Event Coding Scheme

The SAID data set draws on the Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) cod-ing scheme. Three reasons were decisive in chooscod-ing CAMEO for the purpose of this study:

First, the CAMEO coding framework makes sense from a theoretical perspective.

CAMEO, specially designed to code events relevant for mediation in violent conflict, pro-vides a comprehensive set of event types covering activities ranging from verbal comments to military action that display the range of potential events for this study, both within South Africa and in international relations towards South Africa. In the case of South Africa, too, the third party specialization of CAMEO (mediation) is beneficial since international en-gagement in South Africa played in part a similar role. But also for the case of negative and positive sanctions, CAMEO is able to provide information for relevant indicators.

Second, both the conflicts in South Africa and international relations towards South Africa were characterized by a variety of state and non-state actors on the international, state and sub-state level. Although contextualized almost completely within the Cold War, the conflict situation did hardly follow the “Westphalian-Clausewitzian” political worldview of sovereign states reacting to each other as is assumed in a classical coding scheme like WEIS.

Instead, sub-state actors as well as private actors such as nongovernmental movements (NGOs), multinational corporations (MNC) and liberation movements (such as the ANC)

played a crucial role. CAMEO established a systematic method to code such various state and non-state actors.

Third, using CAMEO in combination with the KEDS/TABARI has practical implica-tions too since CAMEO is being implemented by the KEDS project team at the University of Kansas. Machine coding involves a labor-intensive development of actors and verb dictionar-ies. The combination of CAMEO and KEDS/TABARI allows for the use of dictionaries that are available for other regions and adapt them for the specific region under study.

CAMEO was initially intended as an extension of the WEIS coding framework. It kept therefore most of the WEIS cue categories intact but incorporated new codes for events related to mediation and negotiation, particularly the extended Consult category (CAMEO 04).³³ CAMEO is also more sophisticated in event types that depict violence (CAMEO 18-20), formerly coded all under one WEIS cue category (WEIS 22 “Force”). Later, some cate-gories were merged into single cue catecate-gories—for example WEIS 07 (Promise) and WEIS 08 (Agree) became CAMEO 03 (Agree) including codes representing all forms of future commitment—since some of the distinctions in WEIS did not make sense for theoretical reasons or were simply not possible to make given the textual nature of the news sources.

(Sommer and Scarritt 1999; Gerner et al. 2002a).

In addition, CAMEO is consistent with respect to the order of its main cue catego-ries. Unlike WEIS and IDEA, it starts with the most neutral events and moves gradually from cooperation to conflict categories. Although the system provides only nominal categories, the CAMEO categories thus displays an ordinal increase in cooperation as one goes from cate-gory 01 (Make Public Statement) to 09 (Investigate), and an ordinal increase in conflict as one goes from 10 (Demand) to 20 (Attack with Weapons of Mass Destruction).

The specific SAID coding scheme (Table 8) includes three deviations from CAMEO:

1) Call for Sanctions (SAID 1314): This specification introduces a differentiation between official threats to boycott or reduce relations by the government of a state on the one hand (CAMEO 1312 and 1313) and calls by a third party (state, sub-state actor, NGO, etc.) upon a government to sanction another government (SAID 1314).

33 In the following, “cue category” refers to the broader, two-digit categories such as CAMEO 04 “Consult”.

More detailed categories are three-digit, e.g., CAMEO 045 “Engage in negotiation”.

2) Reduce Economic Relations (SAID 167): The original CAMEO framework depicts the reduction or break of diplomatic and aid relations (CAMEO 161 and 162) but not the re-duction of economic relations.

3) Tighten Embargo/Boycott/Sanctions (SAID 169): There was no specific CAMEO to code the intensification of already existing embargos, boycotts and sanction regimes.

Two other specific events that occur quite often in the context of South Africa under apartheid but did not feature a literally corresponding CAMEO code (bans of individuals or organiza-tions and condemnaorganiza-tions of the apartheid system) were assigned to theoretically equivalent CAMEO categories (CAMEO 111 and 172, respectively).

Table 8: SAID Coding System and Corresponding Goldstein Scale Values (Version 2.01, Apr 5 2006; based on CAMEO Version 0.7b3, Nov 10, 2003)

01: MAKE PUBLIC STATEMENT

023: Appeal for material aid, not specified below [3.4]

0231: Appeal for economic aid [3.4]

031: Agree to cooperate, not specified below [3.0]

0311: Agree to cooperate economically [6.0]

0312: Agree to cooperate militarily [6.0]

032: Agree to provide policy support [4.5]

033: Agree to provide material aid, not specified [5.2]

0331: Agree to provide economic aid [5.2]

093: Investigate military action or war crimes [-1.0]

10: DEMAND

123: Reject proposal to meet, discuss, negotiate [-1.1]

124: Defy norms, law [-5.0]

1311: Threaten to reduce or stop aid [-5.8]

1312: Threaten to boycott or embargo [-5.8]

1313: Threaten to reduce or break relations [-5.8]

1314: Call for sanctions* [-5.8]

140: Engage in direct political action, not specif. [-4.0]

141: Demonstrate [-6.0]

162: Reduce or stop aid, not specified below [-5.6]

1621: Reduce or stop economic assistance [-5.6]

171: Seize or damage property, not specified [-5.0]

1711: Confiscate property [-5.0]

183: Conduct suicide, car, other ind. bombing [-8.7]

184: Assassinate [-9.0]

19: FIGHT

190: Use conventional military force, not specif. [-10]

191: Impose blockade, restrict movement [-9.2]

192: Occupy territory [-9.2]

193: Fight with small arms and light weapons [-9.0]

194: Fight with artillery and tanks [-9.0]

195: Employ aerial weapons [-9.0]

20: ATTACK WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

200: Use massive unconvent. force, not specif. [-10]

201: Employ chem.., biol.., radiol.. weapons [-10]

202: Detonate nuclear weapons [-10]