Future direction

This exercise was the first attempt to use HandiResponse program to develop risk maps and create a dynamic spatial and temporal model for a disease which took account of spatial variation in susceptibility of local areas to disease establishment. It demonstrated that this approach improved the spatial fit of model predictions, without adversely affecting other aspects of prediction. As next steps, we intend to improve the user-friendliness of the program for users in countries at risk of disease outbreaks, and also to use the model to test different surveillance options.

5.6. Conclusion

Disease modelling can help provide general insights on disease spread, generate testable hypotheses, predict disease outbreak patterns and assess effect of control measures such as surveillance and vaccination campaigns. It can also facilitate decision making processes. This study demonstrated that a model which took account of risk maps could provide useful predictions of both temporal and spatial aspects of disease spread in a real disease outbreak, HPAI H5N1 epidemic wave II in southern Vietnam.

5.7.

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CHAPTER

6

6. HandiMap Assisted Risk-based Survey on Crimean