Egypt’s future is still very much in the making. With the new election, and the current situation between the SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood, the popular revolution seems to crack two central assumptions. On one hand, international actors became skeptical towards democratization in the region and define Arabs as not yet mature for democracy. On the other hand, many suggest that political Islam is the only alternative to dictatorship.
Will the Egyptian uprising translate into a transition to democracy? Today’s journals assess the Egyptian uprisings as incomplete, uncertain and unpredictable. However, regime change is a long process and the events in Egypt are still unfolding. Transitions to democracy are always difficult processes. This is especially the case when a civil war or a counterrevolution arises, as is happening in Libya. It may also encounter obstacles and disappointment despite the success of the uprising. Thus, it may be a matter of many years before we recognize if a democratization process has occurred and the region has become more democratic and peaceful.
Looking to history, revolutions seldom produce the egalitarian democratic free societies the people hope for. Will the future in Egypt resemble the French Revolution that led to the great terror, the Russian Revolution managed by Stalin or the Iranian Revolution that led to Ayatollah Khomeini? Will it take the path of Latin American and East European countries still managing their post revolutionaries’ traumas? Or will it end up producing the most democratic country in the Middle
East? Only time will tell how the transition in Egypt proceeds.
In Egypt, Islamists, the military, conservatives and reformers are struggling for power. John Goldstone (2011) predicts long abrupt government turnovers and policy reversals similar to what happened in the Philippines. Goldstone points out that all authoritarian regimes- including Haiti, Romania, the Philippines, Zaire, Indonesia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan- that collapsed in the last 30 years never succeeded by extremists. They are often subject to authoritarian tendencies, but not to an ideologically driven power. And this is reflective of the Egyptian situation.
For many young Egyptians, especially the ones involved in the uprisings that toppled the Mubarak’s regime, the Morsi elections did not satisfy their hopes for a revolutionary president. Millions protested for months yearning for fundamental reforms. Yet Morsi and his radical ideology spread fear and anxiety in the hearts of the Egyptians youth.
Egypt’s youth hold the responsibility to devise institutional mechanisms that allows for accountability. The first exercise of this fundamental power was initiated in the streets through protests, demonstrations and informal gatherings. However, to achieve a democratic transition, formal and institutional processes are of a necessity to achieve reforms and important constitutional transformations. In other words, young Egyptians together with their new president should work on a constitutional mode of democratic governance in order to achieve a successful transition towards democracy.
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