Fossil production

In the 2050 whole scenario the total fossil fuel generation capacity has decreased to 293.3 GW. In the 2030 scenario and all the previous scenarios the total fossil fuel capacity was 442.4 GW.

2050 Whole

Scenario Total Fossil Production(TWh) Fossil utilisation time(h)

Limited grid 450.03 1534.40

Infinite grid 74.81 255.07

Table 30 Fossil power production and utilisation time, limited and infinite grid

The total production from fossil fuels in the 2050 whole scenario is 450.025 TWh. In the 2030 base scenario this production was 1393.35 TWh. In the 2050 wind and solar scenario the total production was 489.93 TWh. The fact that the fossil production is lower in the 2050 whole scenario than the 2050 wind and solar scenario means that reducing the fossil capacity and increasing the biomass capacity helps to reduce the total fossil production. The fossil production is much lower with infinite grid than with limited grid, proving that removing some of the bottlenecks between countries lead to better utilization of renewables and thus less need for production from fossil plants.

The duration curve for the 2050 whole scenario together with the duration curve for the 2030 base scenario is shown in the figure below.

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200

'DE' 'IT' 'FR' 'ES' 'NL' 'BE' 'GR' 'BG' 'AT' 'DK'

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Figure 67 Duration curves for 2050 whole scenario and 2030 base scenario

The duration curve of the fossil production for the 2050 whole scenario has a different shape compared to the duration curve for the 2030 base scenario. The 2030 base scenario curve falls slower than the 2050 whole scenario curve for most of the hours, but falls suddenly to a lower level towards the lowest production level. The maximum fossil output in the 2050 whole scenario was 215.8 GW, which is 73.6% of the installed capacity. In the 2030 base scenario the maximum production was 72.67% of the installed capacity. Due to the decrease in installed fossil capacity the maximum capacity is about the same percentage of the installed capacity for both scenarios. In the 2050 wind and solar scenario the amount of installed fossil power was higher and the maximum output was 244.1GW, which is higher than in the 2050 whole scenario, showing that at the hours when the most fossil power is needed the production is lower because of the reduction in installed capacity. The mean production in the 2050 whole scenario is 55.93GW, which is 12.6% of the installed capacity.

The diagram below shows the fossil utilisation time for the 2050 whole scenario together with the utilisation times for the 2030 base scenario and the 2050 wind and solar scenario.

Figure 68 Fossil utilisation time in 2050 whole, 2050 wind and solar and 2030 base scenario

0.00 1000.00 2000.00 3000.00 4000.00 5000.00 6000.00 7000.00 8000.00

'DE' 'ES' 'FR' 'IT' 'GB' 'NL' 'BE' 'DK' 'GR' 'SE' 'PL' 'AT' 'BG' 'PT' 'RO' 'IE' 'FI'

Fossil utilisation time(h)

Fossile utilisation time 2030

Fossile utilisation time 2050 High Wind and Solar Fossile utilisation time 2050 Whole

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The diagram shows that the utilisation time has decreased a lot for most countries compared to the 2030 base scenario. For Bulgaria and Romania the utilisation time has increased compared to the 2030 base scenario. For most countries the utilisation of fossil in the 2050 whole scenario is higher than the 2050 Wind and Solar scenario. This is natural since the capacity is about half compared to the 2050 wind and solar scenario. Even though the utilisation time has increased the production is still lower for the 2050 whole scenario than the 2050 wind and solar scenario. The diagram shows that Sweden never use any of its installed fossil power and Denmark only use fossil power in the 2030 base scenario.

4.3.5 Prices

The mean prices for the 2050 whole scenario is shown below together with the mean prices for the 2030 base scenario and the 2050 wind and solar scenario.

The 2030 base scenario has the highest price for all the countries which is natural since there is less installed wind and solar in this scenario. For most of the countries the mean price is higher for the 2050 whole scenario than the 2050 wind and solar scenario. Denmark is the only country where the mean price for the 2050 wind and solar scenario is higher than the mean price for the whole scenario. The reason why the mean price for most countries is higher with the 2050 whole scenario is that the production capacity is lower in this scenario, since both the nuclear power and the fossil power is reduced, and the reduction of these sources are about twice the increase in biomass powered plants. Especially the reduction of nuclear power will lead to an increase in mean price for the 2050 whole scenario compared to the 2050 wind and solar scenario. It is difficult to say exactly why Denmark has a higher price in 2050 wind and solar scenario, but part of the explanation could be that Denmark had no fossil production in either of the two scenarios and no installed nuclear power, so these changes will not influence the prices as much. In addition Denmark has 4.16 GW of biomass installed in 2030 which is increased with about 3 times in the 2050 whole scenario.