Future work

The downburst frequency for the entire AoS was previously known, but the

geographical distribution across the AoS was not. The results of this research determined a distinctive non-uniform pattern. A future project might include the investigation of maximum wind speed distribution at each tower location so that the probability of meeting or exceeding any speed threshold, given that convective winds occur, can be found.

Yet another possible future project is normalizing the downburst frequency to the same 300 ft tower reporting level. Most of the towers have a highest reporting height of 54 ft, but others have higher heights. Since the 45 WS convective wind warnings are for up to 300 ft, the analysis would benefit for using the surface to the highest height which should include the highest wind speeds due to reduced surface friction. In particular, this may reduce the magnitude of the local maxima of downburst frequency in this analysis at

the highest towers and reveal a more representative pattern of downburst frequency across CCAFS/KSC. But, preliminary work still suggests that there is still a preference for the maxima near the coast and the contour map in Figure 24 illustrates this. The map is for the PoR with some data omitted; that data is for the towers with sensors at greater than 54 ft AGL.

Finally, the downburst analysis should be expanded to include the warm seasons at CCAFS/KSC since the last year the Plymouth State University database. This will increase the sample size and yield more statistically robust results.

Figure 24. Geographic distribution of CWE frequency per year as in Figure 11, except with the data for towers with sensors at greater than 54 ft AGL removed. The frequencies are in red and the contours are for 1 CWE per year.

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The geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida

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14. ABSTRACT

Strong winds from downbursts pose a significant hazard to personnel and launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The CCAFS/KSC complex has a robust mesonet from which an 18 year (1995-2012) warm-season convective wind climatology (WSCWC) was developed (Koermer 2017). While the frequency of downbursts in the area has been determined, the frequency at the individual tower locations has not. The 5-minute peak wind data from the WSCWC was analyzed to determine the geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida. For this project a downburst was determined by the threshold of peak wind speeds greater than or equal to 35 kt. Data for each individual tower in the mesonet was analyzed to determine the frequency of downburst at that grid point. A distinct pattern emerged that showed downburst maxima near the coast and minima mostly over the mainland. It was hypothesized that Florida flow regimes have a significant influence on thunderstorm initiation and subsequent downbursts (Dinon et al. 2008, McCue et al. 2010, Lupo 2013).

15. SUBJECT TERMS

Convective Winds, Cape Canaveral, Downbursts, Downburst Frequency

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