Emissions

The Air Quality Strategy (2000) describes the approach to estimating future emissions 37.

of air pollutants. The baseline projections used here are described in detail in Hobson (2005),9 _{Vincent et al (2005),}10 _{and Vincent (2005).}11 _{The current emission projections} are based on Department of Trade and Industry’s UEP12 energy forecasts,12,13

7 _{Hayman et al (2005) ‘Modelling of Tropospheric Ozone’, AEA Technology, National Environmental Technology Centre.Report AEAT/}

ENV/R/1858

8 _{Vincent K J (2005) ‘Assessment of Benzo[a]pyrene Concentrations in the United Kingdom in 2003’, AEA Technology, National}

Environmental Technology Centre. Report AEAT/ENV/R/1861

9 _{Hobson, M (2006) ‘Emission Projections’, AEA Technology, National Environmental Technology Centre}

10 _{Vincent K J and Passant N (2005) ‘Assessment of Heavy Metal Concentrations in the United Kingdom’, AEA Technology, National}

Environmental Technology Centre. Report AEAT/ENV/R/2013

11 _{Vincent K J (2005) ‘Assessment of Benzo[a]pyrene Concentrations in the United Kingdom in 2003’, AEA Technology, National}

Environmental Technology Centre. Report AEAT/ENV/R/1861

12 _{Department of Trade and Industry updated emissions projections. Final projections to inform the National Allocation Plan (NAP)}

11 November 2004. Available at http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/sepn/uep2004.pdf ?pubpdfdload=04%2F2099

13 _{During the course of this evaluation subsequent DTI forecasts were been released, in UEP21 and UEP26. While such changes will}

alter the estimated concentrations they have a negligible effect on the marginal impact of the measures appraised within this document. This information is presented in Volume 2 Chapter 1 of the evidence base published alongside the Air Quality Strategy. Information on the monetary impacts of altering the energy projections are provided in Annex 8 of this report.

Department for Transport’s 10 year plan for transport,14 _{updated in September 2004,}15 and the 2002 National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI).16

The general principle has been to embody in the projections those policies or 38.

commitments that are already in place or those on which agreement has been reached, even if the full administrative and legal procedures have not been finalised.

Regulations that have been taken into account include: 39.

•

The large combustion plant Directive (LCPD);17

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IPPC Directive;18

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The Solvent Emissions Directive;

•

Marpol VI;19

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Sulphur content of liquid fuels regulations; and

•

European directives on vehicle emissions and fuel quality.

The baseline projections assume that all relevant measures continue to be implemented 40.

and enforced, and all calculations and estimates are based on this. Progress on vehicle emissions, for example, is dependent upon the MOT system continuing to effectively monitor and regulate vehicle emissions. Forward thinking on particulates pre-supposes that the Clean Air Act controls on domestic premises will continue in force. The projections also assume that emissions reductions achieved through the Pollution Prevention and Control legislation and predecessor regimes continue to be delivered and enforced by the Environment Agency and local authorities.

2.4.2.1 Road traffic emissions forecasts

Motor vehicles are the major contributor to ground level concentrations in urban areas 41.

for most of the pollutants covered by the Strategy. The projection of future emissions from this sector is therefore central to estimating future air quality. The projections for this work were carried out by Netcen using the road traffic emissions factors and methods incorporated in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). Full details of the methods and factors are available.20

14 _{‘Transport Ten Year Plan 2000’, Department for Transport (2000).}

Available at http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_503944.hcsp

15 _{‘The Future of Transport – White Paper’, Department for Transport, (2004b).}

Available at http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/divisionhomepage/031259.hcsp

16 _{Available at http://www.naei.org.uk/reports.php.}

17 _{The Government has not taken final decisions on the implementation route in the UK. The UEP12 projections are broadly consistent}

with an emissions limit value approach.

18 _{The Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directive aims to minimising pollution from various point sources throughout the}

European Union. All installations covered by the Directive are required to obtain an authorisation (permit) from the authorities in the EU countries

19 _{An international agreement under the UN for limiting air pollution by ships. From 19th May 2005 the fuel used must contain no}

more than 4.5 per cent sulphur.

The emission projections generally assume that measures are introduced when required 42.

by legislation and not earlier and that all processes comply with this legislation.

The assumptions behind the activity data in the road transport emission projections 43.

contained in the current emission forecasts are as follows:

•

Vehicle kilometre estimates by vehicle and area type for current years are based on the Department for Transport (DfT) traffic census and are projected forward in time using vehicle kilometre forecasts from DfT’s National Transport Model.21 _Central traffic forecasts from ‘The Future of Transport – White Paper’22 _{are also used. The} DfT figures are for 2010, 2015, 2025 and are interpolated for other years.

•

The numbers of vehicles of different ages in the vehicle fleet are calculated using survival rates of the vehicles, modelled in terms of the probability that a vehicle of each different age remains on the road (starting at 1 for 1 year old vehicles, decreasing towards 0 as age increases). The survival rates of different types of vehicles are based on historical trends. The maximum age that a vehicle can remain on the road is assumed to be 20 years. The average vehicle lifetime implied by these survival rates is 12 years for cars, 10 years for LGVs and rigid HGVs and 8 years for articulated HGVs.

•

Estimates of new vehicle sales in future years are based on re-scaled forecasts from DfT’s Vehicle Market Model.23 _{Account is taken of the change in annual mileage} with age of vehicle using data from surveys carried out by DfT such as the National Travel Survey24 _{so that the proportion of kilometres travelled by vehicles of different} age meeting different Euro standards in any one year can be calculated. It is assumed that the growth in the percentage of diesel cars sold continues so that by 2010, 42% of all new cars sold in the UK are diesel.

•

In the baseline, it is assumed that no further Euro standards and vehicle technologies beyond those currently legislated are assumed to penetrate the fleet. Standards up to Euro IV for light-duty vehicles and Euro V for heavy-duty vehicles are included and it is assumed that the early introduction of some petrol cars meeting Euro IV standards occurs before the legislated date of 2005.

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Measurements of vehicle emission factors for vehicles meeting Euro III and IV standards (and Euro V for HDVs) are not currently available so are estimated by Netcen taking into account the type approval emission limits and durability requirements of the legislation.

•

The penetration of sulphur-free petrol and diesel fuels are mandatory from January 2009 by EU Directive 2003/17/EC and therefore their impact on emissions is assumed in the baseline.

21 _{‘The National Transport Model’, Department for Transport (2003).}

Available at http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_econappr/documents/divisionhomepage/030708.hcsp

22 _{‘The Future of Transport – White Paper’, Department for Transport, (2004b). Available at}

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/divisionhomepage/031259.hcsp

23 _{See website http://www.rmd.dft.gov.uk/project.asp?intProjectID=10045} 24 _{See website http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ssd/surveys/national_travel_survey.asp}

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Estimates of the fuel efficiency of current and new vehicles in the fleet are based on figures from DfT, including fleet-averaged estimates for HGVs from the ‘Continuous Survey for Road Goods Transport’ and figures on the CO2 emissions (related to

fuel efficiency) for new cars from DfT and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The fuel efficiency of new cars in the future is also based on estimates from DfT/SMMT in anticipation of downward trends in CO2 emissions

from new cars driven by the car manufacturers’ Voluntary Agreement.

•

Netcen estimates future trends in the fuel efficiency of other vehicle types based on the considered impact of technological changes introduced to meet tighter emission standards on air quality pollutants. Table 2.1 shows the estimated fuel efficiency of new cars and HGVs sold in 2000 and 2010

Table 2.1: Fuel efficiency of new cars and HGVs sold in 2000 and 2010

Vehicle Type Fuel efficiency (litre/100km)

2000 2010

Petrol Car 7.9 6.6

Diesel Car 6.3 5.4

Articulated HGV 37.8 36.0

Rigid HGV 28.2 26.9

In document An Economic Analysis to inform the Air Quality Strategy (Page 38-41)