3.3.1 Complex Adaptive Systems
The study of complex systems looks at large scale systems. A complex system can be defined as one where understanding of system components is not sufficient to understand the behavior of the whole. Rather, emergent system properties become evident as time passes and system components interact [35]. The idea of complex adaptive systems adds the notion that such systems are not static, but change and evolve over time. The study of complex adaptive systems combined ideas from systems thinking with ideas from evolutionary biology and Darwinism to study various dynamics observed in such systems including: self organization, coevolution, and emergence. In particular much of current studies focus on understanding the network nature of many systems and how the networks structure and topology influences adaptation over time [36]. In addition, the role that agents acting independently and with imperfect information have on system adaptation has also been the object of significant interest [37]. Both these concepts and others included in the study of complex adaptive systems are directly related to the study of system transition. However, the filed of complex adaptive systems has been mainly focused on mathematical modeling where as this document is based on a qualitative case study approach. As a result, general ideas from the study of complex adaptive systems can be applied, but the two approaches diverge.
captures many important ideas, but field moved into detailed mathematical modeling which was not the chosen methodology for this work because would have had to pick a much smaller subset of stuff to study.
3.3.2 Socio-technical System Transition
Work on transition dynamics is being conducted at the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions at the Erasmus University in the Netherlands. This work focuses mostly around environmental case studies, but also discusses transition dynamics in general terms. A paper by Rotmans and Kemp introduces the idea that transition occurs at three different levels: the micro, meso, and macro [38]. At the micro level, people make local changes as the system breaks down.
At the meso level there are competing emerging ways of doing things a new way, and finally, at the macro, level one new operating paradigm emerges. While the authors claim that the model can be applied for bottom up and top down transition, it seems to represent a bottom up approach much more accurately and falls short in describing top down transitions.
Both the Rotmans and Kemp paper, as well as another by Van der Brugge [39], introduce the idea that each transition has four phases: predevelopment, take-off, breakthrough, and stabilization. These phases are represented on an S-curve where the level of change in the system is the y-axis and time the x-axis. This idea appears to be borrowed from literature on product development [40]. Van der Brugge also adds the idea that transition can have four different outcomes depending on the level of success of the transition. The possible outcomes include system breakdown, backlash, lock-in, or stabilization at a new operating paradigm.
Finally, Loorbach builds on the work of Rotmans and Kemp by adding the idea that governance occurs at three levels in the system [41]. The three levels correspond to the micro, meso, and macro levels presented by Rotmans and Kemp and are the operational level, the tactical level, and the strategic level. Loorbach states that transition processes and innovation can occur independently at each of these three levels, but unless they interact and reinforce one another
a system level transition will not occur.
While this work looks at transition in large scale systems it does not capture the feedback that occurs in such systems. In addition, other dynamics not captured by this literature were observed as part of this work.
3.3.3 Climate Change and Adaptation
Those studying climate change have a need to predict and analyze the impacts of potential adaptations carried out by effected communities. As part of this work efforts to categorize and differentiate adaptations have been made. In this case adaptation is similar to system transition in that in studied change made.
Smit et al [42] provide an anatomy of adaptation by focusing on several basic questions:
what is the adaptation in response to? Who or what adapts? How does adaptation occur? In answering these questions the authors develop a topology of types of adaptation emerges and they characterize a spectrum of terms used to express four key ideas: purposefulness, timing, temporal scope and spatial scope.
Purposefulness refers to the idea of planned versus unplanned or passive adaptation. In one case, a problem is identified and a response planned and implemented; in the other, adaptation occurs without the awareness of those who change. In socio-technical systems most adapta-tions are planned, but in nature many are autonomous. Timing refers to whether an adaptation occurs in response to a problem that can be observed or one that can only predicted. Temporal scope refers to short term versus long term adaptation, but also pertains to the difference in problems that manifest in a slow cumulative manner and those that are instantaneous. This would be the difference between the slow increase in global temperature and an aviation accident. Spatial scope distinguishes between localized and global adaptations.
Discussion of adaptive capacity or what factors make some communities or regions better able to adapt to climate change also takes place. In particular economic resources, technology,
information and skills, infrastructures, institutions, and equity are listed as important factors influencing adaptive capacity [43]. While this literature refers to these qualities as being possessed by a nation or community the idea can carried over and applied to air transportation.
When financial resources are available to address aviation problems they are likely to be solved more successful. Similarly the availability of skills and information as well as technology allows for an understanding of the changing conditions being faced and for the generation of solutions. Infrastructure and institutions are necessary to direct change, make decisions, and flow through on selected solutions.
While this work does not model system change it did provide a preliminary way to categorize the different types of adaptation that occur.