Feasibility for Technology Suppliers

As far as concerns the technology supply, the analysis disclosed that the level of technology to be made available by the end-user for investigated solutions is different. Indeed, several solutions are generally accessible through a smartphone or a PC connected with the web; others require the installation of on-board units or the possession of smart-cards; some others require no devices from the end-user side (e.g. live travel time information inside vehicles or at transport terminals, biometric personal access control, etc.).

In general terms, higher transferability potential can be expected for those solutions requiring no or limited provision of technology equipment by end-users. Nevertheless the diffusion of smart-phones keeps growing in almost all European countries and their cost is expected to be no longer a barrier. But the availability of PCs and smart-phones is not a guarantee of accessibility to transport solutions when these devices are not connected to the web.

Solutions requiring the availability of internet connection might have low transferability to those zones where internet coverage is low (e.g. rural areas). Additionally their accessibility might be reduced when a traveller is in a foreign country and roaming charges may be prohibitive.

When focusing on the operators’ perspective, the analysis disclosed that some solutions are more demanding in terms of information to be collected, processed and delivered to end-users. It is for example the case for co-modal travel planners, which often require the combination and harmonisation of information provided by different operators.

The quality and nature of existing in-house data sets of different operators might not be compatible as such for a cross-exchange of data and this situation might require further processing and common standards identification, thus limiting the potential of creating multi-modal platforms also in restricted and low budget situations (e.g. rural areas).

Furthermore the analysis disclosed that skills and expertise to develop and/or manage such kind of ICTs applications might be not so commonly available in some zones, thus limiting the transferability potential in these areas.

FINAL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

9 A EUROPEAN ASSESSMENT OF ICT SOLUTIONS

9.1

OBJECTIVES

Based on the findings at local scale from case studies and on knowledge gained from the analysis of ICT transport solutions in the COMPASS Handbook, quantitative modelling has then been used to assess the potential impact of ICT solutions at European scale. The assessment of long-distance ICT solutions is based on quantitative modelling using MOSAIC, the European-wide model developed in the INTERCONNECT FP7 research project, a modal choice and assignment module originally programmed to investigate how upgrading the interconnections between transport networks in Europe impacted on the European transport system.

From a demand side, ICT impacts both on trip substitution (e.g. teleworking, teleconferencing) and on

induced demand for trips (e.g. enlarged personal and business relations supported by ICT inducing trip demand increases). The net impact of ICT in travel induction and substitution is difficult to assess isolated from other social, economic and technologic drivers. What can be stated, however, is that ICT allows for better real-time management of user needs, transport conditions and externalities, creating incentives for more informed user choices and leading to a more efficient transport system. Increase in demand or decrease due to ICTs has not been considered in the COMPASS modelling.

From a supply side, ICT implementation on transport systems results in: efficiency improvements,

mainly through more reliable transport services and vehicles and more efficient traffic management leading to travel time reductions; more efficient infrastructure management, leading to operating cost savings; to the extent infrastructure managers transfer these savings to users, also to travel fees and user cost reduction; and more information to users, increased comfort and convenience, leading to a change in the value of the time perceived by users when travelling7.

ICT impacts have been modelled mostly from a supply-side point of view, since these impacts are to some extent specific to ICT implementation, even if they can be promoted or restricted by adequate market regulation.

User behaviour, policies and technologies such as ICT can be translated into four main sets of input variables:

Ø Commercial and free-flow speeds on road, rail, airport and ferry links, Ø Transport fees for rail, air and ferry links,

Ø Values of time for different types of users,

Ø Interconnectivity costs and times between modes.

The most interesting use of a modelling exercise is to investigate the sensitivity of key indicators at the European level (e.g. total costs reduction, total vehicle-kilometre increases, modal shares, emissions...) in relation to assumptions on the input variables defined according to different scenarios. Three aggregated scenarios of ICT implementation have been defined: low ICT implementation, medium ICT implementation and intensive ICT implementation. Each of the scenarios is defined with a particular set of changes in travel times, travellers’ value of time, operating costs, and fees applied by modes and by modal interconnections and connections to cities, grouped in four main areas: Ø ICT impact on infrastructure managers and service operators,

· optimised infrastructure and service management, · optimised intermodality,

· optimised traffic management.

Ø ICT impact on enhanced user comfort and convenience.

7

It has been analysed in the literature how the value users place on travel time varies depending on trip type, people’s preferences, and travel conditions. The impact of “soft-factors” addressing user comfort and convenience is assessed in COMPASS by testing how the model responds to reductions in users’ value of travel time.

FINAL RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

For modelling purposes, seven scenarios are modelled: mid/high/very high ICT implementation impacts on infrastructure managers and service operators, and mid/high/very high ICT implementation impacts on users, as well as a reference baseline scenario.

The extent to which ICT will affect travel times, travellers’ value of time, operating costs, and fees for long-distance travel depends on the specific ICT system being used and the specific place where it is implemented. ORIGAMI, and previously INTERCONNECT, have reviewed a number of cases in order to get a reference of the magnitudes of impacts, even though these magnitudes are often rough general expectations. Values for the potential ICT impacts have been estimated based on these cases.