THE FINAL PHASE

The Kashmir operation, Sher Khan wrote, had begun with the Poonch uprising and the tribal invasion. The initial aim was to try to ‘create a situation in which the maharaja would be forced to accept a plebiscite in the State.’24 The accession of Kashmir to India and the arrival of Indian troops had changed that situation. The objective changed then to make operations difficult and expensive for India so she would ‘come to agree to a free and unfettered plebiscite.’ The original expectation had been that if the struggle continued till December then this objective would have been achieved. Later this date was extended to the end of March 1948. Although the ‘Azad Forces can be said to have carried out this task very successfully’, Sher Khan (General Tariq) correctly surmised that the political object had not been achieved.

Operations had been carried out ‘on an extremely improvised basis and under heavy administrative difficulties.’ He considered that it would not be possible to a carry on in this fashion and on the same scale beyond the end of April, presumably when the snow would have started melting.

He then proposed for this ‘final phase’ of operations that the scope and objective of the Azad Forces needed to be redefined ‘to hold the territory now

5 8 CROSSED SWORDS

under their control at any cost [original underline] and prevent India from securing a military decision.’ This he felt would not be possible without the Pakistan Army openly joining the conflict. However, the introduction of the Pakistan Army ‘is not desirable nor in the best interest of Pakistan,’ he stated.

So, he asked for finance, food, clothing and equipment for the Azad Forces

‘on a high national emergency priority.’

Sher Khan’s appreciation of the military situation included four main factors. First, India was seen to have introduced into Kashmir two complete divisions and corps troops numbering some 10,000 men. He estimated that the daily supply requirement of this force from Pathankot to Jammu was of the order of 300 tons, plus additional supplies for the civilian population. All this traffic was going through the unmetalled Pathankot-Kathua-Jammu road which was ‘likely to be unusable during inclement weather, as was the case during the rains in the second week of March.’ Therefore, the Indian Army’s ability to undertake large scale operations would depend on the ability of its administrative machinery to meet these demands.

The second factor that Sher Khan identified was the efficient operation of communications and maintaining of mobility and momentum. Of the three forms of communications; road, rail, and air, only the last two were available in Kashmir and both were vulnerable to the elements and to hostile actions.

Therefore, he deduced that India ‘will make every possible effort to achieve an early decision, military and political.’

He then evaluated the relative strengths of the Indian and Azad Forces, with the Indian Army having ‘an overwhelming superiority’ in weapons, equipment, organization and resources. Faced with such odds, the Azad Forces ‘will not be able to and must not be expected to hold ground.’ In his view, ‘they should...avoid staged battles’

The fourth factor was the weather, which had been bad. Snow had hindered the build up of Indian forces in Kashmir but also constrained the ability of Azad Forces to infiltrate around Indian flanks and interfere with their line of communications as well as extend operations to other parts of the valley. ‘The approach of summer will enable both sides to intensify operations,’ he wrote.

In Jammu, however, even in winter the snow had not been a major factor and he expected the Indian Army to launch a bigger effort than the one they had launched against Noashera in March. Yet, he felt that ‘the Pathans who have been the biting teeth of the Azad Forces cannot stand upto the heat and are likely to disappear gradually from this front.’ His conclusion was that the Azad Forces needed to expand operations into other parts of Kashmir to prevent India from concentrating on any one sector. Meanwhile, more locals needed to take over the role of the Pathans and ‘contain the Indian forces’ in the south by interfering with their lines of communication and preventing a link up with the Poonch garrison.

THE FIRST KASHMIR WAR 5 9

Discussing the time factor, Sher Khan thought that the best period for operations in Kashmir from the administrative point of view was from April through June, or until the monsoons broke. He did not expect the Indian Army to be able to build up for another offensive for at least another fortnight.

If the Azad Forces were to open other fronts, they could dissipate Indian efforts. If they could keep operations going till August, ‘without [the]

Indian [s] having achieved a military decision, I believe that they will lose the KASHMIR war for economic and administrative reasons.’ He relied on the vulnerability of the Indian line of communication in the south that ran parallel to the front for some 60 miles through hilly and broken terrain, leaving open the possibility of harassment by Azad Forces. In sum, Sher Khan struck a positive cord by deducing that normally time would have favoured India but given the ‘special economic circumstances of KASHMIR, geographical conditions and inadequate communications, it would appear...

[that time] would be in favour of Azad Forces, provided they can successfully prevent [the] Indian Army from achieving a military decision during the next three months, which it is possible to do.’

Finally, he focussed on Poonch, which had been isolated by the Azad Forces since December 1947. It had a garrison of one brigade strength and approximately 20,000 non-Muslim inhabitants who had been kept supplied by Indian Dakota aircraft. However, since 27 March, the landing ground had been under gun fire and no aircraft had been able to land. The options open to India in Poonch were (as identified by Sher Khan):

• Air drops and supply by planes that could land in Poonch, but letting the garrison fend for itself. Though tactically sound, Sher Khan thought this was not likely to be the course of action since, ‘apart from the morale and prestige point of view, it’s a running sore for them.’ Little did he know that he was almost reading his enemy commander’s mind.25

• Accept safe conduct that had been offered to them. In his view, the Indian army would be ‘only too pleased to do so’, but it appeared that the Indian government did not agree to this.

• Try to link the town up with ground forces. This was seen as the most likely course of action.

Sher Khan then proceeded to further penetrate the enemy’s brains by exploring possibilities for action open to them. The nearest troops were in Uri but he believed the garrison there was not strong enough for such an operation. The Noashera sector had the required troops but the sector was about 50 miles away and any movement would create a long line of communication through broken territory, subject to attacks. Another option

60 CROSSED SWORDS

would involve sending a strong column over the difficult Pir Panjal Pass at the same time as the move from Noashera.

India had a number of other options open to it as well, according to Sher Khans analysis. It could mount an attack from Uri against Domel, a desirable target, but it did not have enough troops for this venture. It could relieve Poonch by a combined offensive from Noashera and the valley over the Pir Panjal: the most likely course. It could also launch an attack from Akhnoor to capture Bhimber, thus securing its line of communications. And finally, it could launch an offensive from Noashera to capture Mirpur but this was not likely since they would need troops for the relief of Poonch. In retaliation, the Azad Forces would need to intensify attacks against the lines of communication and extend operations to divert attention away from Poonch to other parts of the state.

To forestall Indian moves, Sher Khan concluded, the Azad Forces should open other fronts in the state, forcing India to spread thin its troops and thus prevent a build up for an offensive in Poonch. His plan then was to extend and intensify operations in the valley from Muzaffarabad and Gilgit and to attack the lines of communications and destroy transport from Akhnoor to Noashera, Jammu to Srinagar, and from Uri to Srinagar. Their motto, he noted, should continue to be ‘a lorry a day keeps the Hindu away.’ In all of this, the Azad forces were to avoid staged battles. At least one thousand additional rifles were to be issued to the forces in the Rajauri-Riasi sector ‘to enable them to contain the Indian Army in the event of possible dis­

appearance (sic) of Pathans from this front.’ Overall, the upbeat theme of Sher Khan’s earlier reports continued in this assessment, even as he waited for the Indians’ next moves.