The frequency and intensity of droughts have increased in the last few decades

Apart from an abundance of hearsay reports of fish, birds and insects expanding beyond their normal ranges a quantified assessment of shifts in range boundaries and phenology (seasonally-linked characteristics such as time date of flowering, awakening from hibernation and arrival of migrants) for a range of species has been undertaken by Parmesan and Yohe

(2003). They have examined the recorded range boundaries of many species of birds, butterflies and alpine herbs and found that there has been a shift northward, or upward in the case of alpine communities, of 6.1 km per decade. Analysis of the phenological characteristics of a wide range of herbs, trees, shrubs, birds, butterflies and amphibians also shows that change has occurred, notably an earlier timing of spring by 2.3 days. Thus, global warming is already affecting many species. In a similar study, Root et al.

(2003) examined the changes in the phenology of 143 species of plants and animals and found that more than 80 percent had shifted in a manner consistent with climatic warming; in species of the temperate zone a shift in spring phenology of 5.1 days was apparent. Such results reflect the close relationship between climate, the capacity of organisms to respond and the possibility that ecosystems will alter substantially in the future as organisms react at species level and new assemblages of species emerge.

8.1.4 Uneven development and wealth distribution

Carbon resource development and acquisition as well as carbon flows vary in space and time. The rise and fall of civilizations throughout prehistory and history have been linked in some way to the control of these (and other) resources because food and fuel are so fundamental in human societies. The patterns of carbon control in the past per se have not, or possibly cannot, be determined. Present day (2004-2005) patterns of development and degree of wealth and poverty can be measured in various ways and there are important links with other attributes of society such as levels of education, health care, longevity, type of employment etc.

Figure 8.3 is a simple measure of poverty; it shows the proportion of people by region who live on less than $1 per day and how that proportion has changed in the last 20 years. It also shows how uneven development is globally. Approximately 1.1 x 10⁹ people, i.e. 20 percent of the world’s population, live on less than $1 a day; a further 20 percent live on less than

$2 per day (United Nations, 2004). The greatest decline of numbers of people in the former situation in the last 20 years has been in China, East and South Asia where industrialization is occurring rapidly. This also reflects a substantial increase in carbon harnessing and consumption. In contrast, the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa has remained largely unchanged. The World Bank (2004b) makes the following observation

“Growth in India and China is expected to reduce the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day from 28.3 percent in 1990 to 12.5 percent by 2015. But many countries will be left behind – particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates are already very high and the situation is unlikely to improve if current trends continue. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for half of the world’s poor by 2015, compared to 19 percent in 1990”. Indeed by 2000 the number of people living on less than

$1 a day in Sub-Saharan Africa actually rose to 314 million, i.e. 47 percent of the population. Thus the gap between those who have and those who have not appears set to continue for some time to come. Mechanisms to redress this unevenness will require efforts on the part of all nations, including those who are less wealthy (see Section 8.2.6).

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2001 70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Latin America and Carribean

Middle East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia East Asia and Pacific

China South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Percentage of people living on < $1 per day

Figure 8.3. Patterns of world poverty 1980 to 2001 (based on World Bank, 2004b)

Another means of measuring development involves resource consumption and relates to the indices, such as the ecological footprint, discussed in Section 6.4. Overall, the global ecological footprint of humanity is not only increasing but is also in excess of the Earth’s natural capital.

Consequently, the current situation is unsustainable in the longer term. This situation has recently been examined by Diamond (2005a) who states that

“On average, each citizen of the UK, Western Europe, the US, and Japan consumes 32 times more resources such as fossil fuels, and puts out 32 times more waste, than do inhabitants of the Third World”. These nations have domesticated more carbon than any others; they not only consume their own carbon but also much of that produced elsewhere; they also produce more carbon emissions as carbon flows predominantly from the poor to the rich.

For example, the USA has less than 5 percent of the world’s population but

it uses 26 percent of the oil, 25 percent of the coal, and 27 percent of the natural gas consumed worldwide.

Historically, Europe developed by using its own carbon resources, i.e. its trees and agricultural production; carbon flows were essentially internal until the 1500s. During the next three centuries Europe’s development was greatly facilitated by exporting its people and importing resources from its colonies. Such activities are not open to those nations aspiring to Europe’s standards of living today. Interestingly, however, many naturally carbon-rich nations have been slow to develop and their per capita levels of wealth continue to be low. These are oil-rich nations such as Nigeria and those in the Middle East whose oil wealth brings in high revenues. Other factors must be at work to curtail the spread of wealth, such as the concentration of oil revenues in the hands of a few, corruption and war.

Table 8.2. GDP per capita for selected countries (data from Central Intelligence Agency, 2005)

COUNTRY GDP per capita COUNTRY GDP per capita

USA $37800 India $2900

Norway $37700 Vietnam $2500

UK $27700 Iran $2000

Singapore $23700 Zimbabwe $1900

Greece $19900 Sudan $1900

Oman $13400 Cambodia $1700

Saudi Arabia $11800 Iraq $1500

Argentina $11200 Rwanda $1300

Russia $8900 Chad $1200

Bulgaria $7600 Kenya $1000

Romania $6900 Ethiopia $700

Peru $5200 Burundi $600 China $5000 Somalia $500

Venezuela $4800 Sierra Leone $500

Albania $4500 East Timor $500

Data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita provide another measure of development. GDP is defined as a measure of the amount of the economic production, i.e. the total value of goods and services of a particular territory or nation per unit time (usually per year); it may be expressed on a per capita basis which facilitates comparison. It reflects wealth generation and is an accepted measure of national income and output.

Table 8.2 gives the GDP for selected nations and shows that there is difference of c. 750 percent between the richest and poorest nations. The

data also show that the richest nations are very rich and that the poorest nations are very poor. Many Sub-Saharan countries are amongst the poorest.

Calorie intake is a direct measure of carbon consumption, as is oil consumption. Brief details of both are given in Table 8.3 which highlights the low food and fuel consumption of Africa and Asia and the high consumption of North America and Europe.

Table 8.3. Approximate kilo calorie and fuel consumption per capita