Future Dwelling Profile

In Australia, the main type of dwelling (78%) is currently the separate house. The proportion of separate houses has only decreased by 1% in the decade since 1997.

Flats, units and apartments account for 13% of the dwelling stock, with semi-detached, row and terrace houses accounting for 9%. The percentage of separate houses differs in capital cities: Brisbane has the highest percentage of separate houses (81%) and Sydney the lowest (61%) (ABS 2010a).The pattern varies from city to city as described below.

High concentrations of multi-storey residential apartment buildings are usually found around central business districts (CBDs), with decreasing densities towards the outer areas. The exceptions to this pattern can be found in Gold Coast city, where high-rise residential buildings extend along the coastline, and in Sydney, where higher density residential development can be found around each of the major centres encompassed by the metropolitan area (DIT 2010).

In Sydney and Melbourne, there is a significant increase in the proportion of flats and apartments built during the 1990s. In Sydney, nearly one in four people live in flats, units and apartments (ABS 2010). A recent study has suggested that there is a cultural or experiential aspect to housing preferences with 85% of migrants from European countries living in a separate house while 34% of American migrants and 41% of Asian migrants live in a townhouse or a flat (Deloitte Access Economics 2011).

Over the periods 1993/94 to 2008/09, the average size of a new detached house in Australia increased from 188.7 m² to 245.3 m² (ABS 2009). In 2009–2010, the most common dwelling was a 3-bedroom house (41%) and 28% of dwellings had four or more bedrooms (ABS 2010a). However, in 2007 more than three-quarters of dwellings in Australia had more bedrooms than were needed to accommodate the occupants (ABS 2007). According to a report prepared by Consult Australia (2011), the density of dwellings in Australia has been increasing but the number of persons per dwelling or per household has been decreasing. In the period from 1994/95 to 2007, the average number of bedrooms in dwellings increased from 2.88 to 3.06: at the same time, the number of persons per household decreased from 2.69 to 2.51. This trend of increased house size along with reduced persons per household has been noticeable since the

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves 83 early 1900s. Recently, the first sign of a change in this trend occurred with a slight increase in persons/household from 2.51–2.56 in the 2007/08 period (ABS 2009). This was attributed to increasing housing costs and the related trend of adult children staying in their parents’ home into their 20s.

Since the 1990s, the density of new housing development has increased. A study conducted by Hall (2009) of housing developments in a number of states found a net density in pre-1990 housing developments of 9-13 dwellings per hectare (dph) with the density of more recent developments ranging from 13-23 dph. Hall (2009) maintained that while this falls short of the densities found in European cities, it has combined with smaller lot sizes and larger house sizes to drastically reduce the size of the traditional Australian backyard. The average floor area of new homes in Australia has increased with recent figures indicating that these new homes are now the largest in the world (ABS 2009). At the same time, lot sizes in many new housing estates are only about a third of the size that they were 50 years ago. Houses have less space between them, privacy is an increasing issue and it is more difficult to open windows and doors for natural ventilation. In many new housing estates, the usable outdoor area is less than 50 m²: this has implications for green spaces such as gardens and trees, and for stormwater retention.

The factors that will affect future dwelling structure in Australia include population growth and profile, household structure, current housing stock, location, migration and social acceptance (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1: Dwelling dynamics in Australia

Australia’s population is both increasing and ageing. The population has grown substantially in recent decades with an annual growth of 1.4% during the last four decades (DSEWPC 2011). The total population reached 22,696,000 in September 2011 (ABS 2012) and the constantly growing population will be an important driver of demand for dwellings in the future (McLaughlin 2012).

The proportion of people aged over 65 is predicted to increase from 13% in 2010 to more than 23% in 2050 (Commonwealth of Australia 2010). This change in the demographics of the population will also affect the number of persons per household.

84 A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

For example, it is predicted that the proportion of single-person households will grow from 23% in 1996 to 28% in 2026 (Australian Government 2008). Estimates are that, in Melbourne for example, one- and two-person households will account for 90% of all new households by 2030 (Dept of Sustainability and Environment 2005). Donald (2011) pointed out that the household growth is greater than the population growth. He went on to say that the proportion of two-parent families is projected to decrease further from 31% in 2010 to 27% in 2030 (Donald 2011). Based on medium household growth scenario projections made by the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC), the number of households will increase from 8.7 million in June 2010 to 12 million in 2030 and the gap between supply and demand of dwellings is projected to triple by 2030, reaching 640,200 (NHSC 2011).

In addition, there is increasing stress on land, particularly in capital cities, and concerns about the affordability of housing. These factors combine to suggest that in capital cities there will be a higher proportion of flats, townhouses and apartments in the future. Governments around Australia are basing future housing policy on higher density and smaller dwelling size (City of Sydney n.d.; Dept of Sustainability and Environment 2005; Dept of Planning and Local Government 2010). This policy will influence the type of housing built between now and 2030–2050.

Ranged against these points are a number of factors. Replacement of housing stock is slow – “over the past decade Sydney and Melbourne have added on average 1.4% and 2.1% overall stock each year” (Kelly et al. 2011, p. 37). Single-person households may not equate to a desire for smaller dwellings. People stay in houses for a long time, despite changes in needs. Wulff, Healy et al. (2004) pointed out that “too great a trust in a demographic imperative in the determination of dwelling choice can lead to urban policies that fail to understand the complexities involved in people’s choices concerning dwelling size and type. The expectation that smaller households ‘need’ smaller dwellings often results from too static a view of the lives of persons in small households”.

Many people still favour detached housing and have misgivings about living in flats and apartments, particularly in those that are high-rise (Buys & Miller 2012). Consult Australia (2011) identified concerns about the social acceptance of increased density.

“The current focus on high density, high rise housing for urban consolidation in major cities has been largely driven by the desire by government and others for a quick fix to achieve the maximum possible ‘density benefit’ from the minimum available land area in the shortest time. In the longer term this ignores the clear potential adverse community and social implications of developing large concentrations of high rise, high density housing in inner urban areas”.

Change to the housing stock is partly dependent on what is available. Kelly, Weidmann et al. (2011) investigated the mismatch between the current stock of housing in Sydney and Melbourne, and the type of housing that respondents said they might prefer. Their report identified a shortfall, particularly in semi-detached houses, but also in apartments in zones around both city centres. This was supported by research undertaken by the Property Council of Australia (2012).

Residents were more likely to support, rather than oppose, a series of housing developments to would support population growth. The highest level of support was for:

new neighbourhoods of free-standing houses built on the outskirts of the city close to jobs; the conversion of old industrial sites to apartments and townhouses; and more medium-density housing (like townhouses) in middle and outer suburbs (p. 34).

Efforts have been made by some scholars to predict the dwelling structure of the future. Commissioned by the NHSC, McDonald and Temple (2009) applied a medium household growth scenario and predicted that there would be a higher demand at the

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves 85 national level for flats rather than separate houses. However, this pattern differs according to location.

In most regions, the expected relative increase in demand for flats would be higher than for separate houses. The higher relative increase in demand for flats would be particularly evident in Western Australia and in the balance of South Australia.

However, there are some exceptions to this rule. In Sydney, the relative increase in demand would be a little higher for separate houses than for flats and, in Queensland, there would be essentially no difference (McDonald & Temple 2009, p. 12).

As shown in Figure 4.2., the demand for semi-detached houses and flats is increasing;

however, it is clear that separate houses will still dominate the dwelling mix in the next two decades in Australia.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Number of dwellings, '000

Other Flat

Semi-detached Separate house

Figure 4.2: The underlying demand for dwellings 2010–2030, unit: ’000 dwellings.

Source: NHSC 2011

With this in mind, five case studies were selected for further analysis according to this future dwelling profile. The analysis of the performance of these dwelling types is provided later in this section.

Case study 1: a small, single-storey 2-bedroom house; typical new housing for those on low incomes and elderly people who are more vulnerable during heat waves

Case study 2: a 3-bedroom brick veneer home; a typical design for new houses Case study 3: a 2-storey home of new house design with a small allotment Case study 4: a 2-storey apartment; typical medium-height, medium-density

development

Case study 5: a 2-bedroom apartment in a multi-storey block (medium- to high-density development).

86 A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves