Each of the project phases implies a significantly different mixture of demand for education and training. For example, the design phase, focused on engineering, requires more employees with engineering degrees whereas the build construction phase requires relatively fewer employees with higher levels of education, but requires the greatest proportion of training for construction-related personnel. Implied in both cases is the need to train and educate this workforce to address emergent HSR system demands in technology and specialized skills. Next, we identify the types of training and education required for the positions associated with the project, by project phase. We also will identify the education requirements associated with the estimated peak period, which has the highest demand for personnel, and observe the patterns associated with that workforce at that time. Through this process, we will gain insight into the workforce and its likely needs for education created over the life of the CHSR project, creating a thorough description and inventory of the demand for education created by the construction of the HSR network.
We begin this process by examining the total need for education associated with the workforce over the life of the project through identifying the probability of each worker’s education background. Connecting the total PY estimates to the likely occupational probabilities, table 5 exhibits the estimated demand, by level of education, over the life of the CHSR network construction.
37 Estimates of Employment and Workforce Development
Table 5. Level of Education Expected to be Attained by the CHSR Workforce, by Year, 2009–2025 Year Less Than High School High School A.A./A.S. Some College, No Degree
B.A./B.S. M.A./M.S. Ph.D. Total
2009 0 1 0 1 72 38 7 120 2010 0 1 0 1 72 38 7 120 2011 150 333 78 213 496 192 24 1,487 2012 4,973 8,147 594 2,428 2,199 317 43 18,700 2013 11,500 18,857 1,286 5,510 4,387 473 64 42,077 2014 11,960 19,681 1,392 5,853 5,067 526 67 44,545 2015 12,402 20,483 1,450 6,813 4,762 535 68 46,513 2016 11,378 18,683 1,353 5,586 4,482 538 68 42,088 2017 5,805 9,494 770 2,961 2,711 420 53 22,214 2018 662 1,182 174 559 764 257 34 3,631 2019 261 652 242 510 1,490 695 86 3,935 2020 407 2,034 552 1,446 1,039 368 65 5,911 2021 623 2,091 438 1,197 464 125 14 4,600–4,950 2022 623 2,091 438 1,197 464 125 14 4,600–4,950 2023 623 2,091 438 1,197 464 125 14 4,600–4,950 2024 623 2,091 438 1,197 464 125 14 4,600–4,950 2025 623 2,091 438 1,197 464 125 14 4,600–4,950 Annual Total Demand 62,613 110,003 10,081 37,866 29,861 5,022 656 256,092
Table 5 provides an estimate of the total direct workforce needed to complete the project, including the education required by the personnel we have identified. This table provides an initial linkage between the direct employment associated with the project and the education likely needed. These requirements are expressed in broad education groupings (e.g., level of degree attained); however, every employee, regardless of background and education, will require HSR-specific training and/or education. For example, many laborers will not require more than a high-school diploma, but those workers will require apprenticeships or other types of HSR-specific training experiences.
M i n e t a Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n I n s t i t u t e
Figure 7. Education Needs (As a Percentage), CHSR Network Build-Out
Figure 7 provides an illustration of the percentages listed in table 5. The patterns that emerge are:
• Trades/construction employees (in light grey) at the high-school and below level constitute 67.4 percent of the total workforce. At this level of education, there is more need for employees who have a diploma than for those who do not (24.45 percent no diploma; 42.95 percent high-school diploma).
• The need for higher education is associated with 12.9 percent of the total workforce. Primarily, these will be B.A./B.S. holders.
• Some college training or education (no degree), including certification, constitutes 18.73 percent of the total workforce.
Workers with at least some college education constitute 30 to 32 percent of the total workforce, with less educated workers (high-school diploma and below) constituting 68 to 70 percent of the total workforce. Of those positions requiring higher education, some college (no degree) is the largest pool (e.g., certification process or other education), with B.A./B.S. holders constituting the second-largest need for education. M.A. and Ph.D. holders constitute around 2 percent of total workforce. Thus, approximately 70 percent of the workforce will require what is generally accepted as training through trades and similar programs, and approximately 30 percent will require training through institutions of higher education (community colleges and beyond). Some workers may avail themselves of both training and higher education experiences; our model cannot identify how many.
Interpretation
Figure 7 identifies three levels of need. The first level of need will be to train and educate massive numbers of workers in HSR construction training, which is a core competency of the trades partners. Applying a general metric, this implies training to target those with a lesser level of education, as depicted in figure 7 (although it is recognized that all workers
39 Estimates of Employment and Workforce Development
have some probability of holding more or less education than measured). The second level of need is classified as some college to A.A./A.S.-level holders, in which community colleges will be needed to train this diverse workforce over the life of the project. In the third level of need, there remains a small, but critical, B.A./B.S. and above workforce, who will be challenged with upper management and design responsibility as well as the education of some operations and maintenance personnel.
As discussed earlier, these estimates are based on probabilities and the assumption that certain patterns of education in similar workforces constitute the need for a degree in the HSR workforce. Ideally, there would be an explicit line drawn between our assemblage of education need and the specific training and education demands associated with each phase of the project. However, our data set is not sensitive enough to provide this level of detail. For example, just having a high-school degree does not connote readiness to work as an HSR construction worker, just as holding a BS degree in engineering does not necessarily imply readiness to work as an HSR engineer. Thus, more details regarding the specific types of training and education curricula are needed to create a comprehensive understanding of the workforce attributes of the future HSR system. However, these estimates do actively begin to frame education and training needs, with the understanding that each worker will need to be trained at a certain level to complete their HSR-specific jobs. Thus, although we cannot identify varied training and education needs down to specific curricula, we explicitly identify the total patterns of need, according to the total estimated workforce.
Table 6 helps to illustrate this generalization of anticipated needs across phases. We identify the need for B.A./B.S. and M.A./M.S. degrees as generally being a “prerequisite” to working as a member of the design phase team. Second, a wider range of levels of education anticipated during the build management and build construction phases exists. Simultaneously, demand for high education decreases, replaced by training needs for the construction workforce. Last, we see even more varied levels of need across the operations and maintenance phase.
M i n e t a Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n I n s t i t u t e
Table 6. Total Direct Job (PY) Education Need Demographic By Phase, CHSR Network, 2009–2025
Phase Design Build Management Build Construction Operations and
Maintenance Less Than High
School 0% 9% 28% 13% High School 1% 21% 46% 42% A.A./A.S. 1% 6% 3% 9% Some College, No Degree 2% 15% 13% 24% B.A./B.S. 61% 34% 9% 9% M.A./M.S. 30% 13% 0% 3% Ph.D. 5% 2% 0% 0% Total PY 2,214 18,954 202,741 32,184