CHAPTER 4. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
4.2 Future Work
Recently, mathematical models have been introduced as a simple tool to enhance our understanding of the emergence, spread, and persistence of ARGs in the environment 116–
118. These mathematical models can lead us to find knowledge gaps and identify
parameters and processes that are important in estimate the risk of ARGs in the
environment. One advantages of modelling is that once calibrated models can be used to simulate different environmental conditions, which would be expensive to test in the lab. Mathematical models for plasmid transfer in batch systems, biofilm, and solid surface have successfully been explored 119–121. For example, the ‘end point’ approach by Simonsen et al. is one of the most popular models in plasmid transfer in a batch system
122. However, due to the complexity in operation, continuous cultures (chemostat) has not
been used for plasmid transfer experiment, let alone being modelled. However, the mathematic principal of chemostat reactor has been extensively studied and well- understood. Hence, this experimental design is a promising approach in order to better understand the circumstance in the environment using data acquired from chemostat reactors. Then, by establishing a model calibrated using the data from the chemostat reactors, we will be able to predict the proliferation of ARGs in surface water under other environmental conditions.
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