The nation deals with all manner of disasters and catastrophes every day; be it a car crash, an apartment fire, or a flash flood. These events are handled by the first responders of local government, or if they increase in size and scope, eventually with the support of state government. However, sometimes disasters are of such scope and
magnitude that the federal government acts to supplement state and local governments when they are overwhelmed. Of these larger events, a few manage to affect large swaths of the country and demand a different, more intensely focused response from the federal government. Moreover, of these, just a few threaten the stability and trajectory of the United States.
A “catastrophic incident”26 is defined in the Homeland Security Act27 but many events might meet this rationale but fail meaningfully to threaten the stability of the United States. Several types of truly catastrophic incidents could be reasonably imagined that could seriously threaten the ability of the United States to survive in its current form or dramatically weaken the nation for a prolonged period of time. These existential catastrophes could include the use of multiple nuclear weapons on U.S. soil, pandemic flu, a series of major earthquakes, or the collapse of the U.S. power grid that requires near complete reconstruction.
In the 236 years of its existence, the United States has managed to avoid facing an existential catastrophe. The New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 happened in a sparsely populated part of the country. The San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 was too distant from the rest of the country for the effects of its devastation to spread. The costliest disaster in U.S. history, the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, did no more than temporarily slow the growth of the then fifth largest city in the country.28 Even the effects of Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina were largely regional. For instance, the area directly affected by Hurricane Katrina only accounted for about 2% of the nation’s gross
26 6 U.S.C. § 311. The term “catastrophic incident” means any natural disaster, act of terrorism, or other man-made disaster that results in extraordinary levels of casualties or damage or disruption severely affecting the population (including mass evacuations), infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, or government functions in an area.
27 Homeland Security Act of 2002, Public Law 107–296 (codified as amended at 6 U.S.C. §§ 101–
1405).
28 U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Considerations for a Catastrophic Declaration: Issues and Analysis, by Bruce R. Lindsay and Francis X. McCarthy, CRS Report R41884 (Washington, DC: Office of Congressional Information and Publishing, July 6, 2011), 10. If the economic value of lives were used, however, under that measure, the 1919 Influenza Pandemic would be the costliest with an estimated value of over four trillion dollars.
domestic product,29 although the latter did have some effect on domestic gasoline prices.30 However, numerous, plausible, and in some cases inevitable scenarios could result in the country facing its first existential catastrophic event.
Philip Bobbitt and Andrew Krepinevich both provide a handful of plausible scenarios that would dwarf any disaster yet experienced by this country. Bobbitt, in his book, Terror and Consent,31 provides examples of three disasters that could severely test the nation: a bio-engineered flu that subsumes the country, two earthquakes, the largest measuring 7.8 on the Richter Scale in northern California, and the launch of a single Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missile that strikes the United States. Krepinevich’s book, 7 Deadly Scenarios,32 creates a feasible case of what might happen if terrorists managed to smuggle multiple nuclear weapons into the country and if the nation faced a pandemic. As another example, in 2009, the Mid-America Earthquake Center issued a report on the effects of what a 7.7 earthquake might look like if it struck the New Madrid Fault today.
Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region. About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes. Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation, and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines. Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure.
Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone. Extensive damage and substantial travel delays occur in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue, as well as
29 U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, The Macroeconomic Effects of Hurricane Katrina, by Brian W. Cashell and Marc Labonte, CRS Report RS22260 (Washington, DC:
Office of Congressional Information and Publishing, September 13, 2005), 1.
30 Ibid., 5.
31 Philip Bobbit, Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-First Century (New York: Anchor Books, 2009).
32 Andrew F. Krepinevich, 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century (New York: Bantam Books, 2009).
evacuation. Moreover, roughly 15 major bridges are unusable. Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced, and 2 million people seek temporary shelter. Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount.
Any of these events would severely threaten the long-term health of the nation and could rise to the level of an existential threat. For the purposes of this thesis, these types of events inform the definition of what is an “existential catastrophe.” While this thesis will not propose a standard for what the actual parameters of such losses could be, the closest government standard the nation may have to setting the level of losses that may lead to an existential catastrophe may be FEMA’s “Maximum of Maximums”
(MOM) Initiative.33
This was a worst-case scenario based on different hazards that challenges preparedness and overwhelms the response capabilities of every governmental level. The scenario, a no-notice event, contemplated the impact of at least 7 million population and 25,000 square miles, and involving several states and FEMA regions. It results in 190,000 fatalities in its initial hours, with 265,000 citizens requiring emergency medical attention. There is severe damage to critical infrastructure and key resources, including transportation.34