Discussion, projected changes in production structure

The total number of animal movements between farms was assumed to decrease in all scenarios due to the reduction in the number of animals in the country. It can also be expected that the batch size will increase. In our baseline scenario for the pig sector, the minimum batch size increase was assumed to be 50%. This is linked to the assumption that the number of contacts per farm will increase 3-fold and the total number of animal transport contacts in Finland will decrease by 35%. Because the reduction in the number of cattle farms was assumed to be smaller than that of

Depending on the farm type, the pig farm size was projected to increase by 160– 650% in the baseline scenario, while the number of pig farms decreased by 79%. It is unlikely that the annual number of animal contacts of a pig farm will decrease in the future. It would require the batch size in the baseline scenario to be at least 5.37 times larger (i.e. the proportion of re-linked contacts equals approximately 0.15) than in 2009, when the average batch size was 68 pigs. As a result, the average number of pigs per transport between farms would be 365. The 99th percentile of the batch size was 428 pigs in 2009. In other words, an increase to a 5.37 larger batch size appears unlikely. Pig transport vehicles vary in size. This scenario would require that the size of the typical transport vehicle in 2033 would be equal to the largest vehicles in 2009. Infrastructure limitations such as the quality of roads and the size of bridges may limit the possibility to increase the average vehicle size. However, the transporta- tion technology may also change over the 20-year period, so that even larger vehicles may be available in 2033.

Assumptions regarding the increase in farm size also influence the possible range of animal transport contacts. It can be expected that the limiting factor is the size of the receiving farms, i.e. the size of finishing farms. The size was assumed to be only 2.6 times greater than in 2009. This may suggest a re-linking proportion of 0.5. If this criterion is applied, we are simultaneously assuming that the total number of animal transport contacts is only reduced by 60% and the contacts per farm per year increase by at least 160%. Larger increases in the batch size would only be possible if the duration of growing in the finishing stage was markedly reduced, which is not expected.

In the cattle sector, the average batch size was 2.2 animals in 2009. This suggests that a situation is very likely to be achieved where the number of contacts of a farm per year would decrease according to our assumptions (re-linking 0.43). This would require an increase in the batch size to at least 6.6 animals, which is three-fold higher than in 2009. In 2009, the largest batches were markedly larger. The 99th percentile of the batch size was 20 animals in 2009. This suggests that the increase is very possible and that this assumption requires weaker assumptions for the increase in vehicle size than in the pig sector. Even a larger increase in batch size appears possible. Re-linking of all semi-linked contacts (batch size would be 9.8 times higher) would lead to a reduction in the total number of cattle transports by over 80%. Sweden has a different production structure from Finland. Large cattle farms were more common in Sweden than in Finland in 2006–2008. During recent years, the average farm size in Finland has been similar to that in Sweden 10–20 years earlier. By applying data from Nöremark et al. (2011), it can be estimated that the average batch size in Sweden was 7.75 animals (505 908 individual animal trans- portation records, 65 201 movements) in 2008. Achieving a similar level in Finland, the batch size should increase by approximately 3.5-fold in the “Baseline 2033” scenario. By combining these two criteria, it can be considered realistic to achieve a 3–4 times larger batch size in the cattle sector by 2033. However, substantial adapta- tions in logistics may be required.

If we assume that the increase in the batch size is directly related to the farm size increase, the probable increase in the batch size would be lower. In our projection,

dairy and suckler cow farms were 2.7 times larger than in 2009. Larger increases in the batch size would require production-related changes on farms. The end point of cattle production, beef cattle rearing farms, is only slightly larger in our projections than in 2009. Their number is decreasing less than the number of dairy farms. If this is taken into account, it would lead to even smaller batch size increases. The ability of these farms to receive animals would not increase much if they operate as they did in 2009. It may be assumed that the increase in the batch size is probably less than 170% and the relevant proportion of re-linked contacts is at minimum 0.5.

If the efficiency of logistics and production increase less than farm size, the average batch size will probably also increase less. Thus, assuming maximum re-linking (1) of animal transports, it would lead to a situation where only a modest 50% increase in batch size is achieved. However, this would reduce the benefits of increased farm size. A re-linkage of 0.75 would probably cause a more credible lower limit for the batch size increase (90%) along with increasing farm size.

The alternative scenarios differ from the baseline. The “Slow pig 2033” scenario assumes a smaller reduction in the number of farms and a smaller increase in the number of animals on the farms. On the contrary, the “Fast cattle 2033” scenario assumes a larger reduction in the number of cattle farms and a larger increase in the farm size.

Using the above logic, the smallest possible batch size increase in the “Slow pig 2033” scenario is 66%, because the finishing farm size increases accordingly. In the “Slow pig 2033” scenario, a re-linkage proportion of 52% of animal transports corresponds to a 66% increase in the batch size. In the “Fast cattle 2033” scenario, the minimum batch size increase would be slightly higher than in the baseline scenario. This means that the minimum increase in batch size would be 250% (corresponding to a re-linkage of 0.49). If farm size-related criteria are applied in re-linking, the possible re-linking is similar, regardless of the applied scenario. This is because the number of semi-linked contacts changes together with the number of farms defined by a scenario.

Despite what was noted above, in all scenarios and re-linking options, the batch size is larger than in 2009 in both production sectors. This study does not present any results for a situation in which Finnish animal production operates logistically “less efficiently” than today.