An important element in achieving IBRD’s financial goals is its ability to minimize the cost of borrowing from capital markets for lending to member countries by using financial instruments, including derivatives. The fair value of these financial instruments is affected by changes in the market environment such as interest rates, exchange rates and credit risk. Fair value is used mainly to assess the performance of the investment trading portfolio, to monitor the results of the EMF, and to manage certain market risks, including interest rate and commercial credit risk for derivative counterparties.
Table 22: Effect of Interest Rates and Credit on IBRD’s Fair Value Income In millions of U.S. dollars
Interest Rate Effect on Fair Value Incomea
Credit Effect on Fair Value Incomeb
As of June 30, 2015 Sensitivityc Sensitivityc
Borrowing portfolio . . . $ 4 $ 50 Loan portfolio . . . (8) (32) EMF . . . (18) * Investment portfolio . . . (1) 3 Total (loss)/gains . . . $(23) $ 21 a. After the effects of derivatives.
b. Excludes CVA and DVA adjustment on swaps.
c. Amount represents dollar change in fair value corresponding to a one basis-point parallel upward shift in interest rates. * Sensitivity is marginal.
Fair value adjustments are recorded on IBRD’s fair value income statement, reflecting the sensitivity of each portfolio to the effect of interest rates and credit movements (Table 23).
Table 23: Summary of Fair Value Adjustments on Non-Trading Portfoliosa In millions of U.S. dollars
For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2015 2014
Borrowing portfolio . . . $ 23 $ 90 Loan portfolio . . . 2,862 1,556 EMF . . . 91 (562)
$2,976 $1,084 a. See Table 26 for reconciliation to the fair value comprehensive basis net income.
Effect of Interest Rates
On a fair value basis, if interest rates increase by one basis point, IBRD would experience an unrealized mark-to- market loss of approximately $23 million as of June 30, 2015 (Table 22).
• Investment Trading Portfolio: After the effects of derivatives, the duration of the investment trading portfolio is less than three months. As a result, the portfolio has a low sensitivity to changes in interest rates, resulting in small fair value adjustments to income.
• Loan and Borrowing Portfolios: In line with IBRD’s financial risk management strategies, the sensitivity of IBRD’s loan and borrowing portfolios to changes in interest rates is small (Figure 24). As noted earlier, IBRD intends to maintain its positions for these portfolios and thus manages these instruments on a cash flow basis. The resulting net unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses on these portfolios, associated with the small sensitivity to interest rates, are therefore not expected to be realized. As of June 30, 2015, the effect of changes in interest rates on these portfolios was marginal.
• EMF: The EMF sensitivity to a one basis point change in interest rates has increased during FY15 to $18 million from $11 million last year. This is as a result of the increase in duration of IBRD’s equity to approximately 5 years as of June 30, 2015 from approximately 3 years as of June 30, 2014. In FY15, the unrealized mark-to-market gains on the EMF position was $91 million.
Figure 24 below provides a further breakdown of how the use of derivatives affects the overall sensitivity of the borrowing, loan, EMF and investment portfolios. For example, for the borrowing portfolio, a one basis point increase in interest rates would result in net unrealized mark-to-market gains of $50 million on the bonds. These would be significantly offset by the $46 million of net unrealized mark-to-market losses on the related swaps, resulting in net unrealized mark-to-market gains of $4 million for the portfolio.
Figure 24: Sensitivity to Interest Rates
Dollar change in fair value corresponding to a one-basis-point upward parallel shift in interest rates. In millions of U.S. dollars
Borrowing Portfolio Loan Portfolio EMF Investment Portfolio
Swaps Bonds -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Loans Swaps -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Swaps -20 -10 0 10 20 -11 -18 -20 -10 0 10 20 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 -0.7 -0.4 -46 -42 50 47 -26 19 -25 18
Effect of Credit
• Investments. IBRD purchases investment-grade securities for its liquid asset portfolio. Credit risk is controlled through appropriate eligibility criteria (Box 7). The overall risk of the investment portfolio is also constrained by a consultative loss limit. In line with these risk management strategies, the potential effect of default risk on IBRD’s investment portfolio is therefore small. The effect of credit changes on the market value of the investment portfolio is relatively limited; a one-basis-point change in the credit spreads of the investment assets would have an estimated impact of about $3 million on the market value of the portfolio. • Borrowings. IBRD does not hedge its own credit. The dollar value change corresponding to a one-basis-point
upward parallel shift in interest rates on IBRD’s own credit relative to LIBOR is about $50 million of unrealized mark-to-market gains. The impact on IBRD’s income statement from credit is positively correlated to credit spreads (Figure 25). The tightening of IBRD’s own credit spreads has a negative effect on IBRD’s income statement. For FY15, the tightening of IBRD’s credit spread resulted in an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $78 million compared to an unrealized mark-to-market gain of $38 million in FY14 due to the widening of its credit spreads.
Figure 25: Impact of IBRD’s Credit Spreads on Income
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
June-08 June-09 June-10 June-11 June-12 June-13 June-14 June-15
Billion U.S Dollars
10 - Year Credit Spread 5 - Years Credit Spread Income Statement Impact
USD funding spreads follows 5 & 10 year discount spreads
• Loans. IBRD’s fair value model represents a hypothetical exit price of the loan portfolio. It incorporates CDS spreads as an indicator of the credit risk for each borrower, after adjusting recovery levels to incorporate institutional experience and assumptions. These assumptions are reviewed annually. The dollar value change corresponding to a one-basis-point parallel rise in CDS rates on the loan portfolio is about $32 million unrealized mark-to-market losses. IBRD does not hedge its sovereign credit exposure but Management assesses its credit risk through a proprietary loan-loss provisioning model. Loan-loss provision represents the probable losses inherent in its accrual and nonaccrual portfolios. As discussed earlier, IBRD’s country credit risk is managed by using individual country exposure limits and by monitoring its credit-risk-bearing capacity. For FY15, IBRD experienced $2.9 billion of net unrealized mark-to-market gains from the loan portfolio, primarily due to $4.2 billion of unrealized mark-to-market gains resulting from the revision of recovery levels, partially offset by $1.1 billion unrealized mark-to-market losses mainly due to the net widening of CDS spreads for several of its borrowing members during the year.
• Derivatives. IBRD uses derivatives to manage exposures to currency and interest rate risks in its investment, loan, and borrowing portfolios, and EMF. It is therefore exposed to commercial counterparty credit risk on these instruments. This risk is managed through:
OStringent selection of commercial derivative counterparties, ODaily marking-to-market of derivative positions, and
The fair value of IBRD’s commercial counterparty credit risk is reflected in the CVA and IBRD’s own credit is reflected in the DVA. The net effect of the CVA and DVA adjustments to IBRD’s balance sheet was positive $21 million on June 30, 2015, as discussed in Section VIII.
Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income
In addition to fair value adjustments on the loan, borrowing, and asset/liability management portfolios, IBRD’s fair value adjustment on the income statement also reflects changes in AOCI, as follows:
• Currency Translation Adjustments mainly represent the translation adjustment on the loan and borrowing portfolios. The net negative currency translation adjustment in FY15 is attributable mainly to the 18% depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar in FY15 (Table 24).
• Unrecognized Pension Adjustmentslargely represent the unrecognized net actuarial gains and losses on benefit plans. Actuarial gains and losses occur when actual results differ from expected results in determining the funded status of the pension plans. Since the pension plans are long term, changes in asset returns and discount rates cause volatility in fair value income. As of June 30, 2015, the pension plans were underfunded by $1.4 billion, net of PEBP assets (see Notes to Financial Statements: Note J—Pension and Other Postretirement Benefits). Given its long term planning horizon for pension plans, Management is focused mainly on ensuring that contributions to pension plans appropriately reflect long-term assumptions about asset returns and discount rates.
Table 24: Summary of Changes to AOCI (Fair Value Basis) In millions of U.S. dollars
For the fiscal years ended June 30, 2015 2014 Variance
Unrecognized net actuarial gains (losses) on benefit plans, net . . . $ 840 $ (424) $ 1,264 Unrecognized net prior service credit (cost) on benefit plans, net . . . 23 (39) 62 Derivatives and hedging transition adjustmenta. . . . (1) (3) 2
Currency translation adjustments . . . (1,032) 292 (1,324) Of which:
Loan portfolio. . . (6,244) 1,251 (7,495) Borrowing portfolio . . . 5,045 (982) 6,027 Net other assets and liabilities . . . 167 23 144 Total . . . $ (170) $ (174) $ 4 a. Amount represents amortization of transition adjustment relating to the adoption of Financial Accounting Standards
Board’s (FASB’s) guidance on derivatives and hedging on July 1, 2000.
Fair Value Results
As non-financial assets and liabilities are not reflected at fair value, IBRD’s equity is not intended to reflect fair value. Under the fair value basis, in addition to the instruments in the investment and borrowing portfolios, and all other derivatives, loans are reported at fair value and all changes in AOCI are also included in fair value net income. Tables 25-27 provide a reconciliation from the reported basis to the fair value basis for both the balance sheet and income statement; Table 27 provides a reconciliation of all fair value adjustments.
Table 25: Condensed Balance Sheet on a Fair Value Basis In millions of U.S. dollars
As of June 30, 2015 As of June 30, 2014 Reported Basis Adjustments Fair Value Basis Reported Basis Adjustments Fair Value Basis Due from banks . . . $ 388 $ 388 $ 3,701 $ 3,701 Investments . . . 49,951 49,951 45,482 45,482 Net loans outstanding . . . 155,040 $870 155,910 151,978 $(2,021) 149,957 Receivable from derivatives . . . 134,325 134,325 154,070 154,070 Other assets . . . 3,521 3,521 3,652 3,652 Total assets . . . $343,225 $870 $344,095 $358,883 $(2,021) $356,862 Borrowings . . . $160,980 $ 8a $160,988 $161,026 $ 2a $161,028
Payable for derivatives . . . 132,324 132,324 146,885 146,885 Other liabilities . . . 11,284 11,284 11,987 11,987 Total liabilities . . . 304,588 8 304,596 319,898 2 319,900 Paid-in capital . . . 15,192 15,192 14,005 14,005 Retained earnings and other equity . . . 23,445 862 24,307 24,980 (2,023) 22,957 Total equity . . . 38,637 862 39,499 38,985 (2,023) 36,962 Total liabilities and equity . . . $343,225 $870 $344,095 $358,883 $(2,021) $356,862 a. Amount represents amortization of transition adjustment relating to the adoption of FASB’s guidance on derivatives and
hedging on July 1, 2000.
Table 26: Reconciliation from Net Income to Income on a Fair Value Comprehensive Basis In millions of U.S. dollars
For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2015 2014 Variance
Net (loss) income from Table 2 . . . $ (786) $ (978) $ 192 Fair value adjustment on loansa. . . . 2,904 1,690 1,214
Changes to AOCI (Table 24) . . . (170) (174) 4 Income on fair value comprehensive basis . . . $1,948 $ 538 $1,410 a. Amount has been adjusted to exclude the provision for losses on loans and other exposures: $10 million release –
Table 27: Fair Value Adjustments, net In millions of U.S. dollars
For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2015 Unrealized gains (losses), excluding realized amountsafrom Table 2 Realized gains (losses) Fair Value Adjustment from Table 26 Other Adjustments Total from Table 23 Borrowing portfolioc . . . . $ 14 $ 10 $ — $ (1)b $ 23 Loan portfolioc. . . . (41) (1) 2,904 — 2,862 EMFd . . . . (659) 750 — — 91
Asset-liability management portfoliod. . . . * — — * —
Client operations portfolio . . . (16) — — 16 — Total . . . $(702) $759 $2,904 $15 $2,976
For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2014 Unrealized gains (losses), excluding realized amountsafrom Table 2 Realized gains (losses) Fair Value Adjustment from Table 26 Other Adjustments Total from Table 23 Borrowing portfolioc . . . . $ 111 $ (19) $ — $ 2b $ 90 Loan portfolioc. . . . (134) — 1,690 1,556 EMFd . . . . (994) 432 — (562)
Asset-liability management portfoliod. . . . (11) — — 11 —
Client operations portfolio . . . (2) — — 2 — Total . . . $(1,030) $413 $1,690 $11 $1,084 a. Includes amounts reclassified to realized mark-to-market gains (losses).
b. Amount represents amortization of transition adjustment relating to the adoption of FASB’s guidance on derivatives and hedging on July 1, 2000, included in AOCI.
c. Includes related derivatives.
d. Included in other derivatives on the condensed Balance Sheet. * Indicates amounts less than $0.5 million.