPE.N, DELL.N, 0700.HK, IBM.N, MMM.N) within the past 12 months.
Within the past 12 months, Credit Suisse has received compensation for investment banking services from the following issuer(s): 0992.HK, INTC.OQ, AAPL.OQ, AMD.OQ, MSFT.OQ, HPE.N, DELL.N, HPQ.N, AMZN.OQ, GOOGL.OQ, BIDU.OQ, BABA.N, 0700.HK, FB.OQ, IBM.N, EBAY.OQ, ORCL.N, MMM.N
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Credit Suisse or a member of the Credit Suisse Group is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the following subject issuer(s):