- The North Sea and the atmosphere can be cleaned sufficiently by technical emission abatement measures, leaving economic and agricultural production unaffected. However, technical measures cannot solve the problem of nitrate groundwater contamination, since the agricultural losses cannot be prevented by technical means alone.
- Measures seriously affecting agriculture do influence the leaching of nitrates favourably. For the other two problem flows, these measures work out less than adequately, however. Moreover, societal changes are implied that the EC would have great difficulty handling in any time span shorter than a century.
Therefore, a problem abatement scenario should start from the technical measures. These measures are relatively easy to implement and may solve two of the three problems, even if they are not realized with 100% effectiveness. For a solution of the groundwater problem, there is no escaping from significant changes in agricultural production. There is no need for measures as dramatic as abolishing the use of fertilizer as a whole, or going but a bit of both is inevitable for a solution of the groundwater problem. Just how much is difficult to ascertain: the immission, the leaching flow, cannot readily be translated into terms of the environmental quality standard, namely the resulting changes in the nitrate concentration of groundwater. Too little is known with regard to groundwater stocks and flows. To obtain an impression, the measure package specified below aims at halving the leaching flow. In order to establish this, the following assumptions have been made:
Socio-economic factors remain unchanged.
2. Technical reductions of and industrial and stable emissions by 90% are assumed.
3. Full application of sewage treatment has been assumed according to the scheduled EC-policy package.
4. Application of chemical fertilizer is reduced to 60% of the current level. 5. The stockbreeding/livestock production sector is halved.
6. The remaining animal manure is assumed to be taken up by crop more efficiently and to be applied in a manner substantially reducing ammonia emissions.
The results of these assumptions can be seen in Table 8.10. In Figures 8.5 and 8.6 and Table the overview diagrams and table, the compromise package is also included.
Table Nitrogen flow* in EU as a of a
package. Long-term situation, in ktonnes
and percentages.
current regime compromise package
problem
dep. to non-agr. soils 1285 leaching to groundwater 4502 inflow to North Sea ocean) 1503
Economic indicators production 14444 agricultural efficiency (N) 25.2% economic efficiency (N) 30.4% EC (N) 94.4% 323 2369 529 7512 43.7% 96.6% (-75%) (-47%) (-65%) (-48%) 2%)
As a result of this package, the reduction targets for atmospheric deposition of and the anthropogenic inflow of N-compounds into the North Sea are more than achieved, and leaching of nitrates to groundwater is reduced by almost If this is still insufficient, and that
is something that cannot be ascertained at the present moment, then at least it represents a great step forward. Still, the changes implied in this measure package are by no means negligible. Apart from a rise in agricultural efficiency, a reduction of agricultural output by almost 50% would be indicated, as well as a shift in the consumption of food products toward less animal and more vegetable products. It appears that a combination of conforming to environmental standards and agricultural self-sufficiency cannot be obtained at a lower price at the moment.
Table 8.11 Nitrogen flows and related indicators as a result of various assumed regimes.
EU, long-term equilibrium
and
budgets economic inflow economic outflow - air - water - - in - groundwater regime 5710 13079 - 1517 5478 - 961 scheduled EC policy 17841 7028 10813 - 1068 - 1824 5010 - 486 fodder import 5669 13181 - 1517 5544 - 984 technical package 14243 7222 7021 - 1020 - 467 4011 - 226 zero 9056 1463 7593 - 1753 - 615 - 1506 1958 - 750 - 1208 zero stock- breeding 9052 1999 7053 - 1816 - 388 - 1508 1690 - 772 - 918 c o m p r o package 10830 4731 6099 - 884 - 1070 - 1761 2839 - 471 indicators: flows on non-agr. »oils to gr. inflow to North Sea
ocean) 1285 4502 1503 1058 4525 796 1315 4560 1514 383 3785 298 667 1052 536 918 1057 323 2369 529 Economic indicators crop/gnu« prod. (N) (N) EC (N) 14444 25.2% 30.4% 944% 14293 25.7% 39.4% 94.2% 15795 249% 102.6% 14444 30.7% 50.7% 94.3% 1771 23.3% 16.2% 33.2% 3292 76.9% 22.1% 100.4% 7512 42.6% 43.7% 96.6%
Conclusions and discussion Conclusions
Stopping the import of agricultural products for use as fodder from outside the EU has only a impact on the environmental problems related to nitrogen compounds. Depending on the
assumptions, the changes may be either slightly for the better or slightly for the worse. extreme technical programme, including air emission reduction by 90%, treatment for all
and household wastewater, and centralized manure treatment for of all animal might solve two of the three problems completely. The problem of nitrates leaching to toe groundwater will be reduced by about 15%, and therefore probably remain largely
Resolution of the groundwater problem requires radical measures in the agricultural sector. Two
173
possible directions have been scanned by calculating the impacts of two extreme policies: (1) returning agriculture to the age by banning the use of fertilizer, and (2) increasing agricultural efficiency in the only radical way possible by eliminating livestock production altogether. Both options seem effective: the first through reducing the agricultural nitrogen cycle as a whole to a tenth of its current throughput, and the other by tripling agricultural efficiency. Both options reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater to approximately 20% of the current level. However, the implications of such extremes for society would be severe. In the one case, agricultural output is reduced to a tenth of the current level as well, making the EU largely dependent on imported food. In the other case, the adoption of a completely lifestyle by the EU population is implied. Apart from that, major parts of the agricultural sector would disappear in both cases.
To solve all three problem flows, an abatement package comprising both technical measures and major agricultural changes is required. Such a package would be less drastic than the extreme options mentioned above, but would still involve radical interventions in agricultural practice.
Nitrogen compounds, although they cause environmental problems, fulfil an indispensable function as nutrients. The production and consumption of food is the cause of the environmental problems: as long as the current EU population is fed with the current EU agricultural products, at least the problem of groundwater pollution with nitrates appears to be inevitable.
Developing a solution for these problems within the EU is an example of an unavoidable clash between the economy and the environment. Atmospheric deposition of and the anthropogenic N-input to the North Sea might be solved by technical means. For these problems it is a mere question of being prepared to pay a amount of money, an argument that might even be won by the environmental side. Cleaning up the groundwater is another matter, however, and implies changing the whole nature of food production and consumption. To solve this problem, the EU must live partly on imported food, thereby in point of fact expanding its effective area and exporting its environmental problems. The other approach is to reduce the consumption of animal products substantially in the name of sustainability; of this option it can be stated in its favour that at least the EU population would be keeping its problems to itself. There seems to be little scope for less radical scenarios.
It is then a question of choice: do we choose to solve the problems to the degree laid down in the various agreements, or do we choose to keep food production and consumption more or less as they are at present? In the past, we have come to accept the fact that we cannot drink untreated surface water as a consequence of the pollution level that goes hand in hand with a population of our size. Now, we may choose to accept having to purify groundwater before using it as drinking water rather than abolishing agriculture as we know it. For the present, any proposal for increasing the environmental quality standard level of 50 nitrates/1 groundwater would represent an arguable case. For the future however, with an ever-growing world and EU population, the changes in agricultural style and food patterns described above might have to be reconsidered. If a substantial increase in the efficiency of agricultural nitrogen use by technical means remains impossible, such changes may constitute the only option for solving the environmental problems of the future.
8.2.11 Summary
compounds, the atmospheric deposition of N-compounds have been investigated by means of a Substance Flow Analysis (SFA). In all three cases, the production and import of fertilizer has come up as the major source. A package of internationally agreed or intended measures leads in the right direction but does not satisfactorily solve the three problems. In order to obtain a picture of the changes in the anthropogenic nitrogen flows needed for a solution, the effectiveness of several more radical interventions is calculated.
A selection of rigorous technical measures is expected to reduce the atmospheric deposition of N- to a level that seems acceptable for the EU as a whole, and will reduce the anthropogenic input of N-compounds into the North Sea well below the agreed level of 50% of the present load. The third problem, the pollution of groundwater with nitrates, would still be unsolved.
Resolution of this last problem requires very radical changes in the agricultural sector, reducing agricultural output substantially. Two directions are explored by assessing the impacts of the extremes: the terminating of industrial fertilizer use to combat the problems at the source, and the abolishing of the entire stock breeding sector to radically increase the agricultural efficiency. These changes do contribute to a solution of the groundwater problem, but imply either greater dependence on imported food, or a major change in food consumption patterns, from animal toward vegetable products. Providing the current EU population with its present diet is simply not compatible with the absence of environmental problems. The question then arises, how does acceptance of the draconic measures required to solve an environmental problem weigh up against acceptance of the fact of having to cope with contaminated groundwater.
8.2.12 References
BAKER, D.E. & LP. SENFT (1992). Advances in Agricultural Nutrient Runoff Controls. Water Science and 26 (12), pp. 2685-94, illustr.
BOHLOOL, B.B., J.K. LADHA, & T. GEORGE (1992). Biological nitrogen fixation for sustainable agriculture: a perspective. Plant & Soil 141, pp. illustr.
H. & K.W. VAN DER HOEK (1992). Centrale mestverwerking (Centralized Manure Treatment). RIVM Report no. 736301021, The Netherlands, iii + 19 pp.
BRANDENBURG, L.M. ENGELS, M.W. DE LANGE, VELDT, C.
(1992). in mondiaal perspectief (Nutrient Policy in a
Worldwide Perspective). Student Group Report, Centre of Envir. Science, Leiden University, pp., illustr.
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES (1991). Development and Future of the Common Agricultural Policy, informally known as the MacSharry Plan. Brussels/Luxembourg,
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Towards a
European Community Programme of Policy and Action in relation to the Environment and Sustainable Development, informally known as the Fifth Action Programme. COM(92)23 vol.11,
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES (1992b). The State of the Environment in the European Community. COM(92)23 176 pp., illustr.
176
P.F. (1992). Sustainable Agriculture - a Valid Alternative. Outlook on
21 (1) pp. 5-12.
H. WELCK & J. ZEDDIES (1992). Stickstoffbilanzen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe - Einstieg in eine ökologische Buchführung? (Nitrogen budgets for Agricultural Practice - Start of an Ecological Bookkeeping?) Berichte 70, pp.
A. (1992). Case Studies on the Flow and Supply of Nitrogen in Alternative Farming in Sweden. I. 1981-1987. Agriculture and Horticulture 9, pp.
illustr.
HUPPES, E. VAN DER VOET, W.G.H. VAN DER NAALD, G.H. & P.
MAXSON (1992). New Market-Oriented Instruments for Environmental Policies. EC Env. Policy series, Graham & Ltd. London, xxvii + 200 pp., illustr.
HUELE, R., R. & E. VAN DER VOET (1993). Natural Resource Accounting, the search for a method. Ministry of Environment Environmental Strategy Series 1993/3, The Hague, The Netherlands, 74 pp., illustr.
INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION FOR THE PROTECTION OF THE RHINE AGAINST POLLUTION (1987). Rhine Action Programme. 25 pp.
ISERMANN, K. (1993). Territorial, Continental and Global Aspects of C, N, P and S Emissions from Agricultural Ecosystems. In: Wollast, F.T Mackenzie & L. Chou (Eds) (1993): Interactions of C, N, P, and S Cycles and Global Change. NATO Series I Vol. 4, Springer Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg, pp 79-121, illustr.
MINISTERIAL DECLARATION of the second international conference on the protection of the North Sea, 24 - 25 November 1987, London, 25 pp., issued by the Ministry of Transport and Public Works of The Netherlands.
MINISTERIAL DECLARATION of the third international conference on the protection of the North Sea, November 1990, The Hague, 198 pp., issued by the Ministry of Transport and Public Works of The Netherlands.
MINISTRY of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries of The Netherlands (1993). Notitie Mest- en Ammoniakbeleid derde fase (Document on Manure and Ammonia Policy, 3rd phase). The Hague, The Netherlands, v + 40 pp.
RIVM (National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection) (1992). The Environ- ment in Europe: a Global Perspective. RIVM report no. 481505001, The Netherlands,
pp., illustr.
VOET, E. VAN DER, R. KLEIJN & H.A. UDO DE HAES (1994). Nitrogen in the European Union - Origins and Proposed Solutions. Environmental Conservation x(x) pp yy-yy, illustr.
CHAPTER 9 EVALUATION OF THE CASE STUDIES
9.1 Introduction
As stated before, applying in practice a theoretically developed methodology serves various purposes. In the first place, there is feedback to the methodology development itself: practical applications force one to take every step in a calculated way. During the research for this thesis, this confrontation of theory with practice has led to several general conclusions regarding the quantification step of the SFA framework. This concerns data availability and quality on the one and the translation of a bookkeeping overview into a (static or dynamic) model on the other hand. Three issues have been identified as very important for this translation:
the choice of the balancing items the choice of the fixed variables
the derivation of the distribution coefficients.
In Section 9.2, these conclusions regarding the quantification step drawn from the case studies are presented.
A second aspect concerns the case studies themselves, as presented in Chapters 7 and 8. In Appendices 2 (cadmium) and 3 (nitrogen), a sensitivity analysis has been performed. In Section 9.3, the results of this sensitivity analysis are summarized. The main question here is: what, in retrospect, is the reliability of the outcome of the case studies? The evaluation has been made with respect to:
the data used in the bookkeeping system, their margins of error and the consequences of that for the statements that can be based on the quantified overview
the above mentioned translation of the bookkeeping overview into the model as made in the case studies
the consequences of bookkeeping errors for the modelling outcome and the conclusions that have been drawn from that.
In Section 9.4, finally, a first attempt is made to define a general setup for a sensitivity analysis for SFA studies, based on the conclusions of 9.2 and 9.3.
Reflections on the of the overview of flows and stocks
Setting up a bookkeeping system
A bookkeeping system consists of statistical and monitoring data. The most important issues, are the availability and quality of the data.
A very important source for the economic flows of many substances is trade and production which deliver data regarding the amounts of raw materials and products being imported, and produced. The main uncertainty concerns the accuracy with which companies fulfill their obligation to provide the statistics offices with their data. The level of this uncertainty is unknown, but most probably minor since no important balance deficiencies occur. The Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics estimates a level of uncertainty well within 5% oral communication). For case studies on the EU level, these statistics will continue to he useful in the future. For case studies at the country level within the EU, they will not. Since no more physical trade data are collected for EU countries. Translations must now be made from monetary data, with, inevitably, a severe concurrent quality loss. This is a major setback for