Some of your team members may be SMEs, and they are here to help you establish the project plan. They have already established the activities and built their net-work. Now it is time for them to estimate their durations. Because SMEs are not necessarily assigned to the project when they estimate the duration, they approach it from a different point of view. The SMEs’ estimates are in workload — that is, number of hours. Their estimate should be for an average performer — not them.
The activity’s duration is calculated from the workload and an assumption regarding the effective workday (Figure 11.3). The effective workday is the number of hours per day an individual can work on the project.
Develop Program Content & Layout
TOM 243
267, 421, 551 5 Days
11.2 The duration is calculated.
Duration = Workload/Effective workday
Example:
Duration = 48 hrs/6 hrs per day = 8.0 days
11.3 Duration from workload.
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110 n Building a Project Work Breakdown Structure
In this example, the project’s assumption for effective workday is six hours and the SME defined workload is 48 hours. The duration will then be eight days. It is important to note that as an individual is assigned to this activity, they will review the activity (deliverable) and reaffirm the duration.
Let’s Practice
We can start Step 7 as soon as the resources are assigned. There was no reluctance on the part of the team members to provide the necessary duration estimates. There is some difficulty in estimating durations for the subcontractor responses (deliv-erables) such as turn-around times for menus, specifications for fencing, tenting, electrical, and water resources — we use what we think will be average durations.
The subcontractors will later validate the averages. Our network is now ready for critical path analysis (Figure 11.4).
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FinishProject
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A TOM
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11.4 Network is now ready for critical path analysis.
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Specific Facilitation Instructions
During this step, you will estimate the durations of your activities. By duration, we mean the lapse time to per-form an activity. Your duration estimates will be used to calculate the critical path for the project. The critical path is simply the longest, timewise, path through the Network. We will be estimating in days, so your smallest duration is a day. It is a day even if the activity takes only two minutes to perform. You are free to estimate what you think the activity’s duration might be, and your esti-mates will be treated as just an estimate. There will be a later time when you must commit to your estimates but for now, they are just estimates.
First, let me remind you that we will (probably) be exe-cuting the Process a second time (second pass). This means we need your estimates for your activities now, but you will have opportunities later to modify them.
You should write your durations on the Post-Its in the middle of the top and between the reserved boxes (Figure 11.5).
As you enter your durations, circle them. This circle helps us distinguish the duration from the unique identifier.
You can imagine the effect on the project duration if you used 243 (the UI) days rather than the intended five days’
duration. I really want an estimate you can meet —a dura-tion that you feel is right. I want neither your lowest nor your highest. At this time, just use your average duration.
Develop Program Content & Layout
TOM 243
267, 421, 551 5 Days
11.5 The duration is posted.
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112 n Building a Project Work Breakdown Structure
If you have difficulty estimating, you need to ask your-self why. If it is something you have never done, then redefine the deliverable and the activity. If it is some-thing you have done but it was difficult, then add on a little extra duration.
If your activity has a wide range of possible dura-tions, consider using the PERT equation. PERT is a technique for calculating the duration of an activ-ity that has uncertainty.
A PERT estimate requires three duration estimates:
(1) most likely (ML), (2)
calculation would result in a duration of 11 days. If you had used a single point estimate, it would be the same as the PERT “most likely” estimate — duration of ten days. The large value of the pessimistic estimate (20) increases the duration by one day. If your division leaves you a remainder, round up your duration to the nearest whole number.
11.7 Duration from workload.
Example:
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Step 7 n 113
This estimate should be for an average performer — not you. The duration is calculated from your workload estimate and the effective workday. The effective work-day is the number of hours per work-day an individual can work on the project. The duration of your defined activ-ities is calculated from their defined workload and an assumed effective workday (Figure 11.7).
In this example, the project’s assumption for effective workday is six hours and your defined workload is 48 hours. The duration will then be eight days. This dura-tion will be used in Step 8. As you enter your workload estimates on the Post-Its, indicate the workload in hours as indicated in Figure 11.8.
This step is time boxed for XX minutes. If you do not have any questions, let’s get to work!”
Hint
There will be situations where an individual still will refuse to provide an estimate.
If it is obvious that they truly have no idea what the estimates should be, engage the help of an SME. This usually causes the individual to rethink his position and his estimate is forthcoming.
Develop Program Content & Layout
243
267, 421, 551
Designer 40 Hours
11.8 Workload, in hours.
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