V J C1 IR4 Master Plan — Phased Development Strategy
C2.3 FORECAST DATA
There are essentially three parameters that need to be covered in the annual traffic forecast: (a) passengers and baggage volumes; (b) cargo; and (c) aircraft movements. To obtain this data will require a clear understanding of the airline user requirements and calculated usage of the facility.
C2.3.1 Passenger and Baggage
The originating, domestic and transfer passenger volumes will be used to determine the planning requirements of airport terminal facilities and support infrastructure. The number of passengers collectively within the building will be derived from the flight schedules and corresponding load factors which collectively shall provide the volumes of the passengers within the building at any instance in time.
Since various categories of passenger traffic will use different facilities in the airport, it will be necessary to forecast each passenger category separately in order to determine future requirements for passenger facilities. Accordingly, IATA forecasts three types of passenger traffic:
•
Embarking.•
Disembarking.•
Direct Transit.These categories are further subdivided between scheduled and non-scheduled passenger traffic, for which separate forecasts should be produced.
Following the implementation of 24-hour landside shopping, the terminal retail complex will also see growth from the local community and casual visitors to the airport. This volume of the general public should be added to the volume attributed to the traveling passenger.
The baggage forecast data will be derived by multiplying the passenger processing rates by the passenger bag ratios for the various categories of passengers within the terminal. In practice the following steps are used in this regards:
Step 1 — Flight Schedule Determined for Design Year. Step 2 — Flight Loadings Determined.
Step 3 — Number of Passengers Witnessed Determined as Passenger Rate/Hr.
Step 4 — Passenger Bag Ratio(s) Applied to Passenger Rate(s) to determine Total Bag Rate/Hr.
For existing airports, airport planners should use passenger to bag ratios determined through surveys at the relevant airport. In the absence of this data the following bag to passenger design ratios should be adopted. It should be noted that this is only useful as a first cut forecast for the master plans where the data is not readily available. Planners are advised to carefully review this data at subsequent and more detailed design levels.
Table C2-1: Typical Bag to Passenger Ratios for High Level Forecasting Purposes
Type of Pax.
Traffic Europe Asia/Africa USA
Rest of the World
International Pax. 1.0-1.5 Bags/Pax 2 Bags/Pax 2 Bags/Pax 1.5 Bags/Pax
Domestic Pax. 0.5-1.0 Bags/Pax 1.0-2.0 Bags/Pax 1.0 Bags/Pax 1.0 Bags/Pax
C2.3.2 Commercial Aircraft Movement
The forecast of aircraft movements (i.e., aircraft landing and take-off movements) determines the planning requirements of airport airside facilities.
Aircraft movements include all commercial scheduled operations. Non-scheduled, general aviation and military aircraft movements usually have little influence on the planning of runway and apron capacity. These are generally excluded from forecasts unless their impact is deemed appropriately significant.
C2.3.3 Cargo
When forecasting the perceived cargo tonnage it will be important to distinguish between the categories of cargo goods. Cargo is the combination of freight and mail and these in turn are comprised as follows:
Freight Includes express and diplomatic bags but not a passenger's checked baggage. Mail Refers to correspondence and other objects tendered by and intended for delivery
to postal administrations.
In the forecast, the combined number of tonnes of freight and mail handled at the airport are taken into consideration. Also, in general, scheduled and non-scheduled cargo traffic are considered together, as both are handled in the same cargo terminal area.
The forecast should differentiate between passenger and all-cargo operations, as each will have a specific influence in respect of apron use. Express freight, for example, will have a dedicated facility and apron area just as will perishable goods, and so it will be necessary to understand the split between these categories of cargo volume.
Some of the key factors that influence the demand in cargo traffic are economic growth (both on a regional and global level) as well as the costs associated with air cargo.
The GDP indicator has demonstrated a strong link to demand for aviation services, in cargo as well as passenger transport. On a regional analysis there must be an assessment of the catchment area, and what type of market segment can be captured if there is competition for the same service. As the global marketplace expands, there is also a need to assess factors on the movement of goods on a broader base, such as domestic trade policies, elimination of tariffs, etc., on a worldwide level.
Other factors, such as the 'Just in time' philosophy, increase the demand for a faster air cargo service. The growth in e-commerce has also produced a new demand segment for the movement of products and the dynamic tracking of goods. Forecasters should seek data from freight forwarding and freight processing companies to understand market trends and cargo type distinctions.
For airport planning purposes, cargo forecasts must be broken down into sectors differentiating the means by which the cargo is transported:
•
Passenger and Combi Aircraft.•
All-Cargo Aircraft.It is essential to make this split in the forecast as each sector has different operating requirements, such as: apron requirements; type of terminal facility; type of aircraft stand; etc. This type of information is crucial to the planning of cargo facilities where an understanding of client's usage is required.
The combined tonnage of freight and mail handled at the airport should also be taken into consideration in a cargo forecast. Scheduled and non-scheduled cargo traffic are generally considered together, as both are handled in the same cargo terminal area. It's generally not recommended to produce a cargo forecast by origin-destination or by route area, but rather by inbound and outbound cargo traffic.
Because the distinction between freight carried on aircraft and freight carried on trucks is not always clear, any analysis of cargo traffic must be made with great caution. There are cases when freight
IATA
Master Planning
tonnes carried on trucks are included in air freight statistics due to this freight being covered by the same airwaybill as pure air freight.
C2.3.5 Aircraft movements
There are two ways of projecting passenger aircraft movements. One way is to project an average number of passengers per flight and apply this parameter to the projection of passenger traffic to derive the resulting movements.
The second way is to project the passenger load factor and the average aircraft size as two separate steps. This approach provides a more solid projection of aircraft movements than the first one, but it requires the construction of passenger load factors for the base year for each route area. These are then projected for the whole forecast period and must reflect the potential room for improvements in airline productivity.
The next step is to apply the projections of the load factors to passenger traffic projections in order to derive the projection of total seats. Following this, forecasters will need to project the average aircraft size to reflect as much as possible the expected evolution of airline fleet mix as well as airlines' strategy to either intensify frequencies, to the detriment of aircraft size, or utilise bigger aircraft if the level of frequencies is found to be suitable. In applying the average aircraft size to the projection of total seats, we obtain a projection of aircraft movements.
It becomes important that, within each route area to be forecast, the projected evolution of aircraft mix by size category remains compatible with the projected evolution of the average aircraft size which is expected to take place. For example, if one projects the average aircraft size to decline during a five-year period, the projection of the mix during that period should not reflect an increased share of aircraft of the higher size categories.
In regard to cargo aircraft movements, the forecast needs a different approach. It should be based on the projection of the share of total cargo likely to be carried on these cargo aircraft, and determining an assumed average number of tonnes per flight, this would lead to the construction of cargo aircraft movements. This however requires that the statistics are made available by the airport authorities in question. A distinction in cargo tonnage carried on the passenger aircraft versus cargo carried on cargo aircraft is required.
C2.4 SEGMENTATION