FUTURENET Structure

Ase Future Renilient Aranntort Neteorun FUAURENEA) troject in tart of tse Adattaton and Renilience to Climate Change (ARCC) co-ordinaton neteoru esics ean enta/linsed in 2009 to facilitate neteoruing between 14 EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) funded projects (UK Climate Iktactn Prograkke 20(().

This interdisciplinary project was carried out /y a connortuk of uni/erniten, cokkercial coktanien, renearcs organinatonn and trofennional innttutonn. Ase kek/ern of tse connortuk are tse Uni/ernity of Birkingsak, Lougs/orougs Uni/ernity, tse Uni/ernity of Notngsak, tse Aranntort Renearcs La/oratory ARL), tse Britns eological Sur/ey B S), HR Wallingford, Neteoru Rail Infrantructure Likited, tse Innttuton of Mecsanical Engineern, tse Higseayn Agency HA) and WSP rout PLC. Ase project aim was to develop a methodology for assessing the resilience of the UK transport network in the face of forecasted climate change.

The project had a kult-disciplinary approach that includes travel behaviour surveys, impact of weather uton road traffic and tse e/aluaton of tse iktact of a eide range of tsynical trocennen on tse

resilience of the network. To illustrate the methodology across a range of modes (road, rail and air) a case study corridor was chosen.

FUTURENET Work Package 2 included ntudy corridor nelecton. Ase cane ntudy corridor in to illuntrate the variety of situatonn acronn road, rail and air. Ase cane ntudy corridor nelected ean London to langoe nince there is a range of climate across the south east to north west; it originates at London, a tolitcally and econokically iktortant city eits a sigs /oluke of traffic; and the route has a high /oluke of traffic uning eacs of tse koden to /e in/entgated an tart of tse trojectp road, rail and air Boucs et al. 2012). The route taken for this case study was decided for rail as the West Coast Main Line and for roads as adjacent to tsin /eing tse M74, M6 eits ottonal M( or M40 in tse nouts. A map showing these major routes and the surrounding area envelope is shown in Figure 4.2.1.

Figure 4.2.1 FUTURENET case study corridor major routes and surrounding area

The FUTURENET methodology was designed to be interrogated at several scales which are of use to several categories of end user (Dijkstra et al. 2014). The broadest scale is of the whole network (Figure 4.2.2), nuita/le for natonal tolicy decinion kauern and highlights the resilience of the UK transport network as a whole. The next level of detail is at a regional scale, where the resilience of the network is deterkined tsrougs tse aggregaton of ne/eral tsynical trocennen, tsin le/el in nuita/le for area transport planners (Figure 4.2.2). The most detailed level considers one of the physical processes in detail and tse renultng iktact on tse tranntort neteoru; interrogaton at tsin le/el is most suited to

Figure 4.2.2 Levels of interrogation into the FUTURENET project (Dijkstra et al. 2014)

The FUTURENET project (referred to as ‘the project’) comprises many individual detailed models that are aggregated to produce a measure of resilience. Some of these models are well understood e.g. rail buckling (Dobney et al. 2009, 20(0). Others, such as slope stability, are less well understood and are /eing de/eloted an tart of tse troject. It in tse de/elotkent of tse detailed kodelling of nlote nta/ility that is the focus of this PhD thesis (referred to as ‘the research’).

Figure 4.2.3 FUTURENET methodology. Developed at Loughborough University, published in Bouch et al.

(2012).

The FUTURENET methodology is shown conceptually in Figure 4.2.3. Ase route and kode are firnt nelected. Ase ncenario /aria/len are tsen net, tsene are eeatser /aria/len frok tse UKCP09 eeatser generator, inital conditon of tse infrantructure annetn and itn nurrounding en/ironkent frok annet data/anen and natonal databases such as those held with tse B S. Asene en/ironkental ncenario netngn are net alongnide uner /aria/len nucs an tse uner’n tercetton of failure. Ha/ing net tse inital route, kode and ncenario netngn tse kodel in ready to /e run. Ase ncenario eeatser conditonn are run for a net lengts of tke esics in tse intut to tse tsynical kodelling totology PMA in Figure 4.2.3);

tsin PMA in tse aggregaton of ne/eral detailed individual models (examples shown as SS, slope stability, and FF, flu/ial flooding, in Figure 4.2.3) which are also driven by weather inputs. The outcome of the individual models and, in turn, the combined PMT, produces an outcome event probability (OEP in Figure 4.2.3) which impacts on the capacity of a segment of railway or highway and has consequences for ningle and kulttle unern SUCn and MUCn in Figure 4.2.3), which in turn, impacts upon the demand for the segment. The impact upon the supply and demand of the segment of railway or highway cok/inen to iktact uton tse tke tauen for tse journey. At tse end of eacs negkent tse uner csoonen to contnue tse journey /y tse nake route and kode or alter tse route or tse kode untl tse journey in complete.

The slope stability weather threshold model is one ‘detailed individual model’ about a single aspect of tse tranntort neteoru connidering deterioraton of eartseorun. The detailed individual models (including models for ncour, rail /uculing, flooding and nlote failure (this project), as well as others) are useful in themselves for local route maintenance and engineering managers. These feed into the PMT which examines areas of the network vulnerable to more than one type of failure, e.g. slope failure and flooding, and is useful to regional planners.