Future Conditions without Development (2023) Traffic Volumes
Inherent Growth
The development is anticipated to be complete in 2023.
As agreed upon in the signed scope, to account for 2023 future conditions, an inherent growth rate of 2.5%
compounded annually over a three-year period between 2020 to 2023, totaling 7.69% growth of the existing volumes, was applied to all movements at the study intersections, to account for regional growth on the roadway network as well as any potential background developments unaccounted for within the vicinity of the study area. In addition, as explained in the subsequent section, five “background” developments within the vicinity of the site were included as part of the analysis.
The inherent regional growth volumes (for the period between 2020 and 2023) are illustrated in Figure 8.
Background Developments
In addition to the applied inherent regional growth reflecting increased traffic demand, a total of five background developments, with their locations depicted in Figure 9, were identified in the meeting with VDOT and Stafford County staff for inclusion in this study. The background developments included are as follows:
1. Centreport Industrial
o Located just north of the Stafford County Regional Airport, the site is anticipated to consist of approximately 80 kSF of light industrial use along Centreport Parkway. Of note, just prior to this study, a portion of the site was recently construct and is now in operation. Given the counts at the study intersections were taken prior to 2017, the entire site was considered a background development.
2. Centreport Stafford 95 Business Center
o Located just east of the proposed development, the site is anticipated to consist of nearly 488 kSF of warehousing use, according the Stafford County’s Department of Planning and Zoning.
Currently, the site is under construction.
3. Sycamore Grove
o The Sycamore Grove development is a mixed-use development just located south of the site across Centreport Parkway. Once fully built, the site is anticipated to contain 170 residential units and 130 kSF of commercial use (retail and office). As agreed to in the scoping document, this study anticipates a “Phase 1” portion of the development, consisting of 100 single-family dwelling units and 20 kSF of retail space. Based on a traffic impact study for the site (titled Traffic Impact Analysis for Sycamore Grove, conducted by VETTRA, and dated June 2016), a northbound left turn lane at the intersection of Centreport Parkway and Mountain View Road is anticipated to be constructed.
Similarly, it is anticipated that the eastbound approach would be restriped to have an Eastbound Left/Thru and Eastbound Right configuration. For the purposes of this study, these improvements were considered in the future conditions analyses.
June 25, 2020 35
4. McGrath RentCorp Storage Facility
o Located just west of the proposed development, the site is anticipated to consist of nearly 22.8 kSF of warehousing / storage uses, according the Stafford County’s Department of Planning and Zoning. Currently, the site is under construction.
5. Centerpoint Gateway (“Phase 1” – 60 kSF Retail and 90 room hotel)
o Located south of the site, the Centreport Gateway development is anticipated to be a large commercial development. Based on a traffic impact study conducted for the site (titled CenterPoint Gateway Traffic Impact Study, conducted by JMT, and dated October 2017), it is anticipated that the development would include 60 kSF of shopping center space, and additional 320 kSF of regional destination retail space, and a 90-room hotel. As agreed to in the scoping document, this study anticipates a “Phase 1” portion of the development, consisting of the 60 kSF shopping center space and the hotel. Based on a traffic impact study, the site plans to improve roadway capacity along Centreport Parkway at the I-95 ramps and at Route 1 with the inclusion of a dedicated westbound right turn bay at the I-95 southbound ramps, an extension of the westbound left turn bay at the I-95 northbound ramps, the coordination of the two traffic signals at the ramps, and signal timing adjustments at Route 1. For the purposes of this study, these improvements were considered in the future conditions analyses.
In order to include the potential impacts of the background developments in the future scenarios, the anticipated trips and roadway improvements associated with these background developments were taken into consideration.
The site trips generated by each of the proposed background developments are illustrated below in Table 12. The assignment of the background trips to the road network is depicted in Figure 10. Additional information, including the assignment of trips for each background development and relevant traffic impact studies, are included in Appendix F.
Table 12: Background Developments - Site Trip Generation
In Out Total In Out Total Total
Centreport Industrial TIA - ITE 10th Edition
General Light Industrial 110 80kSF of GFA 33 5 38 4 28 32 361
Centreport Stafford 95 Business Center - ITE 10th Edition
Warehousing 150 487.8kSF of GFA 65 19 84 23 63 86 849
Sycamore Grove - ITE 9th Edition - From Background TIA
Single-Family Detached Housing* 210 100DU 16 48 64 54 31 85 809
Shopping Center 820 20kSF of GLA 17 11 28 53 57 110 1,239
Subtotal 33 59 92 107 88 195 2,048
McGrath RentCorp Storage Facility - ITE 10th Edition
Warehousing 150 22.8kSF of GFA 22 6 28 8 23 31 82
Centerpoint Gateway - ITE 9th Edition - PM Peak Hour Trips From Background TIA
Shopping Center 820 60kSF 72 43 115 205 221 426 4,873
Hotel 310 90Rooms 29 19 48 28 26 54 433
Subtotal 101 62 163 233 247 480 5,306
*Note a 15% reduction was applied to the residential homes units.
Land Use ITE Code Size
--- W e e k d a y ---
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Daily
June 25, 2020 36
Figure 8: Projected Inherent Regional Growth Traffic Volumes (2020 to 2023)
June 25, 2020 37
Figure 9: Background Development Location Exhibit
June 25, 2020 38
Figure 10: Background Development Traffic Assignment
June 25, 2020 39
Potential Roadway Improvement(s)
As discussed in the scoping meeting, with the exception of the roadway improvements associated with the background developments, no other roadway improvements near or within the vicinity of the site are either fully funded or would be completely constructed by 2023. Thus, no other roadway improvements are anticipated to significantly affect future roadway conditions on the road network by 2023.
The anticipated 2023 future road network (without the development) is illustrated in Figure 11.
It should be noted that VDOT and the County are investigating potential improvements at the intersection of Route 1 with Enon Road / Cranes Corner Road, including a second northbound left turn bay from Route 1. For the purposes of the future capacity analyses, this improvement was not taken into consideration. However, it was included in the future simulation scenarios. Further discussion is provided in the Future Conditions without Development (2023) Simulation Analysis section of this report.
Future without Development Traffic Volumes
In order to forecast future roadway traffic volumes for the year 2023, the 2020 existing traffic volumes were combined with the inherent growth traffic volumes and background developments’ traffic volumes. The 2023 Future without Development traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 12.
June 25, 2020 40
Figure 11: 2023 Future without Development – Roadway Network Geometric Configuration and Traffic Control Devices.
June 25, 2020 41
Figure 12: 2023 Future without Development – Vehicular Traffic Volumes
June 25, 2020 42